With war with airline tickets go up or down?

[Frank O]

I've been wondering about this. Many say up because of oil prices. I say DOWN because there will PROBABLY be a drop in people who will travel. Right now I can get some round trip tickets to Kiev from Houstong for $600 something which is GOOD. However if they will drop even more...well you know.

[wilmc]

... in response to With war with airline tickets go up or d..., posted by Frank O on Mar 16, 2003

You may see some good "last minute" deals on the internet sites but the airlines have learned to cut capacity, flights, to keep their costs down and the fare prices constant.

[Antonua]

... in response to With war with airline tickets go up or d..., posted by Frank O on Mar 16, 2003

just to fill you in on a bit of interesting information when September 11 happended there was demonstrations in the main square supporting the attack.  There are a lot of arabs here in Ukraine.  If war does start then those thinking of visiting Ukraine should take extra care.

In most circumstances I think it is very safe to travel Ukraine, but the possibility of war can create circumstances that are not suitable for travel.

Having traveled during the last Gulf War I found that accomodation was easy, as was booking a flight, but the prices of air fares did not drop.

In 1991 the attack on Iraq was justified and the war was widely supported by other Governments.  There was an increased security presence, particuarly in Rome/Italy.

[Jack]

... in response to Re: With war with airline tickets go up ..., posted by Antonua on Mar 16, 2003

Antonua, where are all these Arabs you see in Ukraine?

Guess you should define "a lot"?  Is a lot 50, 100, 500 or 50,000, 100,000?  Can you be more clear as to what is "a lot"?

One reason I ask is that I see very few Arabs in Ukraine. I will define a few as having seen less than 50 since 1997.

[CS767]

... in response to With war with airline tickets go up or d..., posted by Frank O on Mar 16, 2003

I agree with Frank!

[micha1]

... in response to Re: With war with airline tickets go up ..., posted by CS767 on Mar 16, 2003

[This message has been edited by micha1]

Up, if not it will because,  we will be in North America
in the middle of a depression.
Watch,  Wall Street take a dive tomorrow morning.
Better watch later on tonight, the Far East market dive.

Sold everything last week,  it is so easy,
even the oil stock won't be worth sh't very soon.

[DanM]

... in response to Re: Re: With war with airline tickets go..., posted by micha1 on Mar 16, 2003

Micha1, I am honestly sorry I keep saying something different than you. Please do not take this personally. you really seem like a very nice guy, but I just have to disagree with you again.

The stock market actually had a huge upswing yesterday. Huge. The reason everything went up was due to market perception that the war would start quickly. The market, like the American people anticipates a short war and they want it to start as soon as possible. Uncertainty is one of the biggest things to keep the market down recently and a lot of that will be resolved very soon.

The North American economy is not going into a depression. In fact, most indicators show us pulling out of this funk a little later this year.

I got out of almost everything at the end of 2001. I only have 300 shares of a small tech stock inside a little IRA I hold. Just so you know, the stock went up 5.78 yesterday and it was largely due to the market's reaction to Bush's decision to start the war.

If you do not believe me, check and of the major news services. You will read the same story and same conclusion over and over again.

Keep smiling. Its not all doom and gloom.

[CS767]

... in response to Re: Re: With war with airline tickets go..., posted by micha1 on Mar 16, 2003

I would have placed a bet with you yesterday and now look what happened---up 282 points on the dow.cs

[wsbill]

... in response to Re: Re: With war with airline tickets go..., posted by micha1 on Mar 16, 2003

Double dip recession, followed 3-5 years later with a deflationary crash.

The economy is soft, but it will keep going.  I was calculating my stock market losses the other night... Since I'm 42 years old I'll have a $3000 write off going forward until I'm 63 years old (21 years).  You do the math. OUCH!

American actually really needs this economical crash to get people from being deep in debt, back to being savers.

Hence, when everyone turns in to savers.  It will mean people aren't spending money, but rather paying off their debts and then we'll probably be headed for a triple dip recession.

You would do wise to read up on some books on Deflation, by Gary Shilling.   I kick myself for not follow this guys' advice which is clearly ahead of the curve in financial logic.

Warren Buffett, is only investing in solid life sustaining companies (select utility companies), thus you have to heat your home in the winter time, but you can do without alot of extra unneed expenses.

You guys ought to see my tomatos & lettuce farm, my swank mobile home is long since paid for...  I'll just chuckle when I seen more & more companies filing for BK and laying off thousands of workers, can you imagine all those people that can't pay their house payment bills and the coming mass forclosures.

$100,000 homes in suburbia, with little demand for buyers, due to recessionary markets in a deflationary times and depleted personal savings.  Those home will drop in value to less than $50,000.   Home ownership in suburbia is no guarantee your property values will remain high, after all why are morgage rates still dropping... Everybody refinancing (borrowing money to pay off their credit cards) hopefully.

After the war the markets will bounce up, but it's a false rally as the current trend is still down.  Mr. Doom & Gloom.

[DanM]

... in response to Re: I love a good sell off and the comin..., posted by wsbill on Mar 16, 2003

The market has had a lot of corrections, but its never going to signal the end of the world. I don't think the dropping of the Dow was one of the seven signs or anything like that. As a result, I would not tell people to stock up on canned foods and shotgun shells just yet. : )

The whole thing with mortgages is one of the few things I can speak about with a great deal of certainty. I worked in the mortgage industry for about 7 years. The last 3 years were in the capital markets group of a smaller mortgage company. As a result, I have looked at more hard statistical data on mortgage performances than anyone would ever want to see. 100K homes will not drop to 50K prices unless you start looking at unemployment in the 25-30% range. Thats just not going to happen. Fundementals just don't support that sort of meltdown in our economy.

Yes you do have a segment of the population who spend more than they take home. These guys run up their credit card debts and bail themselves out be refinancing their first mortgage with a higher LTV ratio or by taking out a high LTV second mortgage. Some of these loans will, in aggregate, go up to 125% of the appraised value of the home. I just want to point out that this is only a small segment of consumers. Also, we have always had a segment of the population who would spend more than they earned. In the past, these guys would just go bankrupt and it would be over. Now, they refinance. I know I am starting to ramble a little here, but my point is to say that all consumers do not behave in such a manner. Even when they do, it does not mean they will eventually go into bankruptcy. In fact, less than 10% of the people who borrow so much will default on their loans. Yes loan defaults will go up drastically when we hit out next hard economic crunch (maybe up to 20% for high LTV borrowers), but this does not mean national housing prices will be totally tanked by rising defaults.

An important side note. Drops in stock prices often to not reflect on company fundementals in any direct way. As a result, it would be illogical to look at movement in the Dow as any sort of hard economic indicator. Yes there is some underlying bedrock of fundementals. I am certainly not saying that fundementals play no part in stock prices. I am only saying that a very large portion of a stocks value is speculative. Not fundemental. This is precisely because the last 15 years have seen Americans become much bigger savers than before. Why are people saving so much? Its because they do not think Social Security will take care of their financial needs in retirement. In fact, most people my age go under the assumption that social security will provide nothing for them.

Anyway, back to my point. I tend to ramble. : ) Since so many people have been socking away money in 401s and IRAs, the market has been flooded with money from mutual funds. Thats when you started seeing the automated trading by these massive funds causing huge daily swings in the market. Also, this is when you saw a larger and larger portion of stock values based on speculative drivers. This all happened because investment in the market outpaced real economic growth. Once such a large part of the aggregate market value became dependent on nonfundemental drivers, it also became suseptible to big drops when investor confidence falls. Understand? If people get spooked, then they pull their money out. If they pull their money out, then stock prices drop. Sometimes significantly. It does not mean that anything has necissarily changed on the income statement of balance sheet of the company. It only means that demand for that equity share has temporarily dropped on the market. Thats why is does not make sense to equate a market drop with a pending recession. At least not without a lot of other correlating factors.

Just wanted to put in my two cents. While high debt loads are never a good idea and dropping stock prices are a bummer, its not time to panic yet. Keep smiling.

[lswote]

... in response to Re: I love a good sell off and the comin..., posted by wsbill on Mar 16, 2003

I have never bought stocks and I don't know if I ever will, but the guy in the office next to mine at work says the moment bombs drop on Iraq, buy IDX stocks (don't quite understand what they are but he says they are some kind of a sampling of a bunch of blue chip stocks).  He says that the stock market will take a hard dip when the bombing starts and then slowly rebound a few days later to where it was, thus a surefire way to make some money.  His words, not mine.  Even if he is right, I don't understand the stock market well enough to risk money in it.  I have always said that I will risk my life, but not my money.  Thus I travel to Colombia, but don't invest in stocks.  Such is life.

[wsbill]

... in response to Buy as soon as the bombs drop, posted by lswote on Mar 16, 2003

Stocks are a worthless piece of paper, which is just a instrument for a company to make money - the ethical implications that senior officers and financial firms have totally demoralized investors by corrupting the system and I for one will never invest so much money into the markets.

Just like after 1929, I doubt if you could find many takers to jump back in the market after they had collapesed. If you look back, the markets really didn't take off on the huge runup as they have done until about 1989 or so...

Must have been that peace dividend and which just made everyone feel rich and of course the computer revolution, which is now over and the wifi revolution is amongst us, but it won't be anything like the last decade.

[LP]

... in response to Re: I love a good sell off and the comin..., posted by wsbill on Mar 16, 2003

...which suburb is that? The one out by the ceement ponds? Lol, could be Texas I suppose. People here in The Land of Gentry would kill for prices like that. Guess they'll just have to live off tomatoes and lettuce until the prices drop below 500K.

Btw, my digs (known herebouts as the Fortress of Squalitude) are paid off too. It's worth almost a cool mill and going up 20% a year. Funny thing is it's nothing to rave about, just a shack. Hell, I paid only 200K for it 10 years ago. You'll do well to remember that God is makin more people but He ain't makin any more land.

You're right about one thing though: Consumer debt is a killer. Until people learn to live at (or better still, below) their means they'll continue to get hurt bad.

[micha1]

... in response to $100,000 homes in suburbia?..., posted by LP on Mar 16, 2003

Hello LP,   when are you hopping over to Lachine,

After reading the above,  you scare me,
for my place was only offered 250 cnd, 180us,
perhaps because I didn't have a ceement pound.

[LP]

... in response to Re: $100,000 homes in suburbia?..., posted by micha1 on Mar 17, 2003

...and back Monsewer, sorry I didn't have time to say hello. I only drive the bus, I don't have any say on how long it stops for. I could be back soon however. Hell, the way things are going in the US, I'll be glad to "love it or leave it". Better still might be to buy some fatigues and head to Montana.

The polls show most of the American people are against this action (especially if we go it alone) yet the halls of Congress are silent. Not a peep from anyone. Where are our representatives? Forget about the crazed Texan at the reins or what eventually happens in Iraq, it's just another example of how the American people are ignored by those they elect to represent them.

On the other hand, whats up with yer bretheren back home? They forget WWII? I'm agin this war too but thats not the point. Normally I don't give a rodent's rectum about politics but this is a serious slap to the memory of those who bailed yer ass out. Anyone else who's visited Le Memorial de Caen and walked among the crosses at Normandy would also be offended. A least a little moral support would have been nice, even if Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf (commander of Desert Storm and opposed to the current action) said it best: "Going to war without the French is like going deer hunting without your accordian"