Help! The dolar is crashing!

[Cali vet]

Down to 2813 Colombian pesos from 2960 less than a month ago. The ATM banking system takes about 40 so that drops the dolar to about 2770. I remember getting only 975 in 1997. Hope that day doesn't return.

[Michael B]

... in response to Help! The dolar is crashing! , posted by Cali vet on May 14, 2003

I sent some today, after their 'cut', I got 2735 at Pete's wife's place. I doubt that their money is stronger, more likely our money is weaker.

[Bueller]

... in response to Help! The dolar is crashing! , posted by Cali vet on May 14, 2003

Just walked by a TV at the corner store and they were saying on the news that the dollar is going back up against the Real. This right after being informed that my rent is going up 20% :-(

[Pete E]

... in response to Help! The dolar is crashing! , posted by Cali vet on May 14, 2003

CV,
The dollar has been coming down for some time,long term trend.The Colombian Peso and the Argentine Real were just dropping faster.The dollar gained on the peso until recently,going to almost 3000.So now its 2800 +/-,still pretty good historically while it dropped euros to dollars,reverse ratio,.80 to 1.15,guess that would be
1.25 to .87 dollars to euro.So if you were European you saw pesos go to like 4100,proportionate to their currency.
The dollar is low because interest is low here to try to stimulate the economy.When that turns around,everybody thought it would be by now,it will go up big time.I predict 6000 pesos to the dollar in 2 years.
So when's our economy turning around?If you knew the answer you could make alot of money. I lost alot of money thinkng it would happen last year.Now everybody is cautious,probably won't jump on board till it really gets going.I'm guessing 6 months to 2 years,more like 6 months I thnk,but I've been wrong before.
So refinance your house now,its still good timing,you can get 4.5 - 4.75 % on a 5 year ARM.(fixed for 5 years,then goes adjustable)I'm doing mine twice this year,once to get in possition to get the 4.5 %rates and second to actually get them.I have somewhat stupidly doubled the mortgage on my house but will keep the payment about the same because of low interest.Then you can use the money to buy stocks when you think its going to go up.I would er on the waiting too long side this time.Been burnt twice thinking it was here.
Some of the tech stocks that dropped 98% could get you 1000%
return if they get back to 20% of where they used to be.The ones that don't just go under that is.
The Real is up,not just because the dollar dropped a little,but it was so low it had little place else to go.My tech stock theory that has not worked yet.
The other question is,whats the dirction of the Colombian pesos if the dollar stood still?It has been down,but could also come up if Uribe gets it together,but I wouldn't bet on it short term.People have done real well investing in Euros but it could go the otherway too.
I'm no expert,this is all general,I'm going to get all the imformation I can before I jump in again.But there could be,I think will be,a chance to make a fortune in stocks in the next 5 years,kind of the reverse of recent history.Someone said the best time to invest is when the blood is in the streets.If you didn't lose your money already.No pain,no gain,no risk,no reward.You puts up your money and you takes your chances.
But I would go refi to stocks(now to next 8 months),after and if you make a killing there then maybe some Colombian or other foriegn real estate,3-5 years out.
The dollar still goes a long way in Colombia though huh CV?I decided to stick around here and try to make more money.That convertible we are getting we couldn't drive around Colombia in we can get in a go anywhere here,no problem,free as a bird.Worth working a little for.But if my income was trully fixed I might think Colombia also.

Pete

[DavidMN]

... in response to Re: Help! The dolar is crashing! , posted by Pete E on May 14, 2003

Pete,

I know it's off topic, but I'll digress only briefly. I read that the Rothschild (sp?) family, who bankrolled centuries of European wars coined the phrase "buy when there is blood in the street, even when it's your own."  Wise advise most of the time, but we often don't have the guts (no pun intended) to do it.

David

[Pete E]

... in response to Re: Re: Help! The dolar is crashing! , posted by DavidMN on May 14, 2003

David,
Or sometimes theres blood but it will be more later.Ariba was up to 180.I bought it at 68,50,26(averaged 52)Sold it at $2.75.It went down to $1.40 in December 02,up to 4.20 by march,(300% in 3 months),now around 3.80.Actually I got out of the market when I ran out of money.I get $100,000 out of my refi next week,I  could get dangerous again.Caution is not one of my strengths,I always focus on the upside.I have been a real estate investor for 35 years.I understand it.I always figured if I got in stocks I would be the dumb money.
But the possibility of quick profits gets my motor running.
An optomist is a guy who thinks having carry forward capital gain loses is good because he could make some tax free money.The ultimate glass is half full.
But you can't beat the Bill Clinton real estate tax laws.When he was runing against Bob Dole in 1996 Dole had a tax plan,I forget what it was.Clinton countered with a plan even the real estate industry didn't have the guts to ask for.Would you belive $ 500,000 tax free gains on your principal place of residence(you can have 2) every 2 years?Thats the current law.You can do it every 2 years,again and again.My house went up $370,000 in the last 4 years.But  I didn't sell it,just puled the money out in refi's.good thing we have that law.Otherwise I could sell it and owe more tax than I would get money out of it.

Pete

[lswote]

... in response to Re: Re: Re: Help! The dolar is crashing!..., posted by Pete E on May 15, 2003

Wow, $370,000 gain in 4 years!  I thought my $40,000 gain in 2 years was good.  But I don't intend to be as bold as you and pull any money out.  I will gamble with my life, but not with my money.

[Pete E]

... in response to Re: Re: Re: Re: Help! The dolar is crash..., posted by lswote on May 15, 2003

Bruce,
California Bay Area values are crazy.Just take what it is in most part of the country and multiply it by about 3 to 5 times.
Being a Realtor I get this shock factor from people coming from other parts of the country."You can buy a mansion where I come from for $300,000.Here you get a little 2 bedroom condo."
Comes with the territory,I  say.This is not Little Rock.If you are going to be here you need to be getting a salary that compensates you for the higher housing prices.Sometimes the answer is,it doesn't.I say why are you here?They say because I can't even get a job where I come from.AHa,we are comparing a fictious situation then,if you don't even have an income there.
Bottom line,only a portion of your income goes to housing.That portion,not all your income needs to be higher.
So if your house payment is 3 times what it was and it was elsewhere and was 20% of your salary,you need to make 40% more.The 40% more you are paying in house payment,not three times the salary.Other costs are baically the same as elsewhere.
Also,this is HUGE.The biggest advantage of real estate is appreciation.Particularly when something you owned 5% of doubles in value and now you own 52.5% of it.Follow the math?$100,000 house,$5000 yours,$95000 bank.It goes to $200,000.Now $105,000 yours,$95000 bank.Your $5000 went to $105,000 or 2000%.All of these houses that are so expensive,someone made big $$ on.The first house I bought in California was $22,000.Its now worth $750,000.I could have kept it but didn't know better at the time.I was happy to make $2000 on it.Cut my efective house payment down to $75 a month.
If I kept half the property I once owned I would be very rich.But I have a weakness,I spend money as fast as I make it ,sometimes faster.So lots of my propeties I sold,took a small profit,spent it and moved on.My  son has $1,000,000 equity in real estate,most of it coming in the last four years.He got his ideas and guts from me,his carefull spending habits from his mother.He was able to keep his properties.
Will the bubble burst?After watching it for 39 years here,its been mostly up with few downs.Even with unemployment going from .5% to 7% here,prices except for really big buck stuff,have held.The other 93% are making good money and need a place to live.There is shortage of property for them to bid on,even now.Unless companies move out in droves,which has never happened,I think the long term direction is up more.Short term is more difficult,long term you always win here,so far.
Uh,we got off point again huh?Mention politics or economics and I'm off and runing.

Pete

[Pete E]

... in response to Help! The dolar is crashing! , posted by Cali vet on May 14, 2003

CV,
The dollar has been coming down for some time,long term trend.The Colombian Peso and the Argentine Real were just dropping faster.The dollar gained on the peso until recently,going to almost 3000.So now its 2800 +/-,still pretty good historically while it dropped euros to dollars,reverse ratio,.80 to 1.15,guess that would be
1.25 to .87 dollars to euro.So if you were European you saw pesos go to like 4100,proportionate to their currency.
The dollar is low because interest is low here to try to stimulate the economy.When that turns around,everybody thought it would be by now,it will go up big time.I predict 6000 pesos to the dollar in 2 years.
So when's our economy turning around?If you knew the answer you could make alot of money. I lost alot of money thinkng it would happen last year.Now everybody is cautious,probably won't jump on board till it really gets going.I'm guessing 6 months to 2 years,more like 6 months I thnk,but I've been wrong before.
So refinance your house now,its still good timing,you can get 4.5 - 4.75 % on a 5 year ARM.(fixed for 5 years,then goes adjustable)I'm doing mine twice this year,once to get in possition to get the 4.5 %rates and second to actually get them.I have somewhat stupidly doubled the mortgage on my house but will keep the payment about the same because of low interest.Then you can use the money to buy stocks when you think its going to go up.I would er on the waiting too long side this time.Been burnt twice thinking it was here.
Some of the tech stocks that dropped 98% could get you 1000%
return if they get back to 20% of where they used to be.The ones that don't just go under that is.
The Real is up,not just because the dollar dropped a little,but it was so low it had little place else to go.My tech stock theory that has not worked yet.
The other question is,whats the dirction of the Colombian pesos if the dollar stood still?It has been down,but could also come up if Uribe gets it together,but I wouldn't bet on it short term.People have done real well investing in Euros but it could go the otherway too.
I'm no expert,this is all general,I'm going to get all the imformation I can before I jump in again.But there could be,I think will be,a chance to make a fortune in stocks in the next 5 years,kind of the reverse of recent history.Someone said the best time to invest is when the blood is in the streets.If you didn't lose your money already.No pain,no gain,no risk,no reward.You puts up your money and you takes your chances.
But I would go refi to stocks(now to next 8 months),after and if you make a killing there then maybe some Colombian or other foriegn real estate,3-5 years out.
The dollar still goes a long way in Colombia though huh CV?I decided to stick around here and try to make more money.That convertible we are getting we couldn't drive around Colombia in we can get in a go anywhere here,no problem,free as a bird.Worth working a little for.But if my income was trully fixed I might think Colombia also.

Pete

[Bueller]

... in response to Help! The dolar is crashing! , posted by Cali vet on May 14, 2003

It's happening here in Brazil as well with the Real. I have to keep reminding myself that what is a small sacrifice for me as a relatively rich Gringo is a big relief for 170 million Brazilians.

[Brazilophile]

... in response to Re: Help! The dolar is crashing! , posted by Bueller on May 14, 2003

The rise of the real has been spectacular these past few months!  When I made my trip in February of this year, the exchange rate was 3.55.  I was checking rates this morning and the real traded at 2.85.  That's a 20% increase in 3 months!!!

Not to get off topic, but one contribution to the dollar's free fall is proposed the tax cut and the projected consequent deficit increase. The rest of the world is losing confidence that the US economy can sustain this in the long run.  Remember, the US deficit is financed by Japan and Europe buying US Treasury Bills.

[Celt]

... in response to Re: Help! The dolar is crashing! , posted by Bueller on May 14, 2003

The Mexican peso has also climbed about 10%. For Latin
America, it is instant debt-relief!