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... in response to re-uniting the soviet union....article, posted by cherokee on Mar 6, 2003

After meeting and talking with many expats of the FSU during my 3+ years of marriage to my ex-wife, I sense there is a love-hate thing going on between the smaller republics and mother Russia.  Russia treated many of these republics brutally over the years while it dominated the Soviet Union (politically, economically and culturally.)  The peoples of the different republics are very nationalistic and have their own traditions & languages, but had russian language and culture forced down their throats during the soviet era.  There was a sense of elitism towards Russia that seems to linger today.  Historically, it is not forgotten that the people of the smaller republics bore the brunt of the Stalinist purges.

However, there remains a strong longing for the relative economic comfort under the old soviet system of socialism, particularly given the abject poverty that is so pervasive in many of the smaller republics now.  The political climate may eventually force the leaders of the various republics to pragmatically form a more cohesive working relationship with Russia and the other republics in order to provide short-term economic relief.  However, given such a diverse group of peoples, I personally think it will be difficult to reassemble a coalition that much resembles the former Soviet Union.

... in response to re-uniting the soviet union....article, posted by cherokee on Mar 6, 2003

cowboys use to circle their wagons in the old wild west to fend off the enemy.

The ole'hunker down mentality won't dig them out of any financial holes or economy messes.

They know they've missed out on any real great expansion in the west and their feeble economies are on very wobbly legs, if the ole'USA economy is firing on all cylinders..so will theirs, but when were running on a couple of fouled plugs and the engines is out tune.  Well that pretty much sums up how their economy is going to fare.

Atleasts they've seen the bottom to their economy, we're just getting started on that slippery slope downward.

... in response to re-uniting the soviet union....article, posted by cherokee on Mar 6, 2003

..article. Yeah right! Another Iraqi lying claim..

... in response to re-uniting the soviet union....article, posted by cherokee on Mar 6, 2003

I think the dislike between Russia and Georgia is mutual. Georgians believe Russia is responsible for rebels trying to destabilize the country.  I don't think the Baltic republics would want to join up either because of their greater prosperity since the split.

... in response to Re: re-uniting the soviet union....artic..., posted by BubbaGump on Mar 6, 2003

Bubba, how might you bring: Estonians, Latvians & Lith... into this quandry?

... in response to Re: : Re-uniting the soviet union....art..., posted by BURKE89 on Mar 7, 2003

I don't think they would ever want to be part of the Soviet Union (or Russia) again.  Latvia appeared very prosperous relative to Saint Petersburg which is the only other place I visited.  Latvia had some houses going up in the countryside that looked to be from 2000 to 4000 square feet and are comparible to good middle class homes in the USA.  The homes were brick and very nice.  Estonia and Lithuania do well also from what I read.  The people leaving Latvia were almost all ethnic Russians.  I met maybe 16 Russians and one Lat.  Russians don't even want to learn to speak Latvian and one Russian girl I spent time with said she only knows about 30 words in Latvian.  

The countries that seem to want to get back with Russia are the ones that are not doing well, like Ukraine and Belarus.  Belarus is particularly poor.  

... in response to Re: Re: : Re-uniting the soviet union......, posted by BubbaGump on Mar 7, 2003

I don't believe that Ukraine wants anything to do with joining in any close political alliance with Russia. You've obviously never been to Lviv or Eastern Ukraine. They hate Russians, period. There is a strong movement inside Ukraine to stop teaching the Russian language in schools.

Belarus may be the desparate, redheaded stepchild of the FSU but they aren't making any overatures to be annexed back by Russia either.

I could foresee possible further fractures within Russia such as the far east (Kamchatka Peninsula). Just ask people from Vladivostok and they will tell you that they are Russian in name only.

... in response to Whoa there!, posted by Rags on Mar 8, 2003

As for the the people from Ukraine, you are 100% correct. They have no wish to join in a political union with Russia. Also I think a lot of Russians would not want Ukraine back if it was offered.

I remember that the president of Belarus wanted to reunited with the Russians a while back. Has he changed his mind again?

Don't know much about the far east breaking away from Russia, but I seriously doubt Putin will allow it. My guess is that he will do whatever it takes to keep the far east as part of Russia.

... in response to Whoa there!, posted by Rags on Mar 8, 2003

You could be right.  I have never been to Ukraine or Belarus.  I think some of this reunification speculation I have read about comes from the feeling of some that things were better in the old Soviet Union days.

... in response to Re: Re: : Re-uniting the soviet union......, posted by BubbaGump on Mar 7, 2003

As an answer to all of the posts above.
All of the ex-eastern countries will be somehow reunited
within 20 years as they will join Europe commun market.
Warsaw, Prague and Bratislava are, very soon, going to be admitted.
The others will follow.  Life as to go on.
Why did the turkish parliament voted not to have US troops on their soil,
because they want to join Europe.

... in response to Re: Re: Re: : Re-uniting the soviet unio..., posted by micha1 on Mar 7, 2003

Turkey is not refusing to support us because they want to join the EU. Turkey is refusing to support our war efforts because the war is very unpopular with their general population. The polls show Turks are very much against it. Although we do have the support of their military and we do have many friends in their government, they also have a lot of increasingly religous muslims who are against our presence in the region and especially against our occupation of Iraq.

As for the EU thing, thier actions actually work against thier ambitions for membership. Think about it. We have been the single biggest advocate for Turkish membership in the EU. In fact, there have been a lot of articles about American political arm twisting over the issue of Turkey being considered as a candidate. The EU has been, at best, lukewarm to the idea of their membership. Various human rights issues are always cited, but the big sticking point is thier occupation of northern Cyprus. Now that we will be less active advocates for Turkish membership in the EU, I think their membership is a long way off.

As for European attitudes towards the war, they are not as united as one might think. Eight countries signed an accord in support of us. I believe they were Spain, Portugul, UK, Denmark, Poland, Czechs, Italy and one other. This is more an issue of France and Germany against the US. Although it is the French ambition to speak for Europe, it is not a reality. At least not yet.

Although this is a big way for the French to convince themselves they are relevant in world politics, they have done little more than weaken NATO, the EU and the UN. Thats a heavy price to pay for them stroking thier own egos.

As for the Germans, I think thier motives are those of honest (if unrealistic) pacifists. Remember this is the country where the Greens are politcally relevant.

Hope I did not bore everyone with the long ramble. CNN.com and Foxnews.com say it a lot better than me.

... in response to Rambling points regarding Turkey and the..., posted by DanM on Mar 7, 2003

You said a mouth full but it was said well! My wife has business friends in Turkey and they are worried that the lower class majority may some day run things with that religous fanatic twist and turn the government up side down.
I can see why the common people of Turkey are against an attack on Iraq. I suspect an attack on any muslim country is viewed as an attack on their religion and the real reasons don't matter.
Mike

... in response to Rambling points regarding Turkey and the..., posted by DanM on Mar 7, 2003

I don't remember you but you're obviously a smart guy.

... in response to Welcome back, posted by BubbaGump on Mar 8, 2003

Thanks for the compliment. I remember you, but you were a pretty new poster around the time I stopped posting here. If you can check 2001 arhives, you will see a lot of me there.

How goes the search?

... in response to Re: Welcome back, posted by DanM on Mar 10, 2003

I am unemployed now but with plenty of money to spend on searching.  When I had my job I was always too busy to break away.  Now I can travel and actually visit somebody.  I hope I can get girls to consider me because if I was a Russian girl, the guy having a good job would be a major attraction.    

I'm in the winnowing process on the women but why is it none of the compatible big breasted women speak english?  Guess I'll have to settle.

... in response to Re: Re: Welcome back, posted by BubbaGump on Mar 10, 2003

Good luck with the search. If I can ever do anything to be of assistance, just let me know.

... in response to Rambling points regarding Turkey and the..., posted by DanM on Mar 7, 2003

Actually, it is an excellent analysis of the situation and articulated quite well. Kudos.

... in response to Rambling points regarding Turkey and the..., posted by DanM on Mar 7, 2003

[This message has been edited by micha1]

It is a sure thing Dan,  the US has many friends in their government.
But in the end they voted in their parliament,  the majority said no,
in democracy, the majority win, right.
If the democrat had the majority in the house or the senate,
what would happen, where would we be.

... in response to Re: Rambling points regarding Turkey and..., posted by micha1 on Mar 7, 2003

You are right about democracy prevailing. Democracy means the will of the people will eventually be heard. I just want us to all be clear about the voice of the Turkish people and what they said. They did not say "We are pacifists who are against war". It also was not some great expression of liberal solidarity against an American war. They did say that the US offer of payment for use of their bases was not enough. Simply put, the will of the Turkish people said it wanted to be paid more than we thought was fair.

All I can say is that they were greedy and their greed will hurt them worse than anyone else. Now they will receive zero cash from us, but the war will still proceed and the economic setbacks they predict will be paid for completely by their own people. Considering they already have a 90+ billion dollar debt, this does not seem too smart. Second, they will most like lose our support for EU membership. Also, they are very likely to lose billions in US aid that has come to be a staple of the Turkish economy. Simply put, they just lost their best friend and they don't even realize it yet. No matter how many casualties we have in Iraq, the American people will always wonder how many fewer casualties we would have had if not for Turkish greed. I imagine that question will come up every time Turkey comes to us with an outstretched hand and I imagine it will cause us to be a little less sympathetic for a while.

As for your question about how much different things would be if we had a Democratic majority in the house or senate, its an interesting question. First of all, I just want to remind you that the will of the people spoke when it gave the office of President and both houses of Congress to the Republican party. That whole democracy thing can be annoying at times. : ) Second, I wish I knew how things would be with the country if the democrats were in power. Unfortunately, its hard to tell because they have done such a poor job of articulating a comprehensive vision of what they see as America's best path to the future. Lets face it, saying they do not agree with the president is more of a reaction than an offer of an alternative vision.

... in response to Re: Re: Re: : Re-uniting the soviet unio..., posted by micha1 on Mar 7, 2003

Most of Eastern Europe is on the U.S. side of the Iraqi conflict, including Poland and most of Turkish parliment wants to let in troops they just don't have the majority needed ......yet. I figure they'll wait till fighting starts and then let us in, that way they cover their @sses.
IMHO

... in response to Re: Re: Re: : Re-uniting the soviet unio..., posted by micha1 on Mar 7, 2003

Turkey had a fear of negative economic impacts if they were dragged into a war.  Of course, after the vote their stock market crashed because Turkey needed the $30 billion that the USA was going to give them.  That's really a lot of money for a smaller economy.  They also have a rise in Muslim fundamentalists that swung the vote against us.

... in response to Re: Re: Re: Re: : Re-uniting the soviet ..., posted by BubbaGump on Mar 7, 2003

Sorry, to say this, but.
The Turkish Parliament did not vote against you or I.
The voted for us to have a chance to stay alive,  we should drink to them.
Because if the OIL WAR starts without  the U.N.'s consent.
No one will be credible anymore.
China, Russia and Europe will be needed to negociate with PyongYang.
North Korea is not like Irak, the likes of a junior high team facing the BUCS.
Last week they almost shot down a spy plane,  the warn them severely.
They do have the missiles and the nuclear war head, sure they can be destroyed
in a few hours, but how many missiles will they have time to launch,
what about the fall out of these bombs...etc.  etc...
Please try to rent movies,  like  "On The Beach", "Dr. Stangelove" or "Fail Safe".

... in response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: : Re-uniting the sov..., posted by micha1 on Mar 7, 2003

[This message has been edited by BubbaGump]

The view by most in the USA is that Saddam will very likely pass weapons of mass destruction to terrorists to use against us.  The fear is made very real by the attacks of 9/11 even though Iraq was probably not involved.  We could be wrong but the concern is not far fetched given the type of man Saddam is.  We believe France and Germany want to protect their own business deals more than world peace and hide the fact that they have been selling Saddam the materials he needs for weapons.  Iraq has billions in debt to Germany and France that likely won't get paid if Saddam falls.  This war will cost us a lot but the future costs and consequences could be far greater to our economy if we ever had another terrorist attack with chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.  Europe seems to have precious little concern for our safety.

If we wanted to start a war only over oil we would chose a country with a lot more of it, or one closer than Iraq.  Iraq has less than 6% of the world's oil.  The US gets most of our oil from Canada, Mexico and Venuzuela.  If we wanted oil from a middle eastern country Saudi Arabia has much more (like 25%) and would be an easier target.  

I know this is only the conservative viewpoint.  I did not really want to go into this discussion at all in this forum.

... in response to It's not about the oil, posted by BubbaGump on Mar 8, 2003

I always thought that Dubya's desire for a war with Saddam was to avenge his father's failure to remove Saddam from power.  I suspect Dubya's going to war - with or *without* international support.

... in response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: : Re-uniting the sov..., posted by micha1 on Mar 7, 2003

I don't think its really fair to characterize it as an oil war. Although its a convenient label, it does not acurately address the reasons given by the US, UK, Spain, Italy or Australia.

Specifically, we are there to get rid of Iraq's ability to create weapons of mass destruction and to change the regime in Iraq. Although many people ask what right we have to change a regime in another country, I think the potential threat he offers our country through the manufacture and distribution of weapons of mass destruction is enough of a justification.

Saddam's ties to terrorist organizations are clear. His willingness to use biological and chemical weapons against his own people and Iranians is well documented. Do we have to wait for another 9-11 before we act? If that is the proof desired by France, Germany, Russia and China, then they can just protest on the sidelines while we put an end to this threat.

As for Turkey's motives, I doubt they were thinking about our best interests when they voted against helping us. In principal they had agreed to help us. The voted was just a matter of haggling over the price of their help. Although your characterization of Turkish motives was very generous to the Turks, I think it would probably be more accurate to characterize them as mercenary on this matter.

As for the taint of oil greed, I would like to point out that the national oil companies of France and Russia make enormous profits from their oil concessions in Iraq. They enjoy very nice profits due to the current political situation in Iraq. When Iraq is under new management and the oil concessions open up to more competitive bidding, they will lose billions. I would like to also point out that we will not take Iraqi oil revenues to pay for our war costs. Bush is on record as saying it all goes towards Iraqi reconstruction costs (ie the Iraqi people).

No one likes war. I know I don't like it at all. If my preferences were the only factor to consider, then there would never even be another fist fight in this world. Unfortunately, sometimes wars are thrust upon us. Its a matter of choosing between two things we do not want. If given the choice between a war in Iraq or watching more innocent American men, women and children die, I will choose war every time.

... in response to Re: Re: Re: : Re-uniting the soviet unio..., posted by micha1 on Mar 7, 2003

I am under the impression that the Baltics (Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia) are also on track to join the West. All three receieved invitations to join Nato at the end last year and are slso on track to join the European Union.

Nato inviations: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2002/11/mil-021129-2b5eaeef.htm

European Union integration: http://www.tbr.ee/issues/vol20/eu.html