Riots in the streets 2008-2013 style.

[Colgando]

    There is a very small number of middle class in third world countries.The last number I saw in China was 80 million....China has a billion people.80 million is a drop in the bucket.Because of the redefiniton of the middle class I'd say the number is even less.The emerging middle class in poor countries is a myth so that the true disappearing middle class here in the US will buy into the lie that things will get better.Those in power are afraid of an uprising that will sooner or later happen.They are just buying time by telling lies about an emerging middle class in other countries.What some have seen are exceptions and very small numbers.If you compare the mythical middle class to the disappearing middle class here in the US there is no comparison.

      Using the $10 a week for laundry example.Sounds really cheap compared to the $400 cost of a washing machine right?When you take the cost of electricity the average load of clothes costs $2.78 when you use a machine and average it out over the life of the machine. Now, if the machine cleaned your house it would be a no brainer as far as which is cheaper but I don't mind cleaning my own house.For me, it is cheaper to own a washing machine.

    The smoke and mirrors come in when things are compared and made to sound much more expensive here in the US when it really isn't.Many things in other countries are just as expensive and in some case more expensive than here in the US.All this talk about the emerging middle class is one big myth.What is really going on is a redefinition of the middle class term to what is actually the working poor.

         Researcher

Let's assume the 80 million number is right in China for middle class as you define it, what was that number 5 years ago, 10 years ago? Now calculate the growth rate of this number, is it a linear growth rate or an exponential growth rate? Now project that growth rate out over the 5, 10, 20 year periods and see what number you arrive at?


Maybe you do not get what emerging means? It means they are increasing in number, it is a fact and people are rightly alerted to this growth rate because that is where the jobs, economic growth and purchasing power are growing right now. Developed countries are growing at much slower rates with their middle classes being squeezed, the fundamentals are opposite in the emerging world. The emerging middle class in other countries has a lot of room left to grow, but they are heading in the right direction and doing the right things. Taking a, all that growth we are seeing is a myth position, is naive at best, and unfortunately, ignoring these facts will continue to put the US at a competitive disadvantage. We need to figure out how to be competitive again with this changing global economy. At a minimum, there are a lot more people to buy products we make in the good ole USA.

[Researcher]

  Hey Colgando, I get what emerging means, I've been to those places.My point is thatt there is no comparison between what is considered middle class here and middle class there.There has been a redefining of the term middle class to what used to be the working poor.It's a myth that has been perpetuated by semi-facts.It has been claimed that these emerging markets have teachers, nurses, and other job titles that are equated with middle class here.I'm not denying that these places don't have these professions I'm saying there is no comparison to the same jobs here in the US.But by saying the emerging markets have these professions then they must have a middle class.To the untravelled person it makes sense but to me it's not true.Why? because I have been there and seen it up close.It isn't true.

   Just like the lies that were told about free trade agreements.Such as free trade agreements will create jobs here in the US we won't lose jobs.Tell that to the 9.1% unemployed right now.Where are the jobs from these agreements?What is happening is that big companies are being protected along with Wall Street while they are making huge profits.At the same time the US middle class is being turned into the working poor.There is no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow so if everyone is just patient and "let the system work everything will be OK" is a lie.Unless you are very well off get ready for a change in lifestyle that isn't going to be the rose garden that is being described.

        Researcher

[utopiacowboy]

  Hey Colgando, I get what emerging means, I've been to those places.My point is thatt there is no comparison between what is considered middle class here and middle class there.There has been a redefining of the term middle class to what used to be the working poor.It's a myth that has been perpetuated by semi-facts.It has been claimed that these emerging markets have teachers, nurses, and other job titles that are equated with middle class here.I'm not denying that these places don't have these professions I'm saying there is no comparison to the same jobs here in the US.But by saying the emerging markets have these professions then they must have a middle class.To the untravelled person it makes sense but to me it's not true.Why? because I have been there and seen it up close.It isn't true.

   Just like the lies that were told about free trade agreements.Such as free trade agreements will create jobs here in the US we won't lose jobs.Tell that to the 9.1% unemployed right now.Where are the jobs from these agreements?What is happening is that big companies are being protected along with Wall Street while they are making huge profits.At the same time the US middle class is being turned into the working poor.There is no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow so if everyone is just patient and "let the system work everything will be OK" is a lie.Unless you are very well off get ready for a change in lifestyle that isn't going to be the rose garden that is being described.

        Researcher

I guess you define working poor as someone who has an apartment in Medellin, a condo on the coast and regular trips to Vegas and Orlando. If that's working poor, sign me up.

[Researcher]

I guess you define working poor as someone who has an apartment in Medellin, a condo on the coast and regular trips to Vegas and Orlando. If that's working poor, sign me up.

      And everyone in Medellin has a condo on the coast and takes trips to Vegas and Orlando??? I don't think so.That's the exception not the norm.


        Researcher

[utopiacowboy]

      And everyone in Medellin has a condo on the coast and takes trips to Vegas and Orlando??? I don't think so.That's the exception not the norm.


        Researcher

Year in and year out the US State department issues close to 200,000 tourist visas a year in Bogota, a volume topped by only China, India, Mexico, Brazil and Venezuela. Apparently the Colombian "working poor" are doing a good job convincing embassy staff that they have enough resources to visit the US. Since the visas last for 5 years, about 1 million Colombians have a US tourist visa - not bad for people who have nothing!

[Researcher]

    And how many tourist visas are turned down?

   Out of a country of roughly 40 million people that 200,000 is a very small number.

   How many tourist visas does Colombia approve from the US every year? Oh yeah thats right a tourist visa is not needed to travel to Colombia, you only need a US passport! Why? because a US citizen is more than likely going to return to a country with a much higher standard of living. 

      Researcher

[fathertime]

so the economic numbers are 'worse than expected' as usual.  When the fook are the numbers ever not worse than expected?  429,000 new unemployment apps.  Bernanke is surprised that things are going down the toilet,  I don't believe him, I think he suspected this was going to happen. 
I read the other day that the govt is sinking another 1 billion into underwater homeowners...once again taking my money to temporally help the jackasses that bought more than they can afford...that ought to buy them another 6 months before they finally choose to go belly up.



Fathertime!

[utopiacowboy]

    And how many tourist visas are turned down?

   Out of a country of roughly 40 million people that 200,000 is a very small number.

   How many tourist visas does Colombia approve from the US every year? Oh yeah thats right a tourist visa is not needed to travel to Colombia, you only need a US passport! Why? because a US citizen is more than likely going to return to a country with a much higher standard of living. 

      Researcher

Enjoy it while you can. Every day that goes by is one day less for the American Empire. The Romans were probably babbling about how they had so much higher a standard of living than the barbarians to the north right up until the end. In fact I would say that this smug self-assured arrogant attitude is a characteristic of the American sheeple that they will keep until they are fighting for scraps in alleys thrown away by Latin American tourists coming for a cheap vacation.

[Researcher]

Enjoy it while you can. Every day that goes by is one day less for the American Empire. The Romans were probably babbling about how they had so much higher a standard of living than the barbarians to the north right up until the end. In fact I would say that this smug self-assured arrogant attitude is a characteristic of the American sheeple that they will keep until they are fighting for scraps in alleys thrown away by Latin American tourists coming for a cheap vacation.

    Exactly, I agree with you on that.We are losing our standard of living while these "emerging" markets aren't seeing much in the way of increase in standard of living.It's all a lie.While the emerging market folks standard of living will only rise a little the US standard of living will drop alot.

     Anyway, it's good to see you have come around to realize this.

     Researcher

[Researcher]

   Just like UC pointed out the American Sheeple are clueless.They are told that there is a middle class emerging in the developing markets, this is a myth.For example, the myth is realized when people look at salaries in other countries and realize how low they are compared to US salaries.Then another myth is told that since prices are cheaper the emerging middle class has more purchasing power.Well, here are some actula numbers:

  In 2008 the median monthly income was $303 a month in Colombia.

  In 2008 the median monthly income was $3250 a month in the US.

   According to the big lie Colombians have more purchasing power because thins are cheaper.Were they 10 times cheaper?I don't remember seeing anything 1/10 the price when I was there.As a matter of fact many things are the same or more expensive.My brother in laws sent money for me to buy cameras here in the US because they were cheaper here!

   So, the emerging middle class is a myth when compared to the middle class in the US.Here is a good article on it:

http://ca.rss.news.yahoo.com/s/20052011/20/latin-america-s-middle-class-grows-tenuous-grasp-status.html

    Why is the middle class so important for a nation?Because without it countries have instability, which is where we are headed.I'm sure that will include "riots in the streets".

       Researcher   

[Colgando]

  Hey Colgando, I get what emerging means, I've been to those places.My point is thatt there is no comparison between what is considered middle class here and middle class there.There has been a redefining of the term middle class to what used to be the working poor.It's a myth that has been perpetuated by semi-facts.It has been claimed that these emerging markets have teachers, nurses, and other job titles that are equated with middle class here.I'm not denying that these places don't have these professions I'm saying there is no comparison to the same jobs here in the US.But by saying the emerging markets have these professions then they must have a middle class.To the untravelled person it makes sense but to me it's not true.Why? because I have been there and seen it up close.It isn't true.

   Just like the lies that were told about free trade agreements.Such as free trade agreements will create jobs here in the US we won't lose jobs.Tell that to the 9.1% unemployed right now.Where are the jobs from these agreements?What is happening is that big companies are being protected along with Wall Street while they are making huge profits.At the same time the US middle class is being turned into the working poor.There is no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow so if everyone is just patient and "let the system work everything will be OK" is a lie.Unless you are very well off get ready for a change in lifestyle that isn't going to be the rose garden that is being described.

        Researcher

Hey Researcher, I agree 100% with your Free Trade Analysis, net-net, jobs leave the US under these agreements, products flow back, corporations and business owners get richer.


The numbers suggest we are reverting to the mean, the US declines, emerging markets increase, these are where the trends are headed. Your argument suggests a static view of the trends, maybe I am hearing you wrong. Not too long ago, the US had an emerging middle class which has blossomed into what it is today over the past 40 years. Give China, Brazil, India and the rest 40 years and we will see where we are. Sure, we are not at equilibrium now based on a static view of the numbers today, but project all the facts forward and there is a compelling argument for a new economic world order coming upon us over the rest of our lifetimes.


If you argue that where the mean reverts to will be the new definition of middle class, I can agree with that. I do not get caught up on terminology too much, what I see is a rapidly growing emerging economy, a declining US economy, and the supporting numbers, analysis and I see the world heading to a multi-polar state with the US, India, China being the predominant players. I see the emerging markets willing to make pragmatic decisions to promote economic growth, I see emerging economy students being educated in the Western world and taking their talents back to their home countries.

[Colgando]

so the economic numbers are 'worse than expected' as usual.  When the fook are the numbers ever not worse than expected?  429,000 new unemployment apps.  Bernanke is surprised that things are going down the toilet,  I don't believe him, I think he suspected this was going to happen. 
I read the other day that the govt is sinking another 1 billion into underwater homeowners...once again taking my money to temporally help the jackasses that bought more than they can afford...that ought to buy them another 6 months before they finally choose to go belly up.



Fathertime!

Nice observation FT. I would mention that Bernanke operates and makes decisions on current numbers and forecasts are just that, forecasts, and always changing as new numbers come in, they have upgraded forecasts in the past, he is a serious man with a serious job, much of his analysis is based of economic models and the Fed updates these on a daily basis. The Fed is independent of the politicians, not the Bankers, but at least the politicians, so I take his numbers and views over the politicians numbers and views. I will not be surprised if he downgrades his outlook again, the uncertainty in the US economy is terrible, confidence is terrible, anybody with capital is not going to do anything in the US right now. No one knows what the long-term policy of the US will be, the politicians are at an impasse and they have to act in a credible way before the business community starts investing in the US again.

[Researcher]

      That's a good analysis of the situation Colgando.But remember the global economy is a fairly new phenomenon and it is due to a greater degree of world peace.When we had a strong communist presence countries were  closed off from one another and many other countries were unstable so building a plant in another country wasn't a smart thing to do.Now, fast forward to today and we have emerging countries with a growing number of working poor(middle class).Many economists and CEOs have stated when wages get to be what they consider "high" companies will move to a country that has cheaper labor.So the future of these emerging countries isn't that bright.

      I remember when I was working in Mexico during the 90's the Mexican's were worrying about the competition of China and many companies left Mexico for China or decided on China for thier plant rather than Mexico.The people in Mexico were making 50 cents per hour and they were worried about losing thier jobs to cheaper labor!!!!

       What is happening is companies are sucking up money from the US middle class by producing goods else where and selling them here.Companies are making record profits while the US middle class is disappearing.I'm not anti-corporation at all.I'm just telling it as I see it.This stuff is being glossed over by politicians and those in power.We keep getting lied to so we will ignore what is going on.I think if people really realized the facts there would be instability and quite possibly "riots in the streets".

      I fell really bad for younger folks that are paying for a high priced education and are probably not going to be earning enough money to pay back student loans. Instead they will have to settle for alot less and work to survive if they are lucky and never be able to retire.

       Researcher

[fathertime]

   

      I fell really bad for younger folks that are paying for a high priced education and are probably not going to be earning enough money to pay back student loans. Instead they will have to settle for alot less and work to survive if they are lucky and never be able to retire.

       Researcher

Frankly I'm starting to believe that higher education is not worth the cost in many cases.  You hear about poor idiots that get art or photography degrees and they are in debt 120K i have no ideal how the hell they are going to pay that back with interest.  These outrageous student loans can be a form of slavery just like being saddled with a huge mortgage.  I am going to try like hell to focus my kids for college and not encourage them to get a degree if it is just going to be a worthless piece of toilet paper... there are fields that are good that require a specific education and that is what I would like to gear my kids towards.


Fathertime!

[Colgando]

Frankly I'm starting to believe that higher education is not worth the cost in many cases.  You hear about poor idiots that get art or photography degrees and they are in debt 120K i have no ideal how the hell they are going to pay that back with interest.  These outrageous student loans can be a form of slavery just like being saddled with a huge mortgage.  I am going to try like hell to focus my kids for college and not encourage them to get a degree if it is just going to be a worthless piece of toilet paper... there are fields that are good that require a specific education and that is what I would like to gear my kids towards.


Fathertime!

Very keen insights FT and Researcher I think. I recommend Information Technology, Science and Health Care to anyone that asks my opinion, even languages. Our aging population will need health care providers, IT is one of the bright spots with new job adds and science, the US is laking here and science will be a force of the future, we will need people with Mandarin skills, the various Indian languages, etc, Spanish will play well for naturally bi-lingual folks I think, pick up Portuguese, that may be a good play. The popular Business School majors are going to be a tough go I think, all those liberal art degrees are going to be a tough go too IMO, history, art and all those majors. It seems like it will be super competitive for a finance, accounting or marketing job. Maybe international relations coupled with fluent language skills will be a good play. Us middle class americans are in for a tough go at it. We need at least a 160,000 new jobs or so to just keep up with the work-force, back out all the govt jobs, so it is tough. The construction industry may not hire new workers for a long time and I do not see corporations expanding low-skilled production in the US anytime soon, save the politicians passing legislation that forces corporations to build-out operations in the US.

[Researcher]

      I see IT jobs being outsourced to India and China as well.Sure the aging population will need healthcare but will they be able to afford it along with anyone else.When I was a kid people didn't go to the doctor as often as they do now.Some medical occupations didn't even exist so people can do without them.When the manufacturing base started to disappear so did the foundation for every other occupation in the US.I believe that our economy is like an eco system and the rain forest has been demolished.Get ready to live in the desert.

      Researcher

[robert angel]

Just from what little I know, radiologist dr.s reading life critical x rays in the USA, a very high paying "specialty" with huge insurance malpractice worries, are seeing their work, their x rays, read in India. Medical transcription, and especially billing, are also being done overseas to take advantage of the time differences, minimizing labor costs and maximizing quick profit return by electronically doing billing overseas 24 x 7. Higher paid, senior nurses are getting laid off and sick patients w/o insurance are discharged much faster than those with Insurance. When I was in the hospital, several staff members expressed delight that my insurance paid so well. It paid them over a thousand dollars an hour for almost nothing, I was conscious, not bleeding and itching to get out, but they insisted on test after test, keeping me as long as possible.......

[utopiacowboy]

Everything that can be outsourced is being outsourced. We have about 800 Indian contractors doing IT work onsite and employ thousands more offshore. That is all work Americans used to do. I told my son not to bother with getting a computer science degree as there would no work for him here. Instead he is getting a degree in aerospace engineering so he can do defense work. The only work that will be left in the US is menial service work that must be done here (fast food etc), defense work, and work like trucking and auto repair that has to be physically done here. It is no wonder that the US labor force is decreasing in size even as the population grows larger. The US is completely finished as an economic power but most of the idiot population does not realize this. They will keep voting for morons like Obama bin laden. Several million need to march on Washington with the AKs loaded and ready and inflict some change on DC.

[Colgando]

With IT, I am referring more to high-end development work, like researcher and development for Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Consulting Firms etc which are hiring and google actually just gave a 10% pay raise across the board. Day to day IT servicing has already been outsourced as noted but a lot of the high-end development work is still done in the US. The US is still the leader with intellectual capital, so that is a good thing. I was thinking more on the lines of high end Science work, PHDs that can do researcher and development.


With Health Care, I am referring to low paid caretaker types of positions to care for elders. I have many elderly clients and most if not all pay for low-skilled caretakers. Anything that does not require a physical presence is already being outsourced. Either govt health insurance, a person's wealth, or a person's children could pay the $7 an hour or whatever the minimum wage is for this service. It may be difficult for people to ship their parents off to nursing homes going forward so they may opt to keep their parents at home and hire low paid caretakers to help them out as an alternative. The Baby Boom retirement and resulting wealth transfer that just started is going to be massive, there will be opportunity here.


Any kind of career that is aligned closely to the middle-class US citizen not in the retirement phase is going to be tough. I think people will have to look to align themselves with elders and retirees, high-end IT and Science jobs, the rich class or align themselves to the govt somehow. All the typical jobs that service the middle-class are going to have way more applicants than positions, IMO.

[robert angel]

Re:
>> a person's children could pay the $7 an hour or whatever the minimum wage is for this service. It may be difficult for people to ship their parents off to nursing homes going forward so they may opt to keep their parents at home and hire low paid caretakers to help them out as an alternative<<

You guys know I hate writing about politics and economics,  because it typically evolves into a middle school level spitting match here, but here's my 'two bits' any way--which of course due to inflation, turned into at least seventy five cents--so here it tis:

Health care worker wages are pathetic, even the  'minimum wage' in the USA, which by the way, is an astounding $7.25 an hour, not $7--is just one reason why we see third world people coming here to take those jobs. Few Americans will take those jobs, because unless they suppply you housing and food, or you share a trailer with 15 other people, you simply can't survive on what they pay. Yet I see people from overseas with college degrees who come here and work as 'care givers' because our govt realizes there's a real need. Jobs in the area of their college degree? Forget about it--no, or few at best, visas granted. Not that US corporations would mind our govt. expanding visas to foreign high tech workers--they routinely pay them less and they usually have to move back home before they can get very high up the pay scale anyway. Works out well, for the company anyway.
In many places here, even Americans who have gone to school and earned LPN degrees (that's nursing) are only making $10 or $11 an hour--not enough to for a single parent to reasonably raise a child or two.

Illegal immigration is wrong, plain and simple, but wait and see what cracking down on it will do to food prices. Food companies don't need much of an excuse already to raise prices and are not beyond shaming themselves by any means by admitting that losing this form of labor and the increased cost of energy, are reasons to increase the prices of fruit, vegetables and chicken, just for starters.

Don't be so sure that jobs like many of those currently available here with the likes of Google, Microsoft, Facebook, etc can't and won't be outsourced--intellectual property is even more nebulous than a lot of other work and the legal system is way behind the mark in learning how to handle issues there, if the govt. even cared about it.

Going back to the earliest years of our nation's development, although free enterprise, capitalism in it's purest form and laissez faire were all touted as being vital to our nation's development and health, almost all our 'founding fathers', especially Alexander Hamilton, also clearly recognized the importance of ecnomic protectionism on the home front and tarrifs on foreign goods, well, they seemed to feel that such policies represented patriotism.

I'd dare to say that even Adam Smith would say, if he were alive today, that we're eating our own and that perhaps 'charity should start at home'. We seem to forget that in terms of war and other international engagements,  that people like George Washington strongly advised staying out of other nations business and internal affairs and  that 'isolationism' wasn't a bad policy.
Today, we exploit and/or abandon the middle class--the bulk of the American working population, under the false pretense that increasingly free and more open trade and work outsourced abroad, is ultimately best for the nation as a whole and that somehow the money will trickle back down and into the hands and mouths of the hungry masses.

How we --or at least how the richest people and polticians view how capitalism, business and being 'patriotic' should intertwine, has changed drastically.

The hard fact is that the real money for many of the wealthiest Americans is being generated abroad and when the currency abroad is converted back into weak US dollars, with the current exchange rates, there are more dollars to be put into the bank or perhaps more available and likely to be used to fund even more overseas expansion of US corporate interests. They don't give a rat's ass about closing down factories and  losing jobs here by moving them overseas and our govt is more than happy to help them along the way.

And regarding the changing nature of work opportunities available--there aren't even enough jobs available in the sectors mentioned already for a population our size and much of our population isn't or doesn't want to be educated and trained to do such work, even if their were jobs available. As a whole, we're a lazy, apathetic bunch who nonetheless expect entitlement.

In some ways, we really do look like we're recreating the fall of the Roman Empire and at the same time, creating an atmosphere similar to what existed prior to the French revolution all over again.  To put it bluntly, we are royally screwed at this point in our nation's history. Unlike the French however, we'd have a hard time 'storming the Bastille' and freeing prisoners, even if we were so inclined, seeing how our great and prosperous nation has for decades had the largest percentage of it's population incarcerated in comparison to ANY nation on earth:

Prison population per 100,000 inhabitants^[13]

Country	Prison population per 100,000 inhabitants
United States of America	756[19]
Russian Federation	611
New Zealand	186
United Kingdom	148
Netherlands	128
Australia	124.5
Canada	107
Italy	104
South Korea	104
Ireland	101 [20]
Germany	95
Turkey	91
France	85
Sweden	82
Denmark	77
Japan	62
Iceland	40
India	22   And I think it's all going to get worse before it gets better, folks.....

[fathertime]

      I see IT jobs being outsourced to India and China as well.Sure the aging population will need healthcare but will they be able to afford it along with anyone else.When I was a kid people didn't go to the doctor as often as they do now.Some medical occupations didn't even exist so people can do without them.When the manufacturing base started to disappear so did the foundation for every other occupation in the US.I believe that our economy is like an eco system and the rain forest has been demolished.Get ready to live in the desert.

      Researcher

Hey Researcher! 


I like that rainforest/desert comparison....the fact that are trade deficit is so bad is an important fact in my mind and shows we are not making enough to support our currrent bloated lifestyle...


Fathertime!

[fathertime]

 Our aging population will need health care providers,

Hey Colgado!


I'm surprised we haven't started 'exporting' our very old people to places like India/China, where they can live in a nursing home for very little money and probably receive much more attention!
That sounds like a good business opportunity for somebody and I'm sure it is being done somewhere. 


Fathertime!

[Colgando]

Hey Colgado!


I'm surprised we haven't started 'exporting' our very old people to places like India/China, where they can live in a nursing home for very little money and probably receive much more attention!
That sounds like a good business opportunity for somebody and I'm sure it is being done somewhere. 


Fathertime!

Yeah man, that is a tough one, shipping someone's parents overseas, that is cold. I would guess people would opt for as cheap of labor as they can get to take care of the parents in country.

[Colgando]

Hey Robert:


My expectation is that the unemployment and underemployment in the US that is commonly reported will be in the 10% to 20% range on an ongoing basis over the medium to long-term, similar to that of Europe. For those of us who have the ability to look at the playing field and make calculated career decisions and put in the work to achieve the objective will be a part of the majority of people that will have work in the US. Hardly the end of the US, us Americans need to get out more often to see what the rest of the world is like. Most other countries have economic hardship and they survive. I guess I come from a war torn, impoverished nation perspective, so the decline of the American Empire and where we will end up is not all that crazy or out of the norm to me. If we can stay away from a civil war or a coup d'etat in the US, I think we will survive as a nation, albeit in a new reality.

[utopiacowboy]

Hey Robert:


My expectation is that the unemployment and underemployment in the US that is commonly reported will be in the 10% to 20% range on an ongoing basis over the medium to long-term, similar to that of Europe. For those of us who have the ability to look at the playing field and make calculated career decisions and put in the work to achieve the objective will be a part of the majority of people that will have work in the US. Hardly the end of the US, us Americans need to get out more often to see what the rest of the world is like. Most other countries have economic hardship and they survive. I guess I come from a war torn, impoverished nation perspective, so the decline of the American Empire and where we will end up is not all that crazy or out of the norm to me. If we can stay away from a civil war or a coup d'etat in the US, I think we will survive as a nation, albeit in a new reality.

I think the only hope for the US is a military coup or a civil war. Either would suit me fine. I don't think the Yankees have any stomach for a fight nor the Pacific coast hippies. The mountain west, the middle tier and the south are all armed to the teeth with good old boys who know how to use their guns. Most of the military comes from these areas as well and they have no love for Obama and I doubt they would shoot on their own brothers, cousins, fathers, etc. I think most units would turn tail and join the rebels. Personally I would like to see a new Republic of Texas with New Mexico and Oklahoma part of it along with a few northern Mexican states. Texas is the only part of the US that has a functioning economy creating jobs while places like NY and California degenerate into pale versions of a failed Europe.