Debt Ceiling Nonsense and Value of US Dollar

[Brazilophile]

I checked the exchange rates for Brazil and Colombia this morning.  I was hoping to make a trip in September.

The exchange rate for the real is 1.55 reais/dollar.  That is the lowest I have seen in over 10 years!   I has been falling for the past 5 years but it was still as high as 2.50 just 2 years or so ago.  The real has taken off in the past year.  I am now not sure I can afford to make a trip this year as there is appreciable inflation in Brazil making the hotel, food, and taxis somewhat expensive.

I took a look at the exchange rate for Colombia for comparison.  It is at 1,770 pesos/dollar.  That is also the lowest I have ever seen it.  I have usually seen it in the 2,200 - 2,400 range and as high as 2,700.  For the guys in Colombia right now, what are the prices of regular stuff there like?  How much is a Big Mac after converting into dollars?

I am worried that our loser politicians won't get their act together today and tomorrow and leave us hanging in the wind.  The rest of the world will start dumping dollars and our dollar will become "as valuable as a peso", in the words of an analyst on CNN.

Are any others getting their travel plans squeezed by the circus going on in Washington, DC?

[euforia51]

I am worried that our loser politicians won't get their act together today and tomorrow and leave us hanging in the wind.  The rest of the world will start dumping dollars and our dollar will become "as valuable as a peso", in the words of an analyst on CNN.

Are any others getting their travel plans squeezed by the circus going on in Washington, DC?

The best thing you can do for yourself is keep your own house in order and don't watch or listen to what anyone else says about the clowns in Washington or anyone else for that matter. CNN and the rest of the media at large do one thing really well ... they scare the crap out of everyone and do very little with providing any factual information that's worth a damn. Both Washington and the media ought to be ashamed of themselves for the embarrassment they are causing this country in the face of the world at large.
 
I never thought I'd say this, but Glory asked me about the crisis going on right now and all I could say was that I was embarrassed for my country. I told her I wanted her to come live here one day and with a three-ringed circus for a government. It just doesn't seem right. Anyway...
 
As long as I am working and saving, none of this drama and hot air will effect my travel plans for my next visit to Medellin. My personal priorities are far more important than the perceived viewpoint and hot air from the media that is being blown in our faces like dope. The problem seems to be most of the country is high on this stuff. Do yourself a favor ... turn off the TV and live your life.

[Researcher]

    That's right take all your cash, buy Bear Stearns stock and don't worry...



        Researcher

[fathertime]

I think this debt ceiling debate isn't the real thing.  It should be, we should be trying to right the ship, but I don't think leadership will take the opportunity.   The American people should be very concerned but most don't have a clue how deep in caca we are.

Are any others getting their travel plans squeezed by the circus going on in Washington, DC? 

Our travel plans are not changing but I gotta say when the 3 of us hit Colombia, I don't plan on spending as freely as I might have in the past.  The airline tickets alone, are going to take a pretty big bite, if you know what I mean. 

Fathertime!   

[euforia51]

The American people should be very concerned but most don't have a clue how deep in caca we are.

I guess the lateness of the hour makes this as good a time to comment as any. I don't think the lack of concern by the American people is in question here. But I do think the lack of sufficient knowledge and real information without the televised drama and finger-pointing of these buffoons in Washington which is amplified to the point of revolting is hindrance and an insult. And in the end, what can one really do about it? Fire them all by voting them out? Sure. We all know how well that works.
 
While my first post may have sounded like I was turning a blind-eye and burying my head in the sand by suggesting you turn off the TV and live your life, I can tell you that I am doing just that. Do I really want to live in fear of the so-called end times just because the freakin' Dow dropped 50 points? I agree that there is a storm coming and the best thing you can do is prepare for it in a way that suits you best.  I chose the downsize your life, get out of debt, save your money, ignore the negative brainwashing tactics of the media, and by-god let go of this scary notion that the government is finally going to come around and make everything ok. The last thing we need is a so-called hero who lives in D.C. or dare I suggest you go watch a History Channel documentary or two on a man called Hitler who gained his power on a fearful and vulnerable population who was also waiting for their government to come around and make everything ok.

[fathertime]

I guess the lateness of the hour makes this as good a time to comment as any. I don't think the lack of concern by the American people is in question here. But I do think the lack of sufficient knowledge and real information without the televised drama and finger-pointing of these buffoons in Washington which is amplified to the point of revolting is hindrance and an insult. And in the end, what can one really do about it? Fire them all by voting them out? Sure. We all know how well that works.
 
While my first post may have sounded like I was turning a blind-eye and burying my head in the sand by suggesting you turn off the TV and live your life, I can tell you that I am doing just that. Do I really want to live in fear of the so-called end times just because the freakin' Dow dropped 50 points? I agree that there is a storm coming and the best thing you can do is prepare for it in a way that suits you best.  I chose the downsize your life, get out of debt, save your money, ignore the negative brainwashing tactics of the media, and by-god let go of this scary notion that the government is finally going to come around and make everything ok. The last thing we need is a so-called hero who lives in D.C. or dare I suggest you go watch a History Channel documentary or two on a man called Hitler who gained his power on a fearful and vulnerable population who was also waiting for their government to come around and make everything ok.

Euphoria,  I don’t want you to think I was referencing your post with my original comments.


  I think it is a good idea for some to not bother watching what is going on with the issues and this debt issue.  If a person doesn’t enjoy learning about how the govt. works through issues, then it is best to watch a good movie, or go to the gym, or do what is enjoyable to you.  For me, I’ve grown to love criticizing our govt. and have always enjoyed reading about financial related issues that interest me.  There is a ton of misinformation out there so it isn’t easy to sift through what is what. 


I’ve watched most of the Hitler videos in the past, his rise to power was fascinating.  In our case, I think most people want govt. to grow smaller and I don’t think the populace will stand for govt. growing too much more.  I’d like to think our current situation more resembles The Storming of the Bastille, rather than the Rise of Hitler! 


Fathertime!

[Brazilophile]

Our travel plans are not changing but I gotta say when the 3 of us hit Colombia, I don't plan on spending as freely as I might have in the past.  The airline tickets alone, are going to take a pretty big bite, if you know what I mean. 

Fathertime!

That is exactly what I am talking about!  The value of the US dollar falls so the dollar price of oil rises.  Airlines raise their fares, fees, and everything else.  The exchange rate with other countries falls so when we buy pesos or other currencies we pay through the nose.

I am not going to get into purely domestic stuff like 401(k) value, job furloughs, and salary cuts.  I am not independently wealthy so I have to set a budget and pay attention to my spending.   Right now Washington antics are both increasing my spending and making my potential spending more uncertain (more difficult to set a budget).  That puts my travel plans in greater flux.

If the state of the economy was such that I could compensate with more income, then this whole thread would be moot, but is not the case nor likely to be in the near future.

[euforia51]

That is exactly what I am talking about!
...
Right now Washington antics are both increasing my spending and making my potential spending more uncertain (more difficult to set a budget).  That puts my travel plans in greater flux.

If the state of the economy was such that I could compensate with more income, then this whole thread would be moot, but is not the case nor likely to be in the near future.

Back on track here with the travel plans. Just a hypothetical question ... how do the antics in Washington have anything to do with your travel plans or how much income you can generate? Unless you're a federal employee, I don't understand the connection.
 
Is the value of the dollar going to fall? Yes. Is it going to rise? Yes. Is the price of oil going to fall? Yes. Is it going to rise again? Yes. Can you or Washington change these events? Probably not.
 
It's unfortunate that the airlines are so short sighted and mis-managed that they have to nickel-and-dime the travelers and jack their ticket prices beyond what most would consider reasonable. But the fact remains if you want to travel International, you pretty much have to suck it up and plan accordingly by shopping around, waiting for better deals, making your travel dates a little more flexible, flying out of another city, and so on.
 
It's pretty much set that I'm making a return trip to Medellin at Christmas time when the airline tickets are insanely over-priced. But this is when I have the most vacation time; and it's a great time to be with my novia. So planning ahead and being ready for it in advance tends to soften the blow.

[utopiacowboy]

I went to Medellin once for Christmas and I was able to get a decent fare because I traveled on Christmas Day and New Year's Eve.

[euforia51]

I went to Medellin once for Christmas and I was able to get a decent fare because I traveled on Christmas Day and New Year's Eve.

Exactly my point ... decent fares can be had if you're patient and flexible. Still, if you're traveling around the Christmas holidays be prepared to shell out a few extra bucks.

[Researcher]

Euphoria,  I don’t want you to think I was referencing your post with my original comments.


  I think it is a good idea for some to not bother watching what is going on with the issues and this debt issue.  If a person doesn’t enjoy learning about how the govt. works through issues, then it is best to watch a good movie, or go to the gym, or do what is enjoyable to you.  For me, I’ve grown to love criticizing our govt. and have always enjoyed reading about financial related issues that interest me.  There is a ton of misinformation out there so it isn’t easy to sift through what is what. 


I’ve watched most of the Hitler videos in the past, his rise to power was fascinating.  In our case, I think most people want govt. to grow smaller and I don’t think the populace will stand for govt. growing too much more.  I’d like to think our current situation more resembles The Storming of the Bastille, rather than the Rise of Hitler! 


Fathertime!

    Hey FT, I think it's good to keep up with what is going on.If you are adult enough to handle it and not worry about Hitler returning it can be interesing to learn how our political system works or doesn't work then you can do something about it by voting.I keep up with the dollar's value because I like to know how it is going to affect me when I travel.Nothing wrong with that and there is nothing wrong with having an informed opinion.Maybe if more voters kept up with what is going on we wouldn't have such an ineffective govt.


       Researcher

[fathertime]

    Hey FT, I think it's good to keep up with what is going on.If you are adult enough to handle it and not worry about Hitler returning it can be interesing to learn how our political system works or doesn't work then you can do something about it by voting.I keep up with the dollar's value because I like to know how it is going to affect me when I travel.Nothing wrong with that and there is nothing wrong with having an informed opinion.Maybe if more voters kept up with what is going on we wouldn't have such an ineffective govt.


       Researcher

I agree Rese, I don't see Hitler returning, hell I don't even see a revolution coming, although I think we need one!  Most of the public won't be too interested until they are affected in a big way.  It is possible that could happen soon though.


Fathertime! 

[euforia51]

Researcher if you're going to reference my posts and then passive-aggressively spin them like you're Good Morning America, I'd appreciate it if you could at least be adult enough to think through the context of my thoughts before lobbing "smart bombs." Thanks.
 
Nobody said anything about Hitler returning. Nobody said anything about how knowing how the government works is boring and useless. Nobody said the value of the dollar isn't important. And nobody said anything is wrong with having an informed opinion.

[beginthebeguin]

Brazilophile said

Are any others getting their travel plans squeezed by the circus going on in Washington, DC?

Yep, I may never be able to emulate Andy Lee after all.
Has anyone ever considered that if the US economy really 'tanks', so goes the majority of the countries in the Carribean Basin?
Instead of flying to SA we could always book passage on converted banana boats.

[fathertime]

 
Nobody said anything about Hitler returning. Nobody said anything about how knowing how the government works is boring and useless. Nobody said the value of the dollar isn't important. And nobody said anything is wrong with having an informed opinion.

Hey euphoria!


I don't really think Researcher was referring to you or your posts.  His style is to name you by name if he is referring to a person, besides you didn't say anything that was objectable.   


It was curious though that you brought up Hitler.  In the context of your post, it appeared you were comparing the current situation the American population is experiencing to that of Germany right before Hitler rose to power.   Others have made that sort of comparison also.  As I mentioned earlier, I don't see it here in the USA, if anything we are way over accommodating to populations that are not here legally.   I would say Germany in 2011 is closer to having hyper nationalism then we are!


Fathertime! 

[Researcher]

Researcher if you're going to reference my posts and then passive-aggressively spin them like you're Good Morning America, I'd appreciate it if you could at least be adult enough to think through the context of my thoughts before lobbing "smart bombs." Thanks.
 
Nobody said anything about Hitler returning. Nobody said anything about how knowing how the government works is boring and useless. Nobody said the value of the dollar isn't important. And nobody said anything is wrong with having an informed opinion.

     Euphoria, I was actually disagreeing somewhat with FT's position that some people shouldn't pay any attention to what is going on in the world if they can't handle it.I think the more informed voters there are the better off we are. But I'm beginning to think that FT is right.Some people are probably better off not keeping up with what is going on outside of their own existence.

   Researcher

[Researcher]

I checked the exchange rates for Brazil and Colombia this morning.  I was hoping to make a trip in September.

The exchange rate for the real is 1.55 reais/dollar.  That is the lowest I have seen in over 10 years!   I has been falling for the past 5 years but it was still as high as 2.50 just 2 years or so ago.  The real has taken off in the past year.  I am now not sure I can afford to make a trip this year as there is appreciable inflation in Brazil making the hotel, food, and taxis somewhat expensive.

I took a look at the exchange rate for Colombia for comparison.  It is at 1,770 pesos/dollar.  That is also the lowest I have ever seen it.  I have usually seen it in the 2,200 - 2,400 range and as high as 2,700.  For the guys in Colombia right now, what are the prices of regular stuff there like?  How much is a Big Mac after converting into dollars?

I am worried that our loser politicians won't get their act together today and tomorrow and leave us hanging in the wind.  The rest of the world will start dumping dollars and our dollar will become "as valuable as a peso", in the words of an analyst on CNN.

Are any others getting their travel plans squeezed by the circus going on in Washington, DC?

    Brazilophile, I wouldn't worry too much about your travel plans.I traveled during the financial meltdown and didn't notice a huge price difference.The currency drop has been gradual and id probably due to our govt printing so much of it lately.

     Researcher

[Brazilophile]

    Brazilophile, I wouldn't worry too much about your travel plans.I traveled during the financial meltdown and didn't notice a huge price difference.The currency drop has been gradual and id probably due to our govt printing so much of it lately.

     Researcher

So did I.  I took a trip to Brazil in height of the job losses in 2009 and my last trip was in June of 2010.  What I saw then was that Brazil was taking off.  China was buying up its steel, many countries were buying its mid-range commercial jets, unemployment was down, the government was providing more education and better health care, and the banks were extending more credit to people because they were working in steady jobs. 

What I have heard so far in 2011 is that some bubbles are forming.  Real estate/housing prices are going up.  Food prices have risen.  The central bank is terrified of inflation so it has been raising interest rates.  (That is part of the reason for the decline in the dollar's value against the real.)  But now a sizeable number of people have mismanaged their credit cards and are DEEP in debt and sinking deeper because of the high interest rates.  (Sound familiar?)

I DID notice markedly higher prices for food, restaurants,  taxis, and hotels in 2010 compared to 2006 and 2007.  That is going to be multiplied by the decline in the dollar's value.  I am investigating less expensive hotels, or maybe short-term apartment rentals, as a way of limiting the trip's cost.  I am not able to be very flexible on the flight dates so I will have to pay high fares. 

[Researcher]

    I see your point Brazilophile.Brazil is different in that it's economy is actually improving.It's currency is probably gaining due to that and due to the weakness in the dollar.Have you considered buying some of it's currency for a hedge?

    Researcher

[utopiacowboy]

Any American can get a CD in Brazilian reals at www.everbank.com - with which I am not affiliated in any way.

[euforia51]

It was curious though that you brought up Hitler.  In the context of your post, it appeared you were comparing the current situation the American population is experiencing to that of Germany right before Hitler rose to power.   Others have made that sort of comparison also.  As I mentioned earlier, I don't see it here in the USA, if anything we are way over accommodating to populations that are not here legally.   I would say Germany in 2011 is closer to having hyper nationalism then we are!

Roger that, FT and thanks for the clarification. Actually, I was making a flat out comparison in the sense that a population that was/is in a bit of trouble is looking for the government to hope, change, and any of the myriad of slogans and baloney promises that come along when a political candidate is trying to win votes. Point being that if you're not careful and/or you just want to buy into the negativity that the media feeds us daily, you could end up getting what you wish for and then some. This is why I suggested to turn off the TV, live your life, and quit worrying about the freakin' Dow dropping 50 points in a day.
 
With that said, I am one of those who has no interest in how our government works as presented by CNN, Fox News, and the other agencies that want to fill our heads with smack. I'd much rather watch a good documentary on what really happened. And I definitely appreciate that there are people like you out there who do go beyond having a general interest in this stuff and want to make an effort to dig a little deeper.
 
Back to Hitler, do I see someone like him making a run for office? Maybe not with his abruptness. But perhaps through more gradual and subtle methods. Think more along the lines of a Casey Anthony scenario that has the population glued to their TVs and websites ... only to find that in the bitter end, she was innocent because the freakin' investigators couldn't produce enough evidence to make a conviction. Anyone remember OJ? Meanwhile, a precedent has been set. I remember when that verdict came out ... I laughed at one of the user comments at the end of the article that read "Breaking news -- Florida legalizes murder!" While it was witty and funny, in another sense it was sad. Damn near everyone in the country was certain this girl was guilty and she goes free. And not only that will most likely become a millionaire with some kind of book /movie / nudie magazine deal. How's that for justice?
 
Meanwhile, a more and more frustrated population throws its proverbial hands up and says "screw it ... what difference does it make, what good will it do, where is the justice, we lost our jobs, we can't pay our mortgage ... and on and on. Oh wise one help us!" Couple a few more of these scenarios with a few more debt drama debacles from our congress and you now have population who is ripe for the picking to be led to the edge of a cliff and pushed over by some up and coming super hero with a silver tongue.
 
Granted I'm well aware that this might not be that entirely simple (and also aware that I'm writing way too much). But in case you were interested, I wanted to further explain myself. And why I thought the rise of Hitler made at least a decent comparison, if not a good one.

[utopiacowboy]

Roger that, FT and thanks for the clarification. Actually, I was making a flat out comparison in the sense that a population that was/is in a bit of trouble is looking for the government to hope, change, and any of the myriad of slogans and baloney promises that come along when a political candidate is trying to win votes. Point being that if you're not careful and/or you just want to buy into the negativity that the media feeds us daily, you could end up getting what you wish for and then some. This is why I suggested to turn off the TV, live your life, and quit worrying about the freakin' Dow dropping 50 points in a day.
 
With that said, I am one of those who has no interest in how our government works as presented by CNN, Fox News, and the other agencies that want to fill our heads with smack. I'd much rather watch a good documentary on what really happened. And I definitely appreciate that there are people like you out there who do go beyond having a general interest in this stuff and want to make an effort to dig a little deeper.
 
Back to Hitler, do I see someone like him making a run for office? Maybe not with his abruptness. But perhaps through more gradual and subtle methods. Think more along the lines of a Casey Anthony scenario that has the population glued to their TVs and websites ... only to find that in the bitter end, she was innocent because the freakin' investigators couldn't produce enough evidence to make a conviction. Anyone remember OJ? Meanwhile, a precedent has been set. I remember when that verdict came out ... I laughed at one of the user comments at the end of the article that read "Breaking news -- Florida legalizes murder!" While it was witty and funny, in another sense it was sad. Damn near everyone in the country was certain this girl was guilty and she goes free. And not only that will most likely become a millionaire with some kind of book /movie / nudie magazine deal. How's that for justice?
 
Meanwhile, a more and more frustrated population throws its proverbial hands up and says "screw it ... what difference does it make, what good will it do, where is the justice, we lost our jobs, we can't pay our mortgage ... and on and on. Oh wise one help us!" Couple a few more of these scenarios with a few more debt drama debacles from our congress and you now have population who is ripe for the picking to be led to the edge of a cliff and pushed over by some up and coming super hero with a silver tongue.
 
Granted I'm well aware that this might not be that entirely simple (and also aware that I'm writing way too much). But in case you were interested, I wanted to further explain myself. And why I thought the rise of Hitler made at least a decent comparison, if not a good one.

You may be right. I, along with many if not most Americans, would welcome a military coup.

[Researcher]

     Hey Euforia I think what you are proposing is very possible.Look at how Ronald Reagan was swept into office after the bad times of the 70's.These days we just seem too divided.Issues like raising the debt ceiling and illegal immigration have us so divided that I don't see anyone coming together to decide on who would make a good dictator.

     I don't watch any particular network.I watch all of them.I found that by doing this I can see each one's spin on things and have learned to seperate fact from BS.There are some decent documentaries out there that don't take a political slant.I like watching those.Too bad the news has gotten to where it has a political party affiliation.It makes getting to the facts more difficult.

      Researcher

[euforia51]

Of course, this idea isn't new. There are many different versions of it to be read and discussed all the way down to the content that is in the oldest living book that is read and followed today ... the bible. I'm not a religious person so you need not worry that I am going to go "there". And of course there are many versions that have actually played themselves out ... the events at Jonestown, for example, to name just one.
 
If we the people should be afraid of anything, I believe it is the power of negative influence in mass brought to you by our media ... the Casey Anthonys, the OJ Simpsons, the Bernie Madoffs, the Great Debt Debacle, and the like. Stay informed but don't become absorbed. Turn off the TV, go live your life, and quit buying crap you can't afford. This is how I believe we can collectively make a difference and take back our country.

[Researcher]

    I agree with you Euforia.I hardly watched any of the OJ trial and am proud to say I watched none of the Casey Anthony circus.But it does pay to stay informed.When the stock market tanked my 401k lost alot.I kept up with what was going on but I noticed that when Obama made a speech after he was elected the stock market dropped even more.By moving in and out of the market using this info I made alot of my losses back. Just recently it was in the news that used car prices were up because everyone was hanging on to them longer.The 2 year old gas saver I had was worth a few more grand than I owed on it so I traded it in.I now have a brand new car with a lower payment and I owe as much as I did on the one I traded in.That is due to the fact I took advantage of the Cash for Clunkers program on the vehicle I traded in on the 2 year old car.

       So getting too absorbed in the news can be a negative but being informed can pay off.Buying gadgets is OK if you can actually use them.Alot of folks seem to have the latest stuff just to show off.I always stay behind in this sort of thing because it is cheaper to do so.Smart phones, computers, etc....it pays to stay behind on those things.

    Researcher