What's going on here

[TimInUkraine]

I think the prospect of revolution here is overblown. Yushenka's supporters simply don't have the numbers to do much of anything peacefully, much less violently. Sure the Supreme Court will review the elections, but I have this Election 2000 feeling about the whole thing. People see the Court's decision to halt the publication of the results (and thus, constitutionally, temporarily stopping Yanukovich from becoming president-elect) as a hopeful move for pro-Yushenka supporters. It seems to me, however, that with all the accusations of fraud and legitimacy, it is the smart thing to do, especially if the court has already made up its mind before the discussion of the allegations (the common practice of the legal process here). If I were Yanukovich, I would welcome the Court doing this. If the court rules the elections are legitimate, it takes away a lot of the ethos of Yushenka's protest--at least with enough of the swing voters that any fear of revolution will be dissapted (sound familiar?)

The calls for a general strike are ridiculous. It's colder than John Ashcroft's heart here, and most people don't have the money to hoard food and supplies. A general strike could mean that people would freeze and starve. And who is this going to punish? Kuchma? Yanukovich? No, and Yushenka, Timoshenka et al aren't going to suffer either. A general strike would only turn sympathies against Yushenka.

It's easy to write off the people in this country as having nothing to lose. Granted, they have little, but living on the borderline of poverty, as so many Ukrainians do, makes people hesitant to disrupt the system. They remember what real poverty and insecurity was (less than a decade ago). It's also easy to fall into the mindset that anybody here who cherishes this country's ties to Russia has been duped. Most of the people I know consider themselves to be Russian (or at least of Russian ancestry) and virtually all speak Russian and know Ukrainian about as good as I know Spanish. But then I don't get out to the villages or to the West that much.

What's at stake here? For Ukrainians not so much. The differences between the two candidates seem to be mostly rhetorical. Whoever wins, not much will change, at least not in the near future. But if you really are rooting for Yushenka, realize that he has a lot of support among the young people, while Yanukovich has a lot of support among older Ukrainians. Be patient, the average life span isn't that long over here...........

[romachko]

... in response to What's going on here, posted by TimInUkraine on Nov 26, 2004

I arrived at Simferopol on the day of election. Krim is 70% Russian and most people want to belong to Russia. My fiancee says that most people even in Kiev speak Russian, not Ukrainian. There seem to exist red states and blue states there too, but red states prevail. Many people love strong Putin. It is interesting to know that Ukraine is enjoying economic growth, spilled over from neighboring new EU nations. On the other hand Russia is now the seond largest oil producer in the world.

Putin is reviving nukes. It seems to me that Putin does not trust the U.S., especially after Iraq. After all Bush has proved, "Might is Right." If you have overwhelming fire power, you can do anything you want by totally ignore world opinion. They can bad-mouth about you but nobody can touch you. Putin knows it. Russian cannot touch the U.S. but the U.S. cannot touch Russia either as long as they have enough nukes to wipe out USA.

[wsbill]

... in response to What's going on here, posted by TimInUkraine on Nov 26, 2004

[This message has been edited by wsbill]

We should seriously think about do we really want a free Ukraine ?  No.  We want to go their and exploit the heck out of their poor women.  Get real if you think otherwise.

Look at all the other countries that have raised their standard of living only to rebuff American men.

Hey, Jack.  I saw your recent batch of pictures and I think I've seen better lookin women in Memphis, talk about a picked over place.  Where are those greener pastures of pretty women at

Course, whatever happen to those MOB from the Czech, Poland, E.Germany ?  As soon,  as their economies recovered do you really think these women wanted to leave their homelands, notta.

The word of the day is exploitation.  It's like do you really believe she loves you for that bald spot on the top  of your head and that 30 year gut?  Hardly, it's all economics to her.  It's a real plus if you a nice guy - with money as well.

[romachko]

... in response to Re: Good points ... I mean, something, posted by wsbill on Nov 26, 2004

You are one of very few honest guys. Everyone on this board is thinking the same way as you do but is afriad to say it. Yes, "IT IS ECONOMICS STUPID!" If not, why they bother to go all the way to Russia. I have to add one more thing. Exploitation is two-way street. They exploit us too. Both sides have to watch out carefully.

Exploitation or not, if the end is good, it is nobody else's business.

[Streetwise]

... in response to Re: Good points ... I mean, something, posted by wsbill on Nov 26, 2004

Haven't posted here for a while, but couldn't ignore the above comment. The USA has always seemed to me a country of extremes, very good and very bad, but never on the sidelines. It's a great nation and I have always respected its highest ideals. But wsbill, you are at the other end of it.

[LP]

... in response to wsbill as US Ambassador? , posted by Streetwise on Nov 27, 2004

[This message has been edited by LP]

...WS's comment above is one of his few (very few mind you) that actually makes sense. I want Ukriane to move forward also but there is no doubt that when it gets there the MOB thing will dry up faster than spit on a Phoenix sidewalk. And although I'd like to see Ukraine move move towards the west the last thing is want is to see their culture become anywhere near the cesspool America's has become.

Btw, high ideals are nice but pretty much worthless if not put into practice. Not to mention it's a travesty if they're acheived and then lost.

[wsbill]

... in response to wsbill as US Ambassador? , posted by Streetwise on Nov 27, 2004

LOL.  Your living in a real time warp if you think times have actually changed and Ukraine or China are free societies.

We're not in a COLD WAR anymore, but in a ECONOMICAL WAR.

Industrial Espionage is a term more America's should be concerned about.

[wsbill]

... in response to Re: Good points ... I mean, something, posted by wsbill on Nov 26, 2004

If you look at the dynamics of the electorial process in Ukraine you got the orange party which is acting like the Democrats here in the USA.  And then you got the Putin party, which are acting like the Republicans.

Hey, 2 party system is alive and well.

[wsbill]

... in response to Re: Something else...., posted by wsbill on Nov 26, 2004

If their is a coup by the Putin backer the best things Ukrainians should do is leave their country in droves.

Which will clearly happen, their population rates are dwindling and AIDS is in full tilt.

Russia is in the same boat, their populance is drying up and withering away.  I see, China a clear victor to that struggle...What do you wanna bet.

China in the next 25 years is going aquirer vast land masses from Russia.

Think about it.  Alot of Russians have that Chinese look to them.  China has not other direction of growth but inland.

Course, they've got AIDS too.  But way, way more people and they muliply faster than rabbits.

Russia is so pre-occupied with the West.  That they've left their back door open and guess who's going to come waltzing in.

What kind of geographical resources would this give to China ?  Vast deposits of oil no doubt, timber, minerals.  You think China is big now, just wait!

[romachko]

... in response to Re: One more before the road...., posted by wsbill on Nov 26, 2004

Russia has an abundance of natural resources in Siberia but not enough labor to explore it. They are hiring Chinese to dig up permafrost. Chinese ancestors lived there, as proved by their tombs, when Siberia was nobody�fs land. Eventually those Chinese working there will claim Siberia is their property. If the present demographic trend continues, Russia�fs population will be down 50 % by 2070. But Muslim population will grow substantially.

China will eventually swallow Japan and Korea. Japan has the lowest birth rate in the world, less than 1.3 per couple. There will be eventual confrontation between the U.S. and China in some distant future. Remember Japanese economic dominance in 80�fs? It is Mickey-mouse compared to Chinese economic dominance in the near future. China is expected to surpass Japan as the second largest automobile owner in very near future. The huge population and land are hard to argue. Chinese are short people but the tallest guy is the tallest even in NBA. This proves what the large population does. They have more smart and talented people than other countries simply because there are more people. How to release this population pressure? Hopefully they become a totally capitalistic nation, where the individual companies pushes their interest above their country�fs.

[wsbill]

... in response to Re: Re: One more before the road...., posted by romachko on Nov 27, 2004

They're going to want the path of least resistance and the Russian economy will always be fragile without major Western Industry.

Russia's AIDS is massively underminding their efforts to regroup and child birth rates will continue to fall.  They've lost that war.

I think Sibera is fertile ground for the Chinese, didn't know they were diggin up the permafrost.  But, ya know it shouldn't be a real suprise to anybody that Russians really evolved from Western Europe who just moved eastward on their on economic expansion hundreds of years ago.  Probably thousands or more.

Ah!  Let's see.  We American came from West Europe as well. So, given that and our declining birth rates, we'll probably be moving back in 200 years when the Mexican purge us from North America.  Or we marry into them and after about 500 years, they can call themselves native americans.

hi hi - with light fare skin to boot.

[romachko]

... in response to Re: China won't move on Japan or Korea's, posted by wsbill on Nov 28, 2004

Never underestimate Chinese. Even mighty Mongols were absorbed by Chinese by invading China! No offense to Chinese but Chinese merchants are just about the shrewdest, or the smartest in polite expression. In a way I admire them. Here is a joke. When a Chinese merchant receives money, he counts bills from the top one by one. When the last bill appears, he would not lift it but put all the counted bills back on top of the last bill and collect them all. Why? You have at least the money you wanted. In addition, more could be hiding the last bill. So, why check if there is more?

Chinese absorbed Manchuria, whose emperor once controlled China. Manchuria has been Chinized. They don't call it Manchuria any more; they call it East-North Region. They used to have their own language and characters (derived from Arabic), which have pretty much disappeared. Tibet is on the same way too. China has one big problem just like Russia: growing Muslim population, which won't melt in the main stream. Urmuqi, the last Chinese point of the Silk Road (Seiden Strasse), to China is Chechen to Russia.

Any way, Russia and China are in collision course and China will more likely prevail. Like the second law of thermodynamics energy flows from high potential to low potential. The population pressure is hard to contain. We don't have to look around very far because we have our own example. Good or bad? Many conservative people take it as negative but I would rather reserve my judgement because value is a function of time.

[LP]

... in response to Re: China won't move on Japan or Korea's, posted by wsbill on Nov 28, 2004

[This message has been edited by LP]


..Path of least resistance? You need to study up on WWII and how the Russians performed or how any nation acts when faced with invasion. Try looking at Iraq for example. You be loco Bill, I have no idea where you pull this stuff out of.

[tim360z]

... in response to What's going on here, posted by TimInUkraine on Nov 26, 2004

and good points.  In the media I just don't see the numbers of people growing.  Other Eastern European countries had much larger crowds.  And it does look cold out on the streets.  The courts ruling could be deceptive,  depending on one's interpertation of the ruling.

But,  it is a beginning which won't be forgotten by either side.  Each will learn from this.