Riots in the streets 2008-2013 style.

[thekfc]

Fewer Youths to Be Deported in New Polic.


Roy H. Beck, the president of Numbers USA "This is a jobs issue........The president is taking sides, putting illegal aliens ahead of unemployed Americans.

The action would also bolster President Obama’s reputation with Latino voters as he heads into the 2012 election. Just a week ago the leaders of major Hispanic organizations criticized his record, saying in a report that Mr. Obama and Congress had “overpromised and underdelivered” on immigration and other issues of concern to Latino voters, a major force in some swing states.


http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/19/us/19immig.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=%20backdoor%20amnesty&st=cse

[Alabamaboy!]

This is the way Putin and most of Russia see us. And China, Arab countries, and almost everyone at this time. I must agree with them. I think the anti-US sentiment will continue to grow as the rest of the world suffers because of us living beyond our means as a country. The only reason that we are not hearing more about this, is because Europe is almost as bad or worse than we are in some cases and must accept some of the blame.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-18/putin-slams-u-s-parasite-after-1-600-jump-in-russia-holdings.html

[Researcher]

This is the way Putin and most of Russia see us. And China, Arab countries, and almost everyone at this time. I must agree with them. I think the anti-US sentiment will continue to grow as the rest of the world suffers because of us living beyond our means as a country. The only reason that we are not hearing more about this, is because Europe is almost as bad or worse than we are in some cases and must accept some of the blame.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-18/putin-slams-u-s-parasite-after-1-600-jump-in-russia-holdings.html

     I think it's great that the US is dragging the rest of the world down. China wouldn't be what it is without the US consumer. Any of these other countries are welcomed to step up and be the world police if they want or try and bolster their currency to replace the dollar.

       Researcher

[Alabamaboy!]

It is sad that our claim to fame is that we are the most gluttonous people on the face of the earth. The only reason people deal with us is that we are buying all the junk they are producing. They are not marveling at our culture, our expertise at engineering, our knack at building business, or our skill in economic endeavors. They only care about us because we have always had cash.

As the cash disappears, you will see how they really care about us. You can check out pretty much every newspaper or TV channel with international coverage and see how  the sentiments against us changing.

The only other relevance we have is that we have a lot of guns. And we need them because we have been very good at making enemies.

Places like Brazil spend a tiny fraction on defense because it is not necessary.

Even with the guns we have a hard time getting people to go along with our baloney these days.

[euforia51]

We in the business call them '47's, as in '37's built in Renton, '47's, '67's, '87's in Everett.  Except the 777 which we say "triple 7's".  Now you can talk the talk.      I think I read somewhere that the Everett FAD building (Final Assembly and Delivery) is the largest enclosed volume in the world.  But the size is deceptive from the inside, appearing smaller because it is divided up into assembly lines.  But then those assembly lines are huge, really hitting home when you see several '47's lined up in Final for power-on tests ready to go out the door to Paint and across the road to Flight Line.  It reminds you that Americans are still capable of doing things BIG. 

Actually, I have been in both the Renton and Everett facilities; and I do remember the tour guide manufacturing engineer using the terms 73s, 74s, 75s (when they were building those) and so on. This was about 7-8 years ago however; so I'm sure things have changed. I'm not in the business like you are so I cannot confirm or deny the lingo used today. Is the 87 not the same Dreamliner that will be built in Charleston?

And yes, you did read somewhere that the largest building in the world, by volume, is the factory in Everett, WA. On a side note, I thought the number 2 on that list provided some valuable insight as to why things might be the way they are today...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_buildings_in_the_world

[fathertime]

     I think it's great that the US is dragging the rest of the world down. China wouldn't be what it is without the US consumer. Any of these other countries are welcomed to step up and be the world police if they want or try and bolster their currency to replace the dollar.

       Researcher

Hey Researcher,   


I'm pretty sure we agree that it would be better to be the nation producing the goods rather than the nation consuming them..   China is using their wealth to buy large parcels of barren land in Africa, they will soon harvest crops on that land and become even more self-sufficient.  The money they are making equals power if they spend it properly.  We in the USA are just idiots squandering our money on costly remodels and trinkets that wind up in the trash dump in a few years, the Chinese are planning for long long term wealth. 
I think very soon we will be more dependent on China then they are on us, if it hasn't already happened. 


Fathertime! 

[Alabamaboy!]

Hey Researcher,   


I'm pretty sure we agree that it would be better to be the nation producing the goods rather than the nation consuming them..   China is using their wealth to buy large parcels of barren land in Africa, they will soon harvest crops on that land and become even more self-sufficient.  The money they are making equals power if they spend it properly.  We in the USA are just idiots squandering our money on costly remodels and trinkets that wind up in the trash dump in a few years, the Chinese are planning for long long term wealth. 
I think very soon we will be more dependent on China then they are on us, if it hasn't already happened. 


Fathertime!

China is pro-active. They are doing deals with everyone. And they will all be consumers of their products in the future. But the US??? We cannot even get the trade agreement completed with Colombia. You would think that would be fast tracked since lots of places are going the "anti-US" route (Venezuela, Peru, Bolivia, etc.) and Colombia is strategically located, with a lot of natural resources.

China is not stupid, they can see what the US is doing with devaluing the dollar. And they have been working hard to simply keep us tied up with all this debt servicing to them while at the same time they are building new business relationships all over the world. We are doing it too a little bit, but we are paralyzed with this administration.

Maybe with (another) radical change in administration here we can get it right this time and get our ducks in a row so corporate America will break out with all the billions and billions they are sitting on to get some real business going. Here, abroad, everywhere so we can be a competitor again.

[Colgando]

Hey Researcher,   


I'm pretty sure we agree that it would be better to be the nation producing the goods rather than the nation consuming them..   China is using their wealth to buy large parcels of barren land in Africa, they will soon harvest crops on that land and become even more self-sufficient.  The money they are making equals power if they spend it properly.  We in the USA are just idiots squandering our money on costly remodels and trinkets that wind up in the trash dump in a few years, the Chinese are planning for long long term wealth. 
I think very soon we will be more dependent on China then they are on us, if it hasn't already happened. 


Fathertime!

Yep

[euforia51]

China is pro-active. They are doing deals with everyone. And they will all be consumers of their products in the future. But the US??? We cannot even get the trade agreement completed with Colombia. You would think that would be fast tracked since lots of places are going the "anti-US" route (Venezuela, Peru, Bolivia, etc.) and Colombia is strategically located, with a lot of natural resources.

China is not stupid, they can see what the US is doing with devaluing the dollar. And they have been working hard to simply keep us tied up with all this debt servicing to them while at the same time they are building new business relationships all over the world. We are doing it too a little bit, but we are paralyzed with this administration.

Maybe with (another) radical change in administration here we can get it right this time and get our ducks in a row so corporate America will break out with all the billions and billions they are sitting on to get some real business going. Here, abroad, everywhere so we can be a competitor again.

Points in bold. This situation did not just happen 3 years ago with the Obaminator. It began decades before when the Japanese took advantage of our consumerism with their better cars and electronics back in the 70s. Meanwhile, our automakers (for example) were producing fine products like Pintos, Gremlins, and Pacers.    And the age of being lazy and entitled was well underway and still continues as we drown ourselves in the river of Denial.

The radical change which you speak of, I believe, begins with the individual; and has the potential to collectively make a huge difference in our politics. And that is to shed the consumer tendencies that are keeping you broke. This does two things: it empowers you to take control of your life because you will actually have the chance to get out of debt and have some money without being a slave to someone or something. And it will simultaneously derail the growth of countries like China who do depend on our stupidity to buy everything we can get our greedy hands on. It really is that simple.

[fathertime]

I was just reading about some azzhole democratic senator that is going to try to prop up the housing market again by giving buyers of foreclosed properties 20k in federal funds.   His hopes are that once all the foreclosures are bought that more new construction will commence.  Now I would be willing to bet dollars to donuts some big doner’s wallet has something to with the introduction of this bill, which will not help our economy out at all in the long run.  They are going to try to place tax incentives (and pressure) to corporate america to bring some offshore money back here to the states and they will only tax it 10%…I think corporate America should do what they want with their money and business and not be pressured to bring the money back to help our pitiful govt. 


When the Christ are these jackasses going to let housing deflate so people don’t have to be slaves to a oversized mortgage payment?    I think the answer is NEVER!   Our corrupt govt. (and master) wants us to be slaves to debt.   If a bank can only get 50% value on a foreclosed house, I think that is great, that is probably where home prices should be anyway. 


People that really want to help our economy should be encouraging/ incentivizing LESS consumption, less debt, and housing must be allowed to fall to normal levels considering we ARE in a genuine great depression. 


http://www.housingwire.com/tag/rep-gary-ackerman
Fathertime!

[Colgando]

considering we ARE in a genuine great depression. 


http://www.housingwire.com/tag/rep-gary-ackerman
Fathertime!

You were starting to make a believer out of me, then you lost me with the great depression assertion! 

[fathertime]

You were starting to make a believer out of me, then you lost me with the great depression assertion! 

Hehe!  Well I'm glad you were believing my BS up until that point.  Now I still don't understand what makes you think that our country is in anything less than a Great Depression.  I think you must realize we are still on the downslope here, things are progressively getting worse and worse for the country as a whole in just about every regard.   As I've said before, the only reason we don't have bread lines is because we have near 50 million using food stamps on borrowed money from China.


Fathertime! 

[Colgando]

Hehe!  Well I'm glad you were believing my BS up until that point.  Now I still don't understand what makes you think that our country is in anything less than a Great Depression.  I think you must realize we are still on the downslope here, things are progressively getting worse and worse for the country as a whole in just about every regard.   As I've said before, the only reason we don't have bread lines is because we have near 50 million using food stamps on borrowed money from China.


Fathertime!

I hang my hat on corporate wealth....there is plenty of free cash flow and wealth in the US, it's just stuck at the top of the house right now, per capita income and wealth are still best in class on a national basis. If that wealth were to trickle down, the story would be much better.


Yes, it is a tale of 2 stories, the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. I do think the US is in decline, it is a painful adjustment and realignment to bring us into balance with the global economy.


I think what you refer to as a great depression is probably normal times for much of the developed world. It is just a shock for the US because we had grown accustomed to low unemployment and high citizen confidence.

[fathertime]

I hang my hat on corporate wealth....there is plenty of free cash flow and wealth in the US, it's just stuck at the top of the house right now, per capita income and wealth are still best in class on a national basis. If that wealth were to trickle down, the story would be much better.


Yes, it is a tale of 2 stories, the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. I do think the US is in decline, it is a painful adjustment and realignment to bring us into balance with the global economy.


I think what you refer to as a great depression is probably normal times for much of the developed world. It is just a shock for the US because we had grown accustomed to low unemployment and high citizen confidence.

 Hey Colgado!


This corporate wealth you speak of is less than 2 trillion total.  We now owe close to 15 trillion if not actually quite a bit more, and it continue to rise rapidly as I type.  How on earth do we not eventually get crushed by interest payments.  Right now the interest rates are incredibly low.   


  We have to debase our currency pretty massively to pay people off. 


Now from reading your post it appears you are saying that we are not in a depression because although we have sunk quite a bit this new low is going to be normal so if you graph it there will be no depression it will just be a consistent low.  That may be the case, but I think that low is going quite a bit lower before we are done and if there ever were a recovery this would be a large depression on the graph. 


I was just reading back slapper Joe Biden, just told China not to worry we won’t default, we are still the biggest economy in the world!  Keep loaning to us, and we will send you our beautiful women as repayment!




Fathertime!

[euforia51]

When the Christ are these jackasses going to let housing deflate so people don’t have to be slaves to a oversized mortgage payment?    I think the answer is NEVER!   Our corrupt govt. (and master) wants us to be slaves to debt.   If a bank can only get 50% value on a foreclosed house, I think that is great, that is probably where home prices should be anyway.

I can only speak for my area of the world as opposed to housing markets in other parts of the country. But here, if you are a slave to your oversized mortgage, it's your own fault. No one forced you to buy too much house. There are/were plenty of houses to suit most lifestyles and budgets. But then ... to go and use it as an ATM machine for buy too much car, too much vacation, too much lifestyle. The sins of marketing and incentive and greed were all enticing and hard to resist. But no one put a gun to anyone's head.
 
While it's still true that the rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer, it seems now is a pivotal time for what's left of the middle class. They can either get out of debt and get back on the road to prosperity with a few different rules or they can continue to lean on the politicians and their empty promises of jobs; and as a result continue waiting on the foreclosures, loan modifications, and repo men to change their lives for them.
 
One must also remember that some of these politicians are out of options and grasping at straws because many of them most likely have never seen or dealt with anything like this before. Couple this with the ploys and promises of being re-elected and one man's plan for what seems a no-brainer is another's sure fire end of the world.
 

People that really want to help our economy should be encouraging/ incentivizing LESS consumption, less debt, and housing must be allowed to fall to normal levels considering we ARE in a genuine great depression.

Oddly enough, those people are out there if you're willing to seek them out and listen to them. They've written books, they're on cable TV, they're on talk radio, the Internet, and Podcasts. And one of them, I promise, you know personally. You most likely see him everytime you step out of the shower and look in the mirror.
 
The very best thing to do is rid yourself of the hope for government promises, programs, incentives, and buyouts and empower yourself to take charge and responsibility for your own life. In other words, go and be an American.

[fathertime]

I can only speak for my area of the world as opposed to housing markets in other parts of the country. But here, if you are a slave to your oversized mortgage, it's your own fault. No one forced you to buy too much house. There are/were plenty of houses to suit most lifestyles and budgets. But then ... to go and use it as an ATM machine for buy too much car, too much vacation, too much lifestyle. The sins of marketing and incentive and greed were all enticing and hard to resist. But no one put a gun to anyone's head.
 
While it's still true that the rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer, it seems now is a pivotal time for what's left of the middle class. They can either get out of debt and get back on the road to prosperity with a few different rules or they can continue to lean on the politicians and their empty promises of jobs; and as a result continue waiting on the foreclosures, loan modifications, and repo men to change their lives for them.
 Oddly enough, those people are out there if you're willing to seek them out and listen to them. They've written books, they're on cable TV, they're on talk radio, the Internet, and Podcasts. And one of them, I promise, you know personally. You most likely see him every morning when you step out of the shower and look in the mirror.

Hey euf! You might have missed my point entirely here, I’m not defending those that are slaves to their debt. 


Let’s say  Thaddeus  wants to buy a home right soon.  Thaddeus has a stable job making middle class money.  He knows the prices are still too high for his income. He is not waiting for the govt. to help him out with a ‘program’, he wants the govt, to get the hell out of the way so the price will fall to whatever the  natural level is for the median income in the area.  That way he doesn’t have to overpay and become a slave for the house/neighborhood that he would like to have a wife and kids in.  Life would be so much better for  many if they didn't have to pay the majority of their income for a home, when it doesn't have to be that way. 
If people had less overhead they could comfortably earn less at their jobs and our damn American factories wouldn't have to be built in Mexico where the labor costs are so much cheaper!   


I agree with you on the ones already stuck in their homes that they could not afford.  I think they should be allowed to sink, but our busybody govt. isn’t letting that happen.  Instead they are taking the taxpayer money of those intelligent enough not to put themselves in that position and giving it to the people who made a poor decision and bought more than they can afford, or lost their job.  The govt. interference is screwing the people who are waiting to buy a house at a bargain.  I think the govt wants to keep home prices up so property taxes are higher and they can keep bending the homeowner over and keep the tax money flowing into the govt. coffers. 






On your final point, I don't see/hear many people talking about our overindulging consumerist society.  I can tell by what you say that you are onboard with this program, but not that many others are.


Fathertime!

[Colgando]

Hey Colgado!


This corporate wealth you speak of is less than 2 trillion total.  We now owe close to 15 trillion if not actually quite a bit more, and it continue to rise rapidly as I type.  How on earth do we not eventually get crushed by interest payments.  Right now the interest rates are incredibly low.   


  We have to debase our currency pretty massively to pay people off. 


Now from reading your post it appears you are saying that we are not in a depression because although we have sunk quite a bit this new low is going to be normal so if you graph it there will be no depression it will just be a consistent low.  That may be the case, but I think that low is going quite a bit lower before we are done and if there ever were a recovery this would be a large depression on the graph. 


I was just reading back slapper Joe Biden, just told China not to worry we won’t default, we are still the biggest economy in the world!  Keep loaning to us, and we will send you our beautiful women as repayment!




Fathertime!

Hey man, well, the national debt and deficit issue is a major one that is heading for a train wreck. At this point, it has not crashed and has not caused a great depression. I grant you that Chief Financial Officers and investors across the country look at the national debt and deficit and probably think to themselves that the Feds will have to raid private coffers eventually to pay off the debt, the middle class and what is left of it will not be able to pay it off. At this point the debt and deficit are destroying confidence in the business class, has not caused a depression though.


Well, there is more to corporate profits than just the $2 trillion cash, there are growth rates, diversity of revenue, exceeding expectations etc. Like I mentioned, per capita income and wealth in the US are best in class, problem is, the wealth is stuck at the top of the house. In the aggregate, the US is super wealthy, China is catching up fast. Obama advocates wealth redistribution, the Repubs advocate supply side, trickle down economics to solve for this issue.


Well FT, I give people financial advice for a living, so I have to operate in the realm of fundamental finance and economics with the fact set that is available today. In the realm of fundamental finance and economics, we are not in a Great Depression, in fact, we have experienced an anemic recovery. If the business and investor class believed we were in a great depression and had not experienced a recovery, everyone would have already gone to 100% cash or gold, the economy would be 10 times or more worse than it is now. We have not seen that, the behavior with the capitalists at this point suggests that the global economy recovered, led by the US and China, and now may slip back into recession. Sure, you will have economists who suggest we never recovered, but they are in the minority, are usually talking heads and do not run money, and they do as you tend to do and take an unorthodox view of economic metrics that have been tracked for the past 100 years with a certain methodology.

[fathertime]

Hey man, well, the national debt and deficit issue is a major one that is heading for a train wreck. At this point, it has not crashed and has not caused a great depression. I grant you that Chief Financial Officers and investors across the country look at the national debt and deficit and probably think to themselves that the Feds will have to raid private coffers eventually to pay off the debt, the middle class and what is left of it will not be able to pay it off. At this point the debt and deficit are destroying confidence in the business class, has not caused a depression though.


Well, there is more to corporate profits than just the $2 trillion cash, there are growth rates, diversity of revenue, exceeding expectations etc. Like I mentioned, per capita income and wealth in the US are best in class, problem is, the wealth is stuck at the top of the house. In the aggregate, the US is super wealthy, China is catching up fast. Obama advocates wealth redistribution, the Repubs advocate supply side, trickle down economics to solve for this issue.


Well FT, I give people financial advice for a living, so I have to operate in the realm of fundamental finance and economics with the fact set that is available today. In the realm of fundamental finance and economics, we are not in a Great Depression, in fact, we have experienced an anemic recovery. If the business and investor class believed we were in a great depression and had not experienced a recovery, everyone would have already gone to 100% cash or gold, the economy would be 10 times or more worse than it is now. We have not seen that, the behavior with the capitalists at this point suggests that the global economy recovered, led by the US and China, and now may slip back into recession. Sure, you will have economists who suggest we never recovered, but they are in the minority, are usually talking heads and do not run money, and they do as you tend to do and take an unorthodox view of economic metrics that have been tracked for the past 100 years with a certain methodology.

While I appreciate your post Colgado, I Don’t see anything you written that makes a case against a great depression. 


1. You have mentioned that the USA has great wealth and that it is all concentrated at the top.  OK, well how is that helpful?
2. You say we have already had an anemic recovery.   A recovery based on what?  The govt. has injected trillions of dollars of stimulus (printed money).  If we can call that a recovery, why don’t we print another 15 trillion, then we will be truly a booming economy again and we can all be millionaires!?  The position I continue to hold is there is NO recovery at all, things are actually worse than ever now for the country as a whole. In fact I think we have screwed ourselves for decades by burdening ourselves with this unpayable debt.
3. You talked about taking an unorthodox view of metrics that have been tracked for 100 years with a certain methodology.  Please explain what metrics you are talking about here.  I think you are completely wrong on this one and if you provide me specific examples I intend on proving it to you.




Thanks buddy, I hope you respond so I can nudge you further to the darkside with the rest of us! 


Fathertime!

[Researcher]

      The government has been practicing voodoo economics propping everything up so I don't see how anyone sees a recovery.Sure the numbers may show a weak recovery but the numbers are based on propping up by the government.I remember when everyone was saying that "the fundamentals" were good then we had the big meltdown.Every financial wiz on every financial channel was saying everything was ok before the bottom fell out. Politicians were saying the same then "whammy!". So I don't believe we have had any real sustainable recovery and I don't see one anytime soon.

       Researcher

[euforia51]

Hey euf! You might have missed my point entirely here, I’m not defending those that are slaves to their debt. 


Let’s say  Thaddeus  wants to buy a home right soon.  Thaddeus has a stable job making middle class money.  He knows the prices are still too high for his income. He is not waiting for the govt. to help him out with a ‘program’, he wants the govt, to get the hell out of the way so the price will fall to whatever the  natural level is for the median income in the area.  That way he doesn’t have to overpay and become a slave for the house/neighborhood that he would like to have a wife and kids in.  Life would be so much better for  many if they didn't have to pay the majority of their income for a home, when it doesn't have to be that way.
If people had less overhead they could comfortably earn less at their jobs and our damn American factories wouldn't have to be built in Mexico where the labor costs are so much cheaper!   
...

On your final point, I don't see/hear many people talking about our overindulging consumerist society.  I can tell by what you say that you are onboard with this program, but not that many others are.

Hey FT ... I'm not sure I entirely missed your point and was making a rebuttal and tooting the horn based more on generalities. Shame on me.
 
As for your friend Thaddeus in your example to address the point in bold, while he is not waiting on the government to give him a prop of any kind, he also needs to be empowering himself and his family with the attribute of patience. That is to say, he should be playing by a new set of rules where he maybe has to beat the bushes a little harder than before to shake out an affordable house that suits his needs; as opposed to taking the scarcity viewpoint that has forever and a day been proclaiming the message "... you'd better buy it now because it is the last, affordable house in the most desirable neighborhood on planet earth." If you must be a consumer, do it on your terms even if means waiting another month or two, or three, for the perfect deal to come up ... because it will. If there is an upside to the crappy housing market ... it is this ... new homes, old homes, forclosures, short sales, record low interest rates, etc. Real Estate and housing is seriously on sale right now. I'd buy my little neighborhood of 30-or-so houses right now if I could.

While you may not hear many people spouting the anti-consumerism message, if one is to dig deeper than CNN, Fox News, or any of the other credible (cough) news agencies, they can certainly find them. Surely, you've heard of Suze Orman. But if you want to really get down and dirty and extreme with the idea that the only good debt is zero debt ... I would suggest that Dave Ramsey is your man. I recently read one of his older books on personal finance and adopting his philosophies and principals changed my life in less than 3 months.

[fathertime]

Hey FT ... I'm not sure I entirely missed your point and was making a rebuttal and tooting the horn based more on generalities. Shame on me.
 
As for your friend Thaddeus in your example to address the point in bold, while he is not waiting on the government to give him a prop of any kind, he also needs to be empowering himself and his family with the attribute of patience. That is to say, he should be playing by a new set of rules where he maybe has to beat the bushes a little harder than before to shake out an affordable house that suits his needs; as opposed to taking the scarcity viewpoint that has been proclaiming the message "... you'd better buy this house now because it is the last, affordable house in the most desirable neighborhood on planet earth." If you must be a consumer, do it on your terms even if means waiting another month or two, or three, for the perfect deal to come up ... because it will. If there is an upside to the crappy housing market ... it is this ... new homes, old homes, forclosures, short sales, record low interest rates, etc. Real Estate and housing is seriously on sale right now. I'd buy my little neighborhood of 30-or-so houses right now if I could.

While you may not hear many people spouting the anti-consumerism message, if one is to dig deeper than CNN, Fox News, or any of the other credible (cough) news agencies, they can certainly find them. Surely, you've heard of Suze Orman. But if you want to really get down and dirty and extreme with the idea that the only good debt is zero debt ... I would suggest that Dave Ramsey is your man. I recently read one of his older books on personal finance and adopting his philosophies and principals changed my life in less than 3 months.

Hey Eup!  I'm pretty sure we agree on most of this but I guess sometimes I don't understand how you make your point. 


Regarding my fictional person "Thaddeus".  Thaddeus has been waiting for several years and is just agitated that the govt. appears to be working hard AGAINST his interest of buying an affordable home.  He realizes that he is doing the right thing by saving and being patient, but he wonders why the hell the govt is picking a winner (the current homeowner/bank) and making him as the buyer the loser, by continuing to prop up prices at an unreasonable level.  It seems to me and to Thaddeus that the govt. should stay out of the housing market entirely and let market forces dictate prices.  What do you think Eup?


Fathertime! 

[euforia51]

Hey Eup!  I'm pretty sure we agree on most of this but I guess sometimes I don't understand how you make your point.
...
It seems to me and to Thaddeus that the govt. should stay out of the housing market entirely and let market forces dictate prices.  What do you think Eup?

If I could fix one thing about myself, it might be how other people read or interpret me, sometimes. Baby steps, my friend, I've actually made a lot of progress over the last year since meeting Glory (believe it or not, oddly enough).
 
I agree with you that government would be best staying out of and propping up the housing market. But I mentioned before, the government seems to be grasping at straws. Who'd a thunk a great country such as ours would be on the fringes of dire straits? Dare I suggest the politicians are walking the tightrope of keeping their constituents and attempting to solve problems they've never seen before. Even those with the best intentions would have a difficult time with just snapping their fingers and giving us a solution. And it's unfortunate that too many people are still leaning on something (the government) to just give them the answers to their problems. Have we lost our way that much that we can't do this ourselves anymore?
 
I heard a funny snippet this morning from Michele Bachman talking about getting back to $2 gasoline when she's president.  What the heck is she smoking? Did we just find another Spindletop on our own soil somewhere? Are the fuel taxes just going to disappear if she's elected? Is the demand from China and India just going to subside ... even with the obscene rate of our own consumerism? This is the kind of crap I'm talking about with the empty promises and baloney. The reality is more like this:
 
If we don't do something to get our debt and spending under control, gasoline will be back to the good old days of being less than $2 / gallon because nobody will be able to afford to drive anywhere. And there will be enough surplus to literally be swimming in the stuff. What's the old saying that comes to mind for some reason... water, water everywhere ... but not a drop to drink.

[Colgando]

While I appreciate your post Colgado, I Don’t see anything you written that makes a case against a great depression. 


1. You have mentioned that the USA has great wealth and that it is all concentrated at the top.  OK, well how is that helpful?
2. You say we have already had an anemic recovery.   A recovery based on what?  The govt. has injected trillions of dollars of stimulus (printed money).  If we can call that a recovery, why don’t we print another 15 trillion, then we will be truly a booming economy again and we can all be millionaires!?  The position I continue to hold is there is NO recovery at all, things are actually worse than ever now for the country as a whole. In fact I think we have screwed ourselves for decades by burdening ourselves with this unpayable debt.
3. You talked about taking an unorthodox view of metrics that have been tracked for 100 years with a certain methodology.  Please explain what metrics you are talking about here.  I think you are completely wrong on this one and if you provide me specific examples I intend on proving it to you.




Thanks buddy, I hope you respond so I can nudge you further to the darkside with the rest of us! 


Fathertime!

Hey man, jejejejeje, I am listening to you. I read where you take the GDP number and discredit it, and that is fine however, this GDP number is the top line number that we use to measure whether an economy is growing or shrinking. In order for us to be in a great depression, the GDP number needs to be consistently negative on a year over year basis which indicates a shrinking economy. During the great recession, the economy was shrinking at a -5% clip every year, that is not the case now. The GDP number has a certain methodology to it that allows us to make objective conclusions on whether or not the economy is shrinking or growing.


I am not saying things are not bad, just saying we are not at great depression levels, simply looking at the GDP number, jobs are being added, I think 1.8 million or so have been added since the recovery began. Many real estate markets are stabilizing however, there is still more downside in real estate on a national level. Unemployment levels have stabilized in many markets from a free fall during the great recession. Further, the equity markets, the forward looking indicator tell the story of economic recovery being up maybe 70 to 80% since the bottom of the great recession, this forward indicator is now telling us we may slip back into free fall. Look back at the S&P charts from the true great depression and you should find that the equity markets were terrible for many, many years. Also, there were runs on the bank during the great recession, no runs on the bank today, in part due to FDIC insurance today.


For there to be a great depression, a lot of metrics would need to return to a free fall and the economy would need to continue contracting. We would need to see runs on the banks, we would need to see the equity markets devalue companies significantly. We are stagnating at this point in my view and IMO, stagflation is a real threat, where we have rising prices and stagnant economic growth. There is so much easing by the Fed Reserve that inflation will come, in fact, 3 of the FOMC voters dissented on the FOMC's decision to keep rates low into 2013.


Also, the Euro Zone is not helping and adding to the uncertainty, the US Federal Govt is not helping because they cannot get their fiscal house in order. Things are coming to a head and I do think we are at an inflection point, if things go wrong in the Eurozone, if the US Fed Govt does not restructure its fiscal house, if the US Govt cannot implement policies that promote growth in the US, we could very well go into free fall again and this time, it would be bad, maybe even great depression levels.

[fathertime]

Hey Colgado!  I'm going to give you what I have to try to turn you. When I'm through here I'm hoping you will see what I see and realize that what you wrote is complete bullsheet.  I realize it was unintentional and it probably behooves you to be a little more optimistic due to your current job.   

Hey man, jejejejeje, I am listening to you. I read where you take the GDP number and discredit it, and that is fine however, this GDP number is the top line number that we use to measure whether an economy is growing or shrinking. In order for us to be in a great depression, the GDP number needs to be consistently negative on a year over year basis which indicates a shrinking economy. During the great recession, the economy was shrinking at a -5% clip every year, that is not the case now. The GDP number has a certain methodology to it that allows us to make objective conclusions on whether or not the economy is shrinking or growing.

1.  During the great depresssion  gdp grew during an average of 8.5% in the years 1934-1937...I assume that you mistyped where you said 'great recession' and meant to say 'great depression' if that is the case doesn't this fly in the face of what you typed?
2.   If all we have to do to avoid a Depression is keep the GDP upwards then all the Govt has  to do is print money and give it to all us little people so we can spend it on pizza, beer, and other thrills, and we will never have a great depression.   As a matter of fact why don’t we try to blow a stampede of hurricanes our way, so we can rebuild all the houses along the gulf coast, that will also help the meaningless GDP number, with all the reconstruction that will occur. 


What is your response to these ideas and how is it that you feel the GDP really means something?




Here are a few other factors to consider when looking at our false GDP:
GDP:
  --Imputations  1.6 trillion….nothing happened no transaction occurred the govt. just assumed economic value was added.  Here is the largest example of an imputation,  “The owner of a house doesn’t have to pay himself rent” The money he saves by not paying himself rent is ADDED to our false GDP number.    WTF is that? 


--Did you know that if you have a checking account and it is free, the Govt assumes you receive value and it adds what it thinks the free Checking acct. should be worth.   If you add up just those two imputations, it is over 1 TRILLION dollars added to our GDP.  WTF is that? 


--How about hedonics in the GDP, it falsely added 2.3 TRILLION to our GDP, maybe more now, that was for 2003.


There is much more but rather then regurgitate this relatively brief video, I'll let you decide for yourself after viewing.  Try to keep your mind open and don't let the cognitive dissidence bother you much as you begin your swing over to the dark side! 


http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-16-fuzzy-numbers




We can examine some of your other examples as well later if need be. 
Fathertime!
 

[Colgando]

Hey Colgado!  I'm going to give you what I have to try to turn you. When I'm through here I'm hoping you will see what I see and realize that what you wrote is complete bullsheet.  I realize it was unintentional and it probably behooves you to be a little more optimistic due to your current job.   


1.  During the great depresssion  gdp grew during an average of 8.5% in the years 1934-1937...I assume that you mistyped where you said 'great recession' and meant to say 'great depression' if that is the case doesn't this fly in the face of what you typed?
2.   If all we have to do to avoid a Depression is keep the GDP upwards then all the Govt has  to do is print money and give it to all us little people so we can spend it on pizza, beer, and other thrills, and we will never have a great depression.   As a matter of fact why don’t we try to blow a stampede of hurricanes our way, so we can rebuild all the houses along the gulf coast, that will also help the meaningless GDP number, with all the reconstruction that will occur. 


What is your response to these ideas and how is it that you feel the GDP really means something?




Here are a few other factors to consider when looking at our false GDP:
GDP:
  --Imputations  1.6 trillion….nothing happened no transaction occurred the govt. just assumed economic value was added.  Here is the largest example of an imputation,  “The owner of a house doesn’t have to pay himself rent” The money he saves by not paying himself rent is ADDED to our false GDP number.    WTF is that? 


--Did you know that if you have a checking account and it is free, the Govt assumes you receive value and it adds what it thinks the free Checking acct. should be worth.   If you add up just those two imputations, it is over 1 TRILLION dollars added to our GDP.  WTF is that? 


--How about hedonics in the GDP, it falsely added 2.3 TRILLION to our GDP, maybe more now, that was for 2003.


There is much more but rather then regurgitate this relatively brief video, I'll let you decide for yourself after viewing.  Try to keep your mind open and don't let the cognitive dissidence bother you much as you begin your swing over to the dark side! 


http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-16-fuzzy-numbers




We can examine some of your other examples as well later if need be. 
Fathertime!

Hey man, I wrote correctly in describing the 2008 recession as the great recession which I think history will call this period.


Yeah, GDP recovered at some point during the period described as the Great Depression, lots of factors when into describing this period and its lenght, it would take a dissertation and a lot of research to break that down.


It is not about being positive, it is about pricing in information to money management methodologies. If I adopted your view, I would have lost my clients a lot of money. If I were to adopt your view right now, I would loose them even more money.