Philippine Economic Outlook

[Ray]

 
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Philippine economy to reach 16th place by 2050
　
Manila Times
Published : Friday, January 13, 2012
Written by : KRISTA ANGELA M. MONTEALEGRE reporter
　
THE Philippines will be among the emerging economies that will play a significant part in the global growth in the next few decades, surging 27 places to become the 16th largest economy by 2050, said HSBC.

In its "The World in 2050" report, the bank cited the Philippines and Peru, which will jump 20 places to become the 26th biggest economy during the same period, as joining China in powering global growth over the next four decades.

Its ranking is based on an economy’s current level of development and factors such as current income per capita, rule of law, democracy, education levels and demographic change.

"Plenty of places in the world look set to deliver very strong rates of growth. But they are not in the developed world, which faces both structural and cyclical headwinds. They are in the emerging world," the bank said.

China is set to displace the United States as the world’s biggest economy by 2050 with strong growth rates in other developing countries seen to drive global growth.

The Philippines, in particular, is poised for a multi-decade run.

"The star performer [in Asia], however, is the Philippines where the combination of strong growth fundamentals and powerful demographics gives rise to an average growth rate of 7 percent for the coming 40 years," the report read.

The Philippines and Peru, which should have an average annual growth of 5.5 percent in the next four decades, were listed under the 26 fast-growth economies. They are characterized by low level of development but possess sufficiently strong underlying fundamentals.

Developed nations may lose the advantages of "starting from behind" as they become wealthier and technology more sophisticated.

"The initial years of development could be described as ‘copy and paste’ growth, as countries open themselves up and adapt to the world’s existing technologies . . . Once the ‘copy and paste’ growth is complete . . . it is at this point that many economies struggle and get stuck in what is often known as the middle-income trap," HSBC said.

"But many of the countries we are considering are still at such an extremely low level of development that there are years of this ‘copy and paste’ growth ahead," it added.

While the West is not getting poorer, its high levels of income per capita and weak demographics will limit growth.

"It is the small-population, ageing economies in Europe that are the big relative losers, seeing the biggest moves down the table," HSBC said.
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[thekfc]

That goes more in line with what I have been posting in the other thread.

[robert angel]

Believe it or not, I didn't want to get 'wordy' on the other related thread, because considering the main source, I knew where it  was going. As such  (which definitely proved to be the case, again), I just posted the below figures, thinking 'they'd speak for themselves'--ha ha--right! Some people, once they state their 'worldly' opinion, are immune to logic and persuasion, tendacies which will serve them poorly in the long run.
 
Note they are 2016 projections, 'estimates' for GDP growth, according to the International Monetary Fund...
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ASEAN_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
 
List of ASEAN countries GDP (nominal), International Monetary Fund 2016 estimates.

Rank	Country	GDP (millions of USD)
—	United States	18,250,647
—	People's Republic of China	11,779,979
—	Japan	6,782,937
—	South Korea	1,585,799
—	ASEAN	3,340,023
1	Indonesia	1,336,570
2	Thailand	498,495
3	Philippines	479,923
4	Malaysia	362,398
5	Singapore	318,915
6	Vietnam	230,341
7	Burma	63,689
8	Cambodia	21,081
9	Brunei	18,120
10	Laos	10,491

[Ray]

That goes more in line with what I have been posting in the other thread.

 
Exactly!