Riots in the streets 2008-2013 style.

[Researcher]

  Good article FT and right on target.The problem of joblessness didn't come upon us overnight. Voodoo economics has been covering up the fact that the US has been losing jobs year after year due to globalization.The US needs to start to look after itself in the global arena if we are ever going to survive.There needs to be a radical change in thinking by the government AND the citizens.The main focus should be what we need to do to be a part of globalization without being on path to total annihilation(that we are on). Obama economics (socialism) won't work and neither will revamped Reaganomics.It's a different time that calls for a different strategy. We need free market strategies tempered with some....and I dare say..protectionism. We need to follow China's model without the communism.The reason China is a quickly emerging market is because China looks out for it's own interest.While we have been rebuilding Iraq China has been making deals for the oil there and building roads to transport it out.We throw money at Iraq, China has been seizing opportunities there.

      We need to stop this nation building and do away with our imperialistic ways. Occupying foreign lands has been part of the downfall of many past empires.We are no different.Foreign aid should be drastically cut back if not done away with completely.

  Researcher

[piglett]

   Those are good quotes Michealb.Here is a quote from an old friend of mine: It's only money, it'll go away.

    Another saying I remember from my childhood.A friend of my Dad's use to say: There is no need in worrying about anything because it's not going to be alright any way.


      Researcher

well here is a quote straight from me
 
"money is only good for two things, saving & spending"
 
  piglett

[Colgando]

Cool man, IMO, it is less important whether we individual citizens buy the facts or not, or which way we spin the facts, it is what it is, no amount of pontificating by individual citizens is going to change the reality of the situation. What matters is what a person does about their thoughts and perceptions. IMO, it is more important what senior level decision makers think because they will be pulling the trigger on policy decisions, so individual citizens can evaluate what they do and incorporate that into their perspectives.


If a person concludes that the world is heading into a new "Dark Age" as is portrayed by some on this forum and that the US is heading into a Greater Depression, then those folks need to take appropriate action. If a person concludes that World GDP growth will continue to be positive, with the US becoming less and less formidable with each passing day, then those folks need to take appropriate action. Personally, my view is that World GDP growth will continue to be positive propelling the world into a long-term cyclical bull market with the US becoming less and less formidable each day, the Global economy is currently and will continue to re-balance. I think we will get to a point where the US will loose its clout and power over the rest of the world, less favorable for us Americans, more favorable for the rest of the world.


It's too bad, it appears the US and her citizens are utterly helpless, unable to adapt and adjust to new economic realities based on the views of some here on this thread. Many guys on here are world travelers, but it seems the average american is clueless about the rest of the world, that is too bad. If that is the case, I agree, the US middle class is poised for elimination as we know it and we will eventually be a 2 class country, rich people and poor people. Even if that is the case, life will go on, the sun will continue to rise and set, albeit the life of prosperity as we have known it would be over in the US, and is over, my view is that American exceptionalism is gone as we once knew it. We will get a little taste of what life is like for the majority of people on the planet. Many of our citizens will see what it is like in a real way to have a globally poor lifestyle.


Here is analogy maybe to help explain my view. Imagine a basketball player who could dunk on a 20 foot basketball goal, he is the only one that could, and he was by far the most exceptional basketball player on the planet. Now this same player breaks his leg, after his leg is healed, he can only dunk on a 10 foot basketball goal. Now he is just like every other basketball player on the court, he is no longer exceptional. He still can play ball, and he can still compete with all the other players, he is just no longer exceptional, does not earn as much money, so his lifestyle is reduced. Now this basketball player has to live like the rest of the players, he has to give up all the luxuries and privileges that came with being the most exceptional player on the planet. His life is not over, and he will have to adjust, he can still dunk and play ball. Insert the US for this basketball player and the rest of the world for the other players on the court.

[Alabamaboy!]

I have to agree that obozo has prevented a lot of suffering by injecting all the printed money and borrowing 40Cents for every dollar spent by our govt.  If not for our broke unemployment insurance and the 45million people using food stamps we would have a better visual of the severity of the financial situation.  Food stamps and unemployment ins. were not available during the great depression.  All in all, there is not nearly the suffering now as there was then, but that is not to say that the suffering is coming up soon.   When it all finally shakes out, I won't be too surprised to see some rioting/lawlessness.  Right now the middle class is feeling really pissed off, but members of the middle class don't riot nowadays, when the suffering extends down to the lower classes, then I think we will see some rioting.  I don't want obozo to win in 2012, but if we get a fiscally responsible republican/tea partier, that starts cutting entitlements drastically then their will be blood in the streets!  I'm very interested in seeing how this ends, just so long as my family doesn't get caught in the crossfire.   


Fathertime!

That strategy seems about equal to a dying patient being on Hospice and pumping them full of morphine to ease the pain on the way out. It does not seem like much of a solution to the problem.

[Alabamaboy!]

Just came back from the barbershop right now. It was located right next to two other businesses which recently went out of business. It was a long wait there so I had time to read the paper, AARP magazine, and several other magazines. Everything was filled with negative information regarding the economy. And how there is no end in sight. The only positive thing I can see for sure is that the barber shop business seems to still be going OK!

[Colgando]

Just an FYI, I am agnostic when it comes to politics and economics, I do not have any pull in those arenas except my 1 vote which may not have been counted. I look at the playing field, evaluate it, assess the risks and opportunities, and I make the most prudent decision that I am able to, given the set of facts and the situation that I am dealing with. A young high school student applying for college, a college student deciding a major, a new worker to the work-force, a person looking for a job, a person recently laid-off, a person discouraged from looking for a job, a mid-career professional, a pre-retirees, retirees, poor people living off the govt, wealthy people, Planet Love world travelers, etc. are all in different situations and all need to receive customized advice and counsel because the answer on what to do is different for every unique person.

[Researcher]

well here is a quote straight from me
 
"money is only good for two things, saving & spending"
 
  piglett

  But Piglett at the rate our government is printing money pretty soon it will only be good for burning and wiping our arses!

     Researcher

[Researcher]

.      You have some good points Colgando.I agree with your attitude that a person needs to make decisions for themselves.I bought a house a few years ago and the manager at the Countrywide loans office(a wife of a friend) asked why I didn't borrow anywhere near what I qualified for.I told her that I had been a home owner since I was 19 years old and I had a formula I had used for over 20 years that worked for me personally.I also got a fixed loan.When the mortgage disaster hit and Countrywide was gobbled up she didn't wonder why I did what I did any more.

     About 7 years ago I had finished another program and gotten a degree.I had to choose between a job with Teledyne Brown, Boeing and Hyundai. I chose Hyundai and people thought I was nuts because I had also turned down a job with Mercedes Benz a year earlier. Why did you choose Hyundai? they asked. Today we are working sometimes 7 days a week and still can't produce enough cars.Some are shipped from Korea just to fill orders and it looks like no end in sight. Those people that asked me why I went with Hyundai don't ask any more.

    Being a world traveller has benefitted me.Hyundai is in every market that I have visited and they are there in a big way.They understand the tough markets or maybe now the emerging markets. The US market was something new for them.But I didn't hold out much hope for the US market 7 years ago and it definitely has changed into something that GM, Ford and the other manufacturers are having to adjust to while it looks more like something Hyundai is used to.

   From here on out Colgando my advice would be to bet on hard times if you want to come out on top.

   Just my 2 cents.

     Researcher

[no comment]

Maybe one of the folks predicting rioting in the streets can be a little more specific and give some details... who or what group will do the rioting?  Labor unions... a flash mob of the unemployed.... a particular ethnic group... illegal aliens....

[Researcher]

      I think the folks recieving the entitlements that will be cut will riot.That's pretty much what happened in Europe.The teacher's union in Wisconsin took to the streets when their right to bargain was threatened.I'm sure when the State of Wisconsin actually starts making cuts these folks will return.Not to mention the unemployed who have been collecting benefits for sometime now.When they are cut off they won't be too happy.

     I could see the illegals rioting but they are getting their way now.Obama is looking out for those criminals.Of course we may soon find out about the illegals:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/09/us-immigration-alabama-idUSTRE7584C920110609

           Researcher

[Colgando]

.      You have some good points Colgando.I agree with your attitude that a person needs to make decisions for themselves.I bought a house a few years ago and the manager at the Countrywide loans office(a wife of a friend) asked why I didn't borrow anywhere near what I qualified for.I told her that I had been a home owner since I was 19 years old and I had a formula I had used for over 20 years that worked for me personally.I also got a fixed loan.When the mortgage disaster hit and Countrywide was gobbled up she didn't wonder why I did what I did any more.

     About 7 years ago I had finished another program and gotten a degree.I had to choose between a job with Teledyne Brown, Boeing and Hyundai. I chose Hyundai and people thought I was nuts because I had also turned down a job with Mercedes Benz a year earlier. Why did you choose Hyundai? they asked. Today we are working sometimes 7 days a week and still can't produce enough cars.Some are shipped from Korea just to fill orders and it looks like no end in sight. Those people that asked me why I went with Hyundai don't ask any more.

    Being a world traveller has benefitted me.Hyundai is in every market that I have visited and they are there in a big way.They understand the tough markets or maybe now the emerging markets. The US market was something new for them.But I didn't hold out much hope for the US market 7 years ago and it definitely has changed into something that GM, Ford and the other manufacturers are having to adjust to while it looks more like something Hyundai is used to.

   From here on out Colgando my advice would be to bet on hard times if you want to come out on top.

   Just my 2 cents.

     Researcher

Thanks for sharing Researcher. Goes to show the benefits of having a global perspective, now if only the rest of our countrymen had such a perspective, we would be better off.


I think hard times are already here in the US and are here to stay, I do not think it is a matter of betting or not betting, it is the reality that is reflected in capital markets today and household balance sheets. We are underweight US Domestics and US Treasuries, companies who are primarily aligned to the US Consumer are hurting right now and will continue to hurt for the foreseable future I think. Companies who have diverse revenue streams, aligned to the international space are doing better and we think will continue to generate profits and return capital to shareholders, so we are overweight those particular US Multi-nationals and foreign companies. We prefer corporate and sovereign bonds over US Treasuries. It's too bad because the people that have money are doing just fine, they have seen their portfolios and net-worth recover and there are plenty of opportunities to invest in the capital markets and get a return on their investments. The people who do not have are getting poorer, one of the negative sides of capitalism IMO, middle class americans at large are not in a position right now to take advantage of global opportunities, so we are poised to loose out to competitor countries.


Personally, I am aligning my career to the international space and to wealthy people in the US, lots of opportunities there. When people ask me what they should study in school, I advice them to study Information Technology, Science or Health Care. I advice them to think twice about studying those liberal arts and business majors. What we consider hard times in the US is normal life for the majority of people on the planet, so maybe that is where I am disconnecting from you guys. I consider a family living in a 1,500 square foot detached single family home, with only the husband, the wife, 2 kids living there, with 2 cars in the driveway to be living a life of luxury, people need to be prepared to give up that lifestyle. Sad really, the American Dream as it were is slipping away.


In the same way the US was enjoying good times while many in the developing world were struggling will be reversed now IMO. The rest of the world will continue to see their quality of life improve, will the US will see our quality of life decline, IMO. Violent civil unrest is not an uncommon occurrence on a global basis, I will not be surprised if this occurs in the US.

[piglett]

The people who do not have are getting poorer, one of the negative sides of capitalism IMO

well please tell us what system we should switch to then........
my understanding is this 90% of the millionares in this country didn't start out that way. the system we have allowed them do this. 
 

I consider a family living in a 1,500 square foot detached single family home, with only the husband, the wife, 2 kids living there, with 2 cars in the driveway to be living a life of luxury, people need to be prepared to give up that lifestyle.

I'm sorry but did some leftist professor brainwash you in school or something?
first of all there is a hell of a difference between having 2 new luxury vehicles in the driveway that you financed & having two $1500 just get you from point A to B cars in the driveway that you own.
what exactly is wrong with 1500 square feet , would 3000 square feet suit you better ??  
how about if the guy had 3 or 4 wives how would that be ??  
 
 
 

In the same way the US was enjoying good times while many in the developing world were struggling will be reversed now IMO. The rest of the world will continue to see their quality of life improve, will the US will see our quality of life decline, IMO.

do you really think the tin horn dictators that are running most 3rd world countrys are going to allow a large middle class?? starving uneducated peasants rarely overthrow the government they worry more about where their next meal will come from. years ago i worked with a collage student who was from Ecuador , man he had nothing good to say about the lower classes in his country, guys like him are running the show in S.A. they love power & don't want any real changes, sad but true.
 
 
pig

[Colgando]

well please tell us what system we should switch to then........
my understanding is this 90% of the millionares in this country didn't start out that way. the system we have allowed them do this. 
 

 
I'm sorry but did some leftist professor brainwash you in school or something?
first of all there is a hell of a difference between having 2 new luxury vehicles in the driveway that you financed & having two $1500 just get you from point A to B cars in the driveway that you own.
what exactly is wrong with 1500 square feet , would 3000 square feet suit you better ??  
how about if the guy had 3 or 4 wives how would that be ??  
 
 
 do you really think the tin horn dictators that are running most 3rd world countrys are going to allow a large middle class?? starving uneducated peasants rarely overthrow the government they worry more about where their next meal will come from. years ago i worked with a collage student who was from Ecuador , man he had nothing good to say about the lower classes in his country, guys like him are running the show in S.A. they love power & don't want any real changes, sad but true.
 
 
pig

Hey Pig:


I do think Capitalism is the best economic system. It is a cut throat system to me where the weakest amongst us don't do so well. While many people want to do go, want to work hard, sometimes the chips do not fall in their favor. I think free-market capitalism is the best path to prosperity for the majority of our citizens and that is the best system.


What I am saying about lifestyle is that the majority of people in the world cannot live like we do in the US, regardless of the price-tag of the vehicles in our driveways. All things considered, it appears the middle class in the US will be shrinking and that many people will have to adjust their lifestyles. Take Colombia for example, you have whole families living together, sure there is the love, but a large part of it is driven by economics. In the US, if there is a family of 10, cousins, brothers, sisters, uncles, spouses, etc, and only 3 of them can find work whereas before, they could all find work, they will need to consider all moving in together, sharing cars and helping each other get through the hard times, which is the case in many corners of the earth.


Well, regarding the growing middle-class in emerging countries, the powers that be will allow a middle class to grow for money and power. China is motivated by money and power, they will continue to grow their economy to become a formidable world super power. India is motivated by money and power, in part to strengthen themselves against Pakistan, and to be more relevant on the world stage. Money talks on this earth, and as long as the people in power are getting paid, they will continue to promote policies in their countries that allow them to get paid. As someone rightly noted on this thread, the shifting of jobs and wealth to the emerging markets has been happening since the Clinton Administration, the 90s.


It is a function of money and profit. It is already happening and the powers that be in the US are behind the curve, still pushing the same ideas. If they want jobs to come back to the US, they are going to have to level the playing field. The US seems to get the short-end of these free trade agreements, the jobs leave the US, then the products that are made are sent back to the US to be sold. A company can open a factory in China or India and they don't have to deal with minimum wages, health and safety standards, pensions, employee benefits, regulations, taxes or if they do, it is not as burdensome as compared to the US. Just not a level playing field, I do not hear any politician talking about that.

[Researcher]

   Hey Colgando right now most of the emerging markets have either socialist or communist governments. Maybe that is the way to go.......

   Right now I think we have a jobs crisis and soon a currency crisis.Too many dollars have already been printed.Something will more that likely give soon.If a currency drop in value occurs in a big way this will wipe out alot of wealth and there will be fewer wealthy people.Only the super rich that are on the inside will be protected.If you want proof that it is possible stop and think the next time you travel outside the country.When you pay for something small with a 20,000 dollar bill in another currency ask yourself how the heck something like that happened. I wonder how soon we will be using a 20,000 dollar bill in US currency.

          Researcher

[Colgando]

   Hey Colgando right now most of the emerging markets have either socialist or communist governments. Maybe that is the way to go.......

   Right now I think we have a jobs crisis and soon a currency crisis.Too many dollars have already been printed.Something will more that likely give soon.If a currency drop in value occurs in a big way this will wipe out alot of wealth and there will be fewer wealthy people.Only the super rich that are on the inside will be protected.If you want proof that it is possible stop and think the next time you travel outside the country.When you pay for something small with a 20,000 dollar bill in another currency ask yourself how the heck something like that happened. I wonder how soon we will be using a 20,000 dollar bill in US currency.

          Researcher

That is a good point researcher, if you look at the gains in the equity markets on a currency basis, it is not that impressive because the dollar has lost so much value against major world currencies. The thing is, wealthy people have investment options to protect themselves. When I say wealthy, I mean $3 million net worth and up. Less than that, the options are more limited for the rest of us. Many people are shorting the dollar, getting paid, going long other world currencies, getting paid, many people bought gold and other commodities, getting paid, lots of long/short strategies in play. Many people who invest on foreign exchanges get a built in currency play when they convert back to US dollars. Believe me when I tell you, rich people will continue to get rich, it is not that difficult once someone has that kind of money to work with. Those of us who do not have those options, me included, are going to be hurting.


Sure, many of the emerging markets do not play by the same rules as the US, not a level playing field, these countries treat their workers poorly when compared to the US. Probably will catch up to them eventually, but for the time being, there is nothing stopping US based companies (We were discussing today at the office whether you can really call these companies "US" companies anymore) from investing in Communist China. There is an understanding between the US and Chinese govts, the US middle class is getting the short end of the stick. So much so, the Obama Administration doesn't even call them out on their human rights violations, prior administrations didn't say much either.

[robert angel]

Re:
>>stop and think the next time you travel outside the country.When you pay for something small with a 20,000 dollar bill in another currency ask yourself how the heck something like that happened. I wonder how soon we will be using a 20,000 dollar bill in US currency.<<
Indeed. In the Philippines, which hasn't gotten nearly as out of synch with the US dollar as many other nation's currencies have, it wasn't so long ago that $18.50 would get you the Phillipines largest bill--a one thousand peso note. Now it's closing in on $24 dollars  to get you a 1000 peso note. Compounded with the fact that the prices of almost everything there has gone up for native Filipinos and then on top of that, a draconian VAT (Value Added Tax) has been tacked on, and it's not nearly the bargain for the US traveler that it used to be.
You need crisp, like new $50 or better yet, $100 bills, if you expect to get the best exchange rate--they knock down the exchange rate for anything smaller.

[Researcher]

   But don't forget Colgando many of these foreign currencies are backed by the US dollar.Investing is a rich person's game that is for sure but it's a game where the wealtiest investors always come out ahead at the expense of those that aren't as wealthy.I believe that there will be fewer and fewer millionaires in the world, or at least the US, as wealth is transferred to China.Don't forget that in China, the government still runs things.

    I think the idea of a middle class coming up in emerging markets is a myth.People that want to mask this myth are only redefining the term middle class.I would say there are more working poor being called middle class as there is a seemingly endless supply of cheap labor in the world.That's ok, many believe prices will align with wages.I think they will.As people make less and less money goods will have to get cheaper.I think some products will simply go away as many people focus on surviving and buying the bare necessities.Some products will be just too expensive because of the raw materials it takes to make them.Labor isn't always the thing that determines the cost of a product.So I wouldn't hold out for much hope from these emerging markets.Right now they are pretty much riding the coat tails of the US middle class, wealth is being drained from the US and while the millionaires are benefitting righ now ultimately the billionaires will be the winners with only a few of them left standing.

   

           Researcher

[Colgando]

   But don't forget Colgando many of these foreign currencies are backed by the US dollar.Investing is a rich person's game that is for sure but it's a game where the wealtiest investors always come out ahead at the expense of those that aren't as wealthy.I believe that there will be fewer and fewer millionaires in the world, or at least the US, as wealth is transferred to China.Don't forget that in China, the government still runs things.

    I think the idea of a middle class coming up in emerging markets is a myth.People that want to mask this myth are only redefining the term middle class.I would say there are more working poor being called middle class as there is a seemingly endless supply of cheap labor in the world.That's ok, many believe prices will align with wages.I think they will.As people make less and less money goods will have to get cheaper.I think some products will simply go away as many people focus on surviving and buying the bare necessities.Some products will be just too expensive because of the raw materials it takes to make them.Labor isn't always the thing that determines the cost of a product.So I wouldn't hold out for much hope from these emerging markets.Right now they are pretty much riding the coat tails of the US middle class, wealth is being drained from the US and while the millionaires are benefitting righ now ultimately the billionaires will be the winners with only a few of them left standing.

   

           Researcher

Good point researcher, as I mentioned early in response to the US going to the tankers, the US Dollar is still the world reserve currency by far, energy is still denominated in US dollars, the US Treasury Securities are still used as the benchmark rate to derive other lending rates and as a bedrock for bond portfolios, the US is still the world's largest exporter. The rest of the world cannot get rid of us that fast, they still need us, but as I mentioned, dependency on the US is declining day by day, many of these countries are rattling their sabers saying it is time to move away from the US dollar. They are a little premature with this IMO but they have telegraphed their intentions, and they are capable of achieving them in my estimation. Just because China is communist doesn't mean they cannot be an economic super power. Their govt run capitalism, albeit something I do not think is best in the long-term, but at least for now, allows them to make centralize decisions regarding their economy, look-out for China 1st, without having to deal with a cumbersome legislative process and bend to special interests.


I agree with you, the definition of middle class varies from country to country, and depending on who you talk to. One understanding is that the middle class are the people between the poor and the rich and is relative to the country in question, people in the middle. Using the US middle class, which is exceptional, as a basis for comparison may not be the best thing to do when evaluating an economy. If a person in China goes from not working, impoverished, to working and earning, say $1 an hour, then that person has entered the middle class of China, between poor and rich, they have more than poor, but less than rich. Now, take this person and multiply by the 10s of millions of people making this jump in China, multiply by their increasing productivity, then sell those goods to the US and western world, well, at least the money they are making China is not a myth, the extent at which their wages and lifestyles are improving is grey, I am not an expert on China, I just see the profits they are generating and it is compelling. I also see them building out a consumer driven section of their economy, China gets it, they are smart people, this is happening in India too, they are smart, they get it, they are starting to have money to spend, not like we do in the US of coarse, but their disposable income is increasing everyday at impressive rates. We now see Walmart, McDonalds, I even heard Starbucks wants to go there, consumer based businesses like these building out operations. Next it will be technology upgrades, a self-sustaining trend heading up, they have a ways to go, but it is happening, it will continue to happen. All of this is far from a myth and don't forget there are over 2 billion people in these 2 countries alone. Their are self-sustaining dynamics at play in these economies that no economist will deny, to not make a play on this or make adjustments will result in a person missing the bus, I have not heard an economist disagree with this, liberal or conservative, bull or bear. What they do disagree on is the extent to which the US will effect these trends, which goes back to the uncertain US economy. There would be no recovery if it were not for these countries, sure, the US is still a formidable power for the time being, no denying that.


I think that is a reasonable observation with what could happen in the US with prices and with what will happen to us when we spend dollars overseas, although prices are moving up currently and squeezing the middle class. We are in for a tough road, no doubt. 


Well researcher, we gotta think globally, I think you underestimate how much money millions of dollars is and what people can do with that, these people will be just fine and will continue to make money because they can participate in the Global economy as investors. Us middle class americans are worrying about putting gas in the car, buying groceries, we cannot even contemplate investing in the global economy, we are technical bankrupt, many of us with our houses being underwater. Don't get me wrong, these foreign countries will have their problems, right now they are trying to cool their economies to prevent inflation, they are growing to fast. Eventually their people will want more freedoms that are afforded to Americans under the constitution.

[Researcher]

     I don't think I am underestimating how much millions of dollars are.I'm just taking things into perspective.In 2008 the stock market lost 7 Trillion dollars....That is much more that several millions so some folks lost alot.Bernie Madoff made some people that had money dirt poor.I can remember a time when you never really heard of billionaires now they seem to be quite common.I just don't see much of a good future these days.Companies are out for the quick profit and not in it for the long haul.I see that coming back to haunt all of us soon.I don't think many, if any, will be immune to it either.

        Researcher

[fathertime]

Maybe one of the folks predicting rioting in the streets can be a little more specific and give some details... who or what group will do the rioting?  Labor unions... a flash mob of the unemployed.... a particular ethnic group... illegal aliens....

Hey NC! 


Well the rioting can come from various places depending on the future decisions by the govt.   I could see unions taking to the streets....i could see teachers organizing boycotts and silly students that support their teachers join in and get out of hand, i could see the mexican illegals having rallies (organized by latino radio stations) that get out of hand ....i could see the inner cities exploding from cuts to welfare and lack of jobs, i can see a natural disaster creating morphing into rioting much worse than times in the past....heck a credit crisis and major changes do to that could also strike...there are other scenarios but these were off the top of my head.  I'm looking forward to seeing what goes down.  What do you think NC?
The big thing coming up is the next election (if obama doesn't call it off)      If obozo loses and a hard liner comes in, there is no telling what is going to happen...I hate to say it but I think obozo will somehow cling to power though.


Fathertime!

[Colgando]

Fellas, that was a good debate tonight. I like T-Paw the best so far, in regards to bringing manufacturing back to the US, he said.....I am not stupid, I am not a chump, these other countries are not playing by the rules and he is going to do something about it....did not get much play though, but I think he is on the right track, that is a tough problem to solve, China has so much leverage on us when they own over $1 trillion of our debt and we need them to refinance our debt....they all were talking about significantly reducing the corporate tax rate to give incentive to companies to repatriate profits.....taking away regulations, restructuring entitlement programs, bunch of good ideas. I like how Newt said they need a Senate majority to get anything done, very important, Repubs need a super majority in the Senate to get things done that need done. Interesting with the debt ceiling, Bachman and Romney both seemed to flirt with the idea of a stand-off, whoooh, that is scary to think about....got to love Ron Paul, everything he says I think he really means it, good points on the Kenysian bubble created over the past 70 years and how the Fed Reserve contributes to creating asset bubbles with playing with the money supply. Hermain Cain seemed real, he was not formidable at all on foreign policy, I though his answers were week, but he is real down to earth. Romney is a champ, he is good, real polished, I like his response on Obamneycare.


Man, I love this stuff. Thanks for listening to me on my soap box, I just love this stuff, maybe I will get in the game one day and actually advocate for something...jejejeje 

[no comment]

Well the rioting can come from various places depending on the future decisions by the govt.   I could see unions taking to the streets....i could see teachers organizing boycotts and silly students that support their teachers join in and get out of hand, i could see the mexican illegals having rallies (organized by latino radio stations) that get out of hand ....i could see the inner cities exploding from cuts to welfare and lack of jobs, i can see a natural disaster creating morphing into rioting much worse than times in the past....heck a credit crisis and major changes do to that could also strike...there are other scenarios but these were off the top of my head.  I'm looking forward to seeing what goes down.  What do you think NC?
The big thing coming up is the next election (if obama doesn't call it off)      If obozo loses and a hard liner comes in, there is no telling what is going to happen...I hate to say it but I think obozo will somehow cling to power though.

Alan Greenspan warned about irrational exuberance,  let's not get into irrational anxiety.  What unions are you talking about?  The only unions that would riot would be old style, male dominated, blue collar unions like the Teamsters.  Teacher unions and students might pull off a publicity stunt like laying down in the street, nothing more.  Many illegal aliens have gone home because of the economy and besides, they're more accustomed to the economic hardship than natives. 
As for the next election, I don't see any "hard liners" among the Republicans with a chance of winning.  Rick Santorum won't win.


China has been mentioned much in this thread.  Consider that they may well have a real estate bubble of their own, and a demographics issue that will affect them.  They have an aging population and a small birth rate.  India has an increasing young population.  India may overtake China in a few decades.  Hopefully there will be a demand in countries with cheap labor forces for better working conditions and benefits.  This could work in our favor.

[Researcher]

   I don't think that cutting corporate taxes will bring companies back.Many companies are making record profits and have tons of cash on hand.How much money do they need to build in the US?Tax breaks will do nothing.

    I just hope that this election year will be on issues and not on who has the best slogans like "Hope" and "Change" .I think Pawlenty is brave by putting his ideas out there this early on.Everyone knows that by the time elections roll around the other candidates would have picked his ideas apart.Not to mention that most candidates actually campaign close to voting time because voters attention spans are so short.

      Researcher

[fathertime]

Alan Greenspan warned about irrational exuberance,  let's not get into irrational anxiety.  What unions are you talking about?  The only unions that would riot would be old style, male dominated, blue collar unions like the Teamsters.  Teacher unions and students might pull off a publicity stunt like laying down in the street, nothing more.  Many illegal aliens have gone home because of the economy and besides, they're more accustomed to the economic hardship than natives. 
As for the next election, I don't see any "hard liners" among the Republicans with a chance of winning.  Rick Santorum won't win.

 

It appears you are on record as saying we will not have riots anytime in the near future.  I say the chances are better than 50/50.


Fathertime!

[Capstone]

I think the idea of a middle class coming up in emerging markets is a myth.People that want to mask this myth are only redefining the term middle class

I agree with you, the definition of middle class varies from country to country, and depending on who you talk to. One understanding is that the middle class are the people between the poor and the rich and is relative to the country in question, people in the middle. Using the US middle class, which is exceptional, as a basis for comparison may not be the best thing to do when evaluating an economy. If a person in China goes from not working, impoverished, to working and earning, say $1 an hour, then that person has entered the middle class of China, between poor and rich, they have more than poor, but less than rich.

The fact that there is a huge middle class in these emerging markets, particularly China, is no myth. And when I say middle class I am not referring to factory workers earning a couple of dollars an hour - those people are still considered to be the working poor. I am talking about the hundreds of millions of engineers, teachers, doctors, programmers, bankers, etc who earn very real wages which enable them to live the same type of middle class lifestyle that most of us are used to here in the US. This includes owning a nice apartment which they do not share with anyone other than their immediate family, one or 2 new cars, name brand clothing, eating out at nice restaurants several times a week, etc. My wife was a high school teacher in China who owned her own car and although she still lived with her parents, she owned an apartment which she rented out, ate out with friends almost every day, took several vacation trips every year.


This middle class is in not  the rich class which has also exploded across China but your run of the mill professional class. I good example of this is that when I went back to Xiamen last year the city government had just released some data that showed 4,000 new cars were being registered in the city every month.  Xiamen is a city with a population of about 5 million - pretty small by Chinese standards. There is no way that these 4,000 cars/month are being purchased by rich people alone but instead by mostly the middle class. In Beijing, there are so many millions of cars on the roads now, that a vehicle registration lottery had to be established in order to cut down on the huge numbers of cars that were being added to the roads each month - again there is no way that the rich class alone are the ones buying all of these cars.