I've been wondering about this. Many say up because of oil prices. I say DOWN because there will PROBABLY be a drop in people who will travel. Right now I can get some round trip tickets to Kiev from Houstong for $600 something which is GOOD. However if they will drop even more...well you know.

... in response to With war with airline tickets go up or d..., posted by Frank O on Mar 16, 2003

just to fill you in on a bit of interesting information when September 11 happended there was demonstrations in the main square supporting the attack.  There are a lot of arabs here in Ukraine.  If war does start then those thinking of visiting Ukraine should take extra care.

In most circumstances I think it is very safe to travel Ukraine, but the possibility of war can create circumstances that are not suitable for travel.

Having traveled during the last Gulf War I found that accomodation was easy, as was booking a flight, but the prices of air fares did not drop.

In 1991 the attack on Iraq was justified and the war was widely supported by other Governments.  There was an increased security presence, particuarly in Rome/Italy.

... in response to With war with airline tickets go up or d..., posted by Frank O on Mar 16, 2003

I agree with Frank!

... in response to Re: Re: With war with airline tickets go..., posted by micha1 on Mar 16, 2003

Micha1, I am honestly sorry I keep saying something different than you. Please do not take this personally. you really seem like a very nice guy, but I just have to disagree with you again.

The stock market actually had a huge upswing yesterday. Huge. The reason everything went up was due to market perception that the war would start quickly. The market, like the American people anticipates a short war and they want it to start as soon as possible. Uncertainty is one of the biggest things to keep the market down recently and a lot of that will be resolved very soon.

The North American economy is not going into a depression. In fact, most indicators show us pulling out of this funk a little later this year.

I got out of almost everything at the end of 2001. I only have 300 shares of a small tech stock inside a little IRA I hold. Just so you know, the stock went up 5.78 yesterday and it was largely due to the market's reaction to Bush's decision to start the war.

If you do not believe me, check and of the major news services. You will read the same story and same conclusion over and over again.

Keep smiling. Its not all doom and gloom.

... in response to Re: Re: With war with airline tickets go..., posted by micha1 on Mar 16, 2003

Double dip recession, followed 3-5 years later with a deflationary crash.

The economy is soft, but it will keep going.  I was calculating my stock market losses the other night... Since I'm 42 years old I'll have a $3000 write off going forward until I'm 63 years old (21 years).  You do the math. OUCH!

American actually really needs this economical crash to get people from being deep in debt, back to being savers.

Hence, when everyone turns in to savers.  It will mean people aren't spending money, but rather paying off their debts and then we'll probably be headed for a triple dip recession.

You would do wise to read up on some books on Deflation, by Gary Shilling.   I kick myself for not follow this guys' advice which is clearly ahead of the curve in financial logic.

Warren Buffett, is only investing in solid life sustaining companies (select utility companies), thus you have to heat your home in the winter time, but you can do without alot of extra unneed expenses.

You guys ought to see my tomatos & lettuce farm, my swank mobile home is long since paid for...  I'll just chuckle when I seen more & more companies filing for BK and laying off thousands of workers, can you imagine all those people that can't pay their house payment bills and the coming mass forclosures.

$100,000 homes in suburbia, with little demand for buyers, due to recessionary markets in a deflationary times and depleted personal savings.  Those home will drop in value to less than $50,000.   Home ownership in suburbia is no guarantee your property values will remain high, after all why are morgage rates still dropping... Everybody refinancing (borrowing money to pay off their credit cards) hopefully.

After the war the markets will bounce up, but it's a false rally as the current trend is still down.  Mr. Doom & Gloom.

... in response to Re: I love a good sell off and the comin..., posted by wsbill on Mar 16, 2003

I have never bought stocks and I don't know if I ever will, but the guy in the office next to mine at work says the moment bombs drop on Iraq, buy IDX stocks (don't quite understand what they are but he says they are some kind of a sampling of a bunch of blue chip stocks).  He says that the stock market will take a hard dip when the bombing starts and then slowly rebound a few days later to where it was, thus a surefire way to make some money.  His words, not mine.  Even if he is right, I don't understand the stock market well enough to risk money in it.  I have always said that I will risk my life, but not my money.  Thus I travel to Colombia, but don't invest in stocks.  Such is life.

... in response to Re: I love a good sell off and the comin..., posted by wsbill on Mar 16, 2003

...which suburb is that? The one out by the ceement ponds? Lol, could be Texas I suppose. People here in The Land of Gentry would kill for prices like that. Guess they'll just have to live off tomatoes and lettuce until the prices drop below 500K.

Btw, my digs (known herebouts as the Fortress of Squalitude) are paid off too. It's worth almost a cool mill and going up 20% a year. Funny thing is it's nothing to rave about, just a shack. Hell, I paid only 200K for it 10 years ago. You'll do well to remember that God is makin more people but He ain't makin any more land.

You're right about one thing though: Consumer debt is a killer. Until people learn to live at (or better still, below) their means they'll continue to get hurt bad.

... in response to Re: $100,000 homes in suburbia?..., posted by micha1 on Mar 17, 2003

...and back Monsewer, sorry I didn't have time to say hello. I only drive the bus, I don't have any say on how long it stops for. I could be back soon however. Hell, the way things are going in the US, I'll be glad to "love it or leave it". Better still might be to buy some fatigues and head to Montana.

The polls show most of the American people are against this action (especially if we go it alone) yet the halls of Congress are silent. Not a peep from anyone. Where are our representatives? Forget about the crazed Texan at the reins or what eventually happens in Iraq, it's just another example of how the American people are ignored by those they elect to represent them.

On the other hand, whats up with yer bretheren back home? They forget WWII? I'm agin this war too but thats not the point. Normally I don't give a rodent's rectum about politics but this is a serious slap to the memory of those who bailed yer ass out. Anyone else who's visited Le Memorial de Caen and walked among the crosses at Normandy would also be offended. A least a little moral support would have been nice, even if Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf (commander of Desert Storm and opposed to the current action) said it best: "Going to war without the French is like going deer hunting without your accordian"