Riots in the streets 2008-2013 style.

[Colgando]

Last week we officially have surpassed the housing drop of the great depression, I could provide a dozen links but here is a very credible one from marketwatch.  Does that qualify as 'any objective measure'.  We also still in a free-fall in housing, when we are done the great depression will seem mild in regards to the drop in housing prices, in my opinion.  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-housing-is-in-a-depression-2011-06-01?siteid=rss







Fathertime!

Ok, all was too strong, I accept the report of the decline in housing prices back to 2002 prices from the link, that is a statistical fact and the comparison to the percentage drop during the great depression compared to now. I would comment that the writer takes the data from the Capital Economics think tank and draws his own conclusions which are open to debate. The statistical facts are facts though.


I would add that we do not see the run on the banks as was the case in the 1930s in part due to FDIC insurance that was implemented after the depression, that is a critical difference in the 2 time periods. We also see 91% of the american population working now compared to 75% of Americans working during the great depression, that is significant. We also see the rest of the world picking up the slack with GDP growth, which helps to prevent a double dip recession along with Monetary and Fiscal stimulus. I think the writer from the link made a good point regarding future inflation concerns, a lot of money has been printed.


Hmmmm, rioting in the streets, I could see that happening one day, God forbid, if the US Gov't goes bankrupt and has a forced restructuring by its creditors, there may very well be blood in the streets, that is a possibility. Let's hope we can get our fiscal house in order, that is a big hope, I know. I think entitlement recipients  could absorb cuts made on a prudent basis, in a phased in manner. If the gov't is unable to continue to refinance the debt and borrow more money, then entitlement spending would prob come to a drastic halt, maybe, there would be rioting potentially, looting and pillaging.

[fathertime]

  We also see 91% of the american population working now compared to 75% of Americans working during the great depression, that is significant. 

91% of Americans working?  That is not correct, the actual number of Americans working is roughly 45% the lowest number in almost 30 years.  Here is the link from USA today.  http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2011-04-13-more-americans-leave-labor-force.htm
 
Now I know I'm twisting what you meant with your 91% stat, but I would like you to realize that the govt given unemployment rate has been watered down for about 75 years.  What it means to be unemployed now is a lot different than what it meant in the 1930's.  Most of the unemployed are not counted nowadays but in the 1930's 14 year olds that were looking for work WERE counted as part of the unemployment figure!!
The united states workforce has declined, the percentage doesn't reflect that because of all the additional requirements needed to count as offically unemployed. 
Here is a humorous  video, that somebody posted somewhere recently. 
http://youtu.be/Ulu3SCAmeBA
Fathertime!


BTW: Thank you for realizing and acknowledging your earlier mistatement regarding the housing depression. 

[fathertime]

      I did see a story today on CNBC about how we have been spending 100 billion dollars a year to support the military effort in Afghanistan and giving them nearly 19 billion dolllars a year to help their economy. It was refreshing to see how they reported that the Afghan people are spitting in our faces as we shower them with all this money.Many are starting to call for an end to this effort in Iraq and Afghanistan because of the cost.Could it be that folks are starting to come to their senses?

     Too much expensive PR campaigns instead of real wars is a big part of what has bankrupted us.Lesson learned?...nation building doesn't work. A coworker of mine spent a year in Iraq.He said we basically bring in cash by the pallet load that gets grabbed up by corrupt people there.

      This nonsense needs to be cut out before Social Security or Medicare is even discussed.Maybe when our government is done debating Weiner's wiener they will get down to the business at hand....oh who am I kidding... they will just get back to business as usual!

          Researcher

i agree 1000% percent,  we need to cut the military expenses in afghan, libya, and iraq, before we start cutting entitlements....bankrupted nations can't be the world's policeman...the americans peoples interest is here at home...the military men should be on the border stopping the southern invasion, not creating a bunch of new enemies around the world. 




Fathertime!   

[piglett]

what we need boys is a good shooting war
now I'm not talking about some little wimpy war like the ones we have rite now . NOPE I'm talking serious war, you know the kind that pisses off the masses & gets couple million men to engulf the recruiting stations. the only question is this ...........
 
what sort of thing would be required to get the complacent masses off their butts ,& to put down the xbox controller, & and not always worrying about who threw a ball around last night. i would say it would require a real serious wake up call , but I'm not sure what kind.
 
anyhow a serious shooting war would provide full employment to all & if structured correctly get all able bodied people off the gov. ta-ta
 
 
pig

[fathertime]

Wow!  I just saw a clip on Ray's favorite channel (MSNBC) talking about Riots in the streets and civil unrest!  I am surprised that that the media is finally acknowledging that this COULD happen here.  Maybe obozo will postpone the 2012 election because of the chance of rioting afterwords, seems reasonable to me!   

Fathertime!

[Colgando]

91% of Americans working?  That is not correct, the actual number of Americans working is roughly 45% the lowest number in almost 30 years.  Here is the link from USA today.  http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2011-04-13-more-americans-leave-labor-force.htm
 
Now I know I'm twisting what you meant with your 91% stat, but I would like you to realize that the govt given unemployment rate has been watered down for about 75 years.  What it means to be unemployed now is a lot different than what it meant in the 1930's.  Most of the unemployed are not counted nowadays but in the 1930's 14 year olds that were looking for work WERE counted as part of the unemployment figure!!
The united states workforce has declined, the percentage doesn't reflect that because of all the additional requirements needed to count as offically unemployed. 
Here is a humorous  video, that somebody posted somewhere recently. 
http://youtu.be/Ulu3SCAmeBA
Fathertime!


BTW: Thank you for realizing and acknowledging your earlier mistatement regarding the housing depression.

Well, based on my read, that article is not looking at the unemployment rate as calculated and reported by the govt and used by the authorities to measure the health of the labor market. The unemployment rate is 9% right now meaning that 9% of people looking for jobs as measured by that statistic cannot find one, that means 91% of people who are looking for jobs are working. That article appears to be looking at what percent of the population is working regardless of if they are looking for work or not, and it appears to include retired people and children, all the population, including people not looking for work.


There is a lot of noise in unemployment numbers, sure, personally, I prefer to look at underemployment which is closer to 17%, the amount of people who want work and don't have it, and includes people with less than full-time work that want a full-time job. One thing that really throws the unemployment number off is that when people give up on looking for work, they fall out of the unemployed statistic after some time and are considered not looking for work. The 25% unemployed back in the great depression is an ok statistic for me, I do not feel the need to over scrutinize that number, it is clear to me the unemployment picture was far worse back during the great depression. Also, the unemployment rate with college educated people is at 4.5%, non-college educated is at 14% if I remember correctly, so the economy is good for some, bad for others, terrible for the rest.


I say all that to push back on the idea that the US is in a great depression or heading for one. Sure, there are states that are awful like Michigan, not many cars made in Detroit anymore, California, broke govt with population decline and an exodus of businesses, other areas are ok, like North Carolina for example. Worst case, I think we will  end up looking like Europe with high taxes and unemployment in the 10% to 20% range consistently with huge govt spending, far from a Great Depression. Not saying that is a good situation, just that I do not see a great depression here.

[utopiacowboy]

It is already being called the Greater Depression. Record numbers of unemployed, people on food stamps, low participation in the labor force, declining standard of living - we got it all.

Those who are savvy are stocking up on guns, ammunition and food supplies. It's going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better.

[Colgando]

It is already being called the Greater Depression. Record numbers of unemployed, people on food stamps, low participation in the labor force, declining standard of living - we got it all.

Those who are savvy are stocking up on guns, ammunition and food supplies. It's going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better.

We will see...time will tell.....you should buy gold as well, given your prediction, the dollar and dollar denominated assets will be worthless....BTW, I do not hear any serious people calling it the Greater Depression by the way, the facts do not support that view....however, many serious people are predicting a double dip recession. And when I say serious people, I mean the money and asset managers and authorities that have to make serious decisions about what to do with billions and trillions of dollars, not the peanut gallery, which I am a member off, jejejeje.

[fathertime]

Well, based on my read, that article is not looking at the unemployment rate as calculated and reported by the govt and used by the authorities to measure the health of the labor market. The unemployment rate is 9% right now meaning that 9% of people looking for jobs as measured by that statistic cannot find one, that means 91% of people who are looking for jobs are working. That article appears to be looking at what percent of the population is working regardless of if they are looking for work or not, and it appears to include retired people and children, all the population, including people not looking for work.


There is a lot of noise in unemployment numbers, sure, personally, I prefer to look at underemployment which is closer to 17%, the amount of people who want work and don't have it, and includes people with less than full-time work that want a full-time job. One thing that really throws the unemployment number off is that when people give up on looking for work, they fall out of the unemployed statistic after some time and are considered not looking for work. The 25% unemployed back in the great depression is an ok statistic for me, I do not feel the need to over scrutinize that number, it is clear to me the unemployment picture was far worse back during the great depression. Also, the unemployment rate with college educated people is at 4.5%, non-college educated is at 14% if I remember correctly, so the economy is good for some, bad for others, terrible for the rest.
 

Hey Colgado!



I’m aware of what you meant by the 91% number, but take a look and you’ll see the way you worded it was that 91% of the population was working, when in fact labor participation is at a very low point right now. 


I’m not convinced we are heading into a great depression, I think we have already entered it and still we are going down further. 


As I mentioned earlier, I don’t believe the jimmied and tainted stats that we are fed from the govt.  Here is a nice alternative measure of under/unemployment which puts us at around 22.5%….that is the number that I believe to be true. 
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts


I also believe that our GDP is completely exaggerated.  An example of that is RobertAngel’s recent hospital bill for 13K for 12 hours….had that happened in China, they would have probably thrown water on his face, kicked him in the ass and made him get back to work.   Here we wheeled him into the hospital and a few hour later he is charged 13k, WHICH IS ADDED TO THE GDP.  Our real economy is not growing, even if the GDP figure keeps ticking upward.


As I’ve said earlier, we are not yet suffering to the extent the people in the 1930’s were suffering, because of the govt. spending and technology, but I believe our financial situation is grimmer now.   


I can see scenarios where things get a little crazy here in the violence dept.  and regarding the govt I’m not an optimist like you, but it is good to know there are some of you out there!  It is nice to have somebody to take the opposing viewpoint and do so in a reasonable manner.




Fathertime!

[Colgando]

Hey Colgado!



I’m aware of what you meant by the 91% number, but take a look and you’ll see the way you worded it was that 91% of the population was working, when in fact labor participation is at a very low point right now. 


I’m not convinced we are heading into a great depression, I think we have already entered it and still we are going down further. 


As I mentioned earlier, I don’t believe the jimmied and tainted stats that we are fed from the govt.  Here is a nice alternative measure of under/unemployment which puts us at around 22.5%….that is the number that I believe to be true. 
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts


I also believe that our GDP is completely exaggerated.  An example of that is RobertAngel’s recent hospital bill for 13K for 12 hours….had that happened in China, they would have probably thrown water on his face, kicked him in the ass and made him get back to work.   Here we wheeled him into the hospital and a few hour later he is charged 13k, WHICH IS ADDED TO THE GDP.  Our real economy is not growing, even if the GDP figure keeps ticking upward.


As I’ve said earlier, we are not yet suffering to the extent the people in the 1930’s were suffering, because of the govt. spending and technology, but I believe our financial situation is grimmer now.   


I can see scenarios where things get a little crazy here in the violence dept.  and regarding the govt I’m not an optimist like you, but it is good to know there are some of you out there!  It is nice to have somebody to take the opposing viewpoint and do so in a reasonable manner.




Fathertime!

Cool man, I am on-board with the term Great Recession, I think that is what this period of US economic history will be called. Sure, the unemployment situation is not good, no dispute there.


I try my best to be reasonable, I work in Finance, so I spend all day reading these reports and economic data and have to advise people what to do with their money, there are so many data points, many that are improving, many that are declining, mixed bag right now. Just read an article that stated the US Household has lost 16 trillion in net worth since 2007, the majority from real estate and investable securities and that the US Household has recovered half the wealth during the recovery. Real estate prices continue to be the drag to household net worth.


My view is more from a macro-level, then customized to an individual level, top down, bottom up, it is a global playing field now, the US is just one pole in the big scheme of things, while the world is reseting right now and I do believe we are heading into a multi-polar global economy. There will be losers in the US, the worker that has skills with his hands, I feel for this worker, there is nothing for him to make or produce in the US at this time, and may be the case for a while, I think this group of workers will keep underemployment high for a while.


I do think the glory days are gone, the 1990s are not coming back anytime soon I do not think. What is acceptable to me and the outcome that may happen is manageable to me, although it will be painful and could potentially lead to riots in the streets if a lot of things go wrong.


What is interesting to me is that I can see class warfare coming in the future, there are going to be Americans that will be just fine, then there will be a group of Americans, workers that use their hands to make a living, that will struggle and will have to look to the government for wealth redistribution. There may be continued upward pressure on taxes for the people working and we may end up with a situation where the majority of the electorate can elect people to redistribute wealth to them. That is what has me worried, it appears that is the way it is in Europe.


Yeah man, that real estate bubble was massive, and it exploded in a major way, a lot of damage. Crazy, they were building these skyrise condo buildings like the market was going up forever, so many vacant properties, so many under water properties, so many foreclosures, it is ugly. I hope we bottom next year, we are still declining.


I would say I am a global optimist, on a global basis, the world is doing just fine from an economical point of view, the US is in for a hurting. I think those of us who can align ourselves to the opportunities of the future will be just fine. Those of us who can't do this are in trouble.

[utopiacowboy]

We will see...time will tell.....you should buy gold as well, given your prediction, the dollar and dollar denominated assets will be worthless....BTW, I do not hear any serious people calling it the Greater Depression by the way, the facts do not support that view....however, many serious people are predicting a double dip recession. And when I say serious people, I mean the money and asset managers and authorities that have to make serious decisions about what to do with billions and trillions of dollars, not the peanut gallery, which I am a member off, jejejeje.

Google the term "Greater Depression" - you'll get 433,000 hits including articles like this one by non-serious person, Doug Casey:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/casey/casey11.html

The US government is already making plans for widespread civil unrest although from what my sources in the military tell me, there are no guarantees that the military will suppress a popular revolt. In fact a military coup is much more likely given the hatred that most military personnel have for the criminal that occupies the White House.

[Colgando]

Google the term "Greater Depression" - you'll get 433,000 hits including articles like this one by non-serious person, Doug Casey:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/casey/casey11.html

The US government is already making plans for widespread civil unrest although from what my sources in the military tell me, there are no guarantees that the military will suppress a popular revolt. In fact a military coup is much more likely given the hatred that most military personnel have for the criminal that occupies the White House.

That is a good article, he seems serious to me, I can't argue with anything he said really, sound economic and finance thought and theory. Using the Greater Depression as a term is hyperbole to me.


He did write the article in 2006 and appears to have predicted where we are today to an extent. The catastrophe of the Greater Depression as he describes it is not here yet, 75% decline in housing prices, trillions of dollars flooding back to the US, a stagflation environment.


He seems to describe a stagflation environment where interest rates run up, along with prices while economic growth remains low, a very real possibility and threat. We are not quite there yet, but inflation is on the horizon and economic growth is anemic right now. I think that is a good point, the Fed Reserve is in a tight situation, when to tighten and how to deal with inflation.


We are 5 years out from this article and his most negative predictions are not true yet. Could be possible, but he did not mention many other factors at play and used an isolated set of facts to make his case, not that he is wrong, he even mentioned he could not really go in depth about some of his thoughts.


Sure, it could get really bad, but he did say that many people will keep advancing, keep innovating, keep producing. The downside he mentions is possible to prevent, he conceded that it is possible if aliens go to the white house or something like that. A lot of things still need to happen in order to have continued recovery in the US or a double dip recession that turned into a depression.

[fathertime]

I try my best to be reasonable, I work in Finance, so I spend all day reading these reports and economic data and have to advise people what to do with their money, there are so many data points, many that are improving, many that are declining, mixed bag right now.

I'd like for you to tell me what data points are improving in a meaningful way. 


Thanks,
Fathertime!

[fathertime]

Google the term "Greater Depression" - you'll get 433,000 hits including articles like this one by non-serious person, Doug Casey:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/casey/casey11.html

The US government is already making plans for widespread civil unrest although from what my sources in the military tell me, there are no guarantees that the military will suppress a popular revolt. In fact a military coup is much more likely given the hatred that most military personnel have for the criminal that occupies the White House.

it is nice to see people even more pessimistic than me in regards to our pathetic situation!


Thanks for the article UC, I agree with a lot he had to say!


Fathertime!

[Colgando]

I'd like for you to tell me what data points are improving in a meaningful way. 


Thanks,
Fathertime!

Hey FT...well, since we have been in recovery, major economic data has been trending in a good direction, some areas are anemic of course, but from a holistic point of view on the economy, the economy is currently recovering. That is not to say that a double dip recession could not happen where the economy starts trending down again.


This recovery has the same characteristics as most recoveries, when an economy transitions from recession to expansion during the business cycle, cyclical trends kick in, so economist look to trends in unemployment, GDP, exports and trade deficit, corporate profits, stock market returns, things like that. During this recovery, we have seen the economy start adding jobs again, albeit anemic and we have only recovered ~$1.8 million of the ~$9 million jobs lost, but the employment numbers are trending in the right direction, May was a bad month for new job adds. GDP growth is positive, albeit anemic, but trending in the right direction. Exports have steadily improved and trending in the right direction. Corporations are strapped with cash and the Dow Jones has gone from about 6,000 at the bottom to about 12,000 now, we are experiencing a pullback now, not yet a correction of over 10% drop. Housing continues to be a sore spot, that real estate bubble was brutal and is wrecking havoc on the economy. State governments are not defaulting right now at above normal default rates, which is good. Normally, economies accelerate quickly out of recession, which we have seen this time around, then they level out into a cruise control phase where acceleration slows down, that is where we are now. We have accelerated out of the recession, the economy is trying to find a level footing, this data is often interpreted as the economy is faltering and heading back into recession by the bears, the bulls will say this is typically and the economy is leveling out to sustainable growth rates.


The mentioned economic measures of an economy and their current measures are why economists say we are in a recovery right now. Now, what is in debate is whether we will head into a long-term cyclical bull market or if we will dip back into recession. Of coarse, there are the bulls and bears. The bears say these trends are not sustainable and that we are heading into a double dip, they caution that when the Feds pull out the stimulus, demand will be significantly impaired, they caution the US gov't will not get their act together resulting in disruption to the dollar and US gov't debt, they also caution that a downgrade in US credit rating will increase US borrowing costs and further exacerbate the problem, they also cite Europe's sovereign debt issues as cause for concern. The bulls predict a long-term cyclical bull market and predict the Feds will withdraw the stimulus in a prudent fashion, not prematurely withdrawing stimulus and putting the recovery in jeopardy and while not waiting to long so as to incite inflation. They also state that the US Govt will eventually get their act together and get the fiscal house in order, they mention that Germany will step up and assist Greece with a restructuring of their debt, they also break down the unemployment numbers and state the headline 9.1% number does not tell the story and that different labor segments are performing and repairing differently.


Well, just some thoughts, I am missing a lot of information here, there is just a lot that goes into drilling down on an economy to determine it health and vitality.

[piglett]

well Colgan if we do have a 2nd dip , how soon & how bad could that sort of thing be ?
also would it be i quick dip or a long lasting kind of thing ??
 
 
thanks
pig

[Researcher]

Colgando you make good points but we are not in your average recession.Here's a good article for you:

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2076568,00.html

                                 

       What we had was a housing market crash and financial meltdown that has revealed an unemployment problem created by globalization.We are undergoing a major change that is being ignored and covered up.Big companies have tons of cash on hand but they are not hiring because they don't have to.They are poised to survive the big changes that are coming. Wages are stagnant and many are unemployed.Soon people won't be spending much money because they won't have it and this is going to hurt companies profits but with the big stash of money on hand they will be able to survive.Meanwhile the US middle class will not.

        Researcher

[Colgando]

Colgando you make good points but we are not in your average recession.Here's a good article for you:

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2076568,00.html

                                 

       What we had was a housing market crash and financial meltdown that has revealed an unemployment problem created by globalization.We are undergoing a major change that is being ignored and covered up.Big companies have tons of cash on hand but they are not hiring because they don't have to.They are poised to survive the big changes that are coming. Wages are stagnant and many are unemployed.Soon people won't be spending much money because they won't have it and this is going to hurt companies profits but with the big stash of money on hand they will be able to survive.Meanwhile the US middle class will not.

        Researcher

That is a good article, that guy seems smart and serious. I can't argue with anything he said. He is slightly more optimistic than the article posted by UC, he sees light at the end of the tunnel, albeit 5 to 10 years out, which is a reasonable forecast for the US to return to pre-recession growth levels IMO. The writer of this article is aiming high with the end goal of returning to pre-recession growth rates and job growth rates. With that being the goal, I do not see the US getting there anytime soon, in agreement with the writer. Anemic, to slightly better than anemic, growth rates is what I would like to see personally, if we are trending up, I think that is the best we may be able to do for the time being, the game has changed, it is a global playing field in we are now competing with an emerging middle class in China, India, Brazil and other countries. I don't want to see a situation where we continue to lose jobs, the economy starts contracting again, house prices continue to decline, mortgage defaults continue to happen and do not bottom, that would be bad.


Yep, no argument there as I have stated before and as the writer of the article suggests, middle-class americans skilled with their hands are in for a tough stretch. I agree with the writer that people need to be more thoughtful in what they get skilled in. He makes a good point with US companies not investing in the US and that they will build factories in China, Brazil and India, it makes good business sense for CEOs to do this who are motivated by profit, earnings per share, and growth in their firm's stock price. It would be irresponsible for a CEO to build factories in the US right now given the landscape and global economic realities and if he did, the board of directors would remove him and hire a CEO that made more prudent business decisions.


Interesting with the mortgage states, in fact, the banks have absorbed a lot of the mortgage defaults through charge-offs, so having the gov't come in to bail out the rest would just be shifting the losses from the private sector to the gov'ts balance sheet. Regardless of who absorbs the losses, they have to be absorbed and the inventory of houses has to clear.


Just sayin, not getting to pre-recession growth rates does not equal a greater depression, it may equal a decade of flat to anemic growth with chronic unemployment within certain labor groups, not to uncommon when compared to other countries of the world. I think we have become spoiled in the US over the past 20 years and now we will have a new economic reality to deal with.

[Colgando]

well Colgan if we do have a 2nd dip , how soon & how bad could that sort of thing be ?
also would it be i quick dip or a long lasting kind of thing ??
 
 
thanks
pig

Hey Pig,


If we do have a double dip, I think it could happen over the next 6 to 18 month period. When the Fed Reserve withdraws its massive stimulus, when all the Obama Administration's stimulus runs out, what will the Govt do about their debt problems, will the housing market continue to decline, it will be at a minimum a precarious time over the next 6 to 18 months as all of this shakes out.


IMO, if we do dip, it will be bad, very bad, UC and FT's predictions become even more plausible at this point. The ramifications of a double dip with the world's largest economy I think would be catastrophic and long-lasting for the US, the Federal Govt would not have the money to do anything about it, the Fed Reserve's monetary policy would be a failure, what would they do, just print more money which would have been proven to be ineffective, job growth would come to a halt and maybe lay-offs would start again, further exacerbating the mortgage problem, further undermining the financial system, further undermining lending, consumer confidence would be at the most negative level, the economy would become paralyzed after what we have been through the past 3 years, with the US consumer not spending, they would spend even less now, even less tax revenue flowing to the treasury, further exacerbating the US Govt budget problems. The downward spiral I could see as being really bad, stoke class warfare, we could get riots in the street. It would not be the end of the world, because the emerging markets, India, China, Brazil and others are becoming economic contenders in their own rights and become less dependent on the US with each passing day. US Multi-nationals would continue to make money and just take their business and cash overseas and get paid, the emerging market middle class would continue to emerge, the decline of consumers for their products in the US would put downward pressure on the profits and growth, but I do not think the US derailing would necessarily derail the global economy, it certainly would not help and would be a drag, but the world at large would press forward IMO, which was not necessarily the case 10, 15 years ago.

[Researcher]

   Colgando I'm glad to see that you are remaining positive about our economic future.I don't see it that way myself.I still remember Bush and alot of financial experts saying that everything was OK when we were on the edge of the cliff we went over.I think we are being told crap again.For these liberal media outlets to be talking about how bad things are going to get is scary to me.There is a liberal in the White House and the only reason I can think they are doing this is to wake Obama up to the fact that no president has ever been re elected with unemployment above 7%.I think people are just clueless enough to re elect him...that's scary also.

   But the Republicans haven't offered a viable candidate yet.Many of the conservatives are lost also.They want to return to Reagan policies which probably won't work.We are dealing with a different situation here.Even the Time article stated one of the myths is that entrepreneurs can get us out of the unemployment situation...I agree, it is a myth. About the best thing that can happen is if the US middle class voluntarily cut back to the bare necessities.Downsize and cut back like companies do. Sure there will be even more job loss and company profits would plummet but it's probably going to happen anyway.If the middle class did this voluntarily they could set themselves up to weather the storm rather than being a victim of it.

     I'm just not as positive as you are on this.I just don't see what is going to bring back employment.I know economists say it will take 5 years to return to where we were but are they saying what will happen to return us? They were pretty clueless about our recent meltdown and I think they still are.

        Researcher

[michaelb]

All this talk about economic theory reminds me of a couple of quotes by two famous Okies (hint: the first one never met a man he didn't like, the second one wrote This Land is Your Land and a couple of hundred other songs as well)

W.R.: An economist? Well that's a feller who's been to college and studied on these things, and his guess is almost as good as yours.

W.G.: What is money? Don't know, never had none.

[robert angel]

I wonder if when the crisis hits China and a billion of so disenfranchised, impoverished Chinese start getting upset too, what'll happen then? I hear there's more simmering resentment under the surface than most realize or care about.

[Researcher]

   Those are good quotes Michealb.Here is a quote from an old friend of mine: It's only money, it'll go away.

    Another saying I remember from my childhood.A friend of my Dad's use to say: There is no need in worrying about anything because it's not going to be alright any way.


      Researcher

[Researcher]

I wonder if when the crisis hits China and a billion of so disenfranchised, impoverished Chinese start getting upset too, what'll happen then? I hear there's more simmering resentment under the surface than most realize or care about.

  Hey Robert the Chinese government takes care of itself.Here is just a little reminder of how civil unrest is handled there:


                     



   Researcher

[fathertime]

Hey FT...well, since we have been in recovery, major economic data has been trending in a good direction, some areas are anemic of course, but from a holistic point of view on the economy, the economy is currently recovering. That is not to say that a double dip recession could not happen where the economy starts trending down again.


This recovery has the same characteristics as most recoveries, when an economy transitions from recession to expansion during the business cycle, cyclical trends kick in, so economist look to trends in unemployment, GDP, exports and trade deficit, corporate profits, stock market returns, things like that. During this recovery, we have seen the economy start adding jobs again, albeit anemic and we have only recovered ~$1.8 million of the ~$9 million jobs lost, but the employment numbers are trending in the right direction, May was a bad month for new job adds. GDP growth is positive, albeit anemic, but trending in the right direction. Exports have steadily improved and trending in the right direction. Corporations are strapped with cash and the Dow Jones has gone from about 6,000 at the bottom to about 12,000 now, we are experiencing a pullback now, not yet a correction of over 10% drop. Housing continues to be a sore spot, that real estate bubble was brutal and is wrecking havoc on the economy. State governments are not defaulting right now at above normal default rates, which is good. Normally, economies accelerate quickly out of recession, which we have seen this time around, then they level out into a cruise control phase where acceleration slows down, that is where we are now. We have accelerated out of the recession, the economy is trying to find a level footing, this data is often interpreted as the economy is faltering and heading back into recession by the bears, the bulls will say this is typically and the economy is leveling out to sustainable growth rates.


The mentioned economic measures of an economy and their current measures are why economists say we are in a recovery right now. Now, what is in debate is whether we will head into a long-term cyclical bull market or if we will dip back into recession. Of coarse, there are the bulls and bears. The bears say these trends are not sustainable and that we are heading into a double dip, they caution that when the Feds pull out the stimulus, demand will be significantly impaired, they caution the US gov't will not get their act together resulting in disruption to the dollar and US gov't debt, they also caution that a downgrade in US credit rating will increase US borrowing costs and further exacerbate the problem, they also cite Europe's sovereign debt issues as cause for concern. The bulls predict a long-term cyclical bull market and predict the Feds will withdraw the stimulus in a prudent fashion, not prematurely withdrawing stimulus and putting the recovery in jeopardy and while not waiting to long so as to incite inflation. They also state that the US Govt will eventually get their act together and get the fiscal house in order, they mention that Germany will step up and assist Greece with a restructuring of their debt, they also break down the unemployment numbers and state the headline 9.1% number does not tell the story and that different labor segments are performing and repairing differently.


Well, just some thoughts, I am missing a lot of information here, there is just a lot that goes into drilling down on an economy to determine it health and vitality.

Thanks for injecting your thoughts here Colgado on the positives of our economy.  Here is why I don't buy any of it. 
 

 You seem to buying these numbers the govt is feeding us. I did also until I opened my mind a little more.  Upon further investigation I’ve concluded the numbers we are fed are no longer designed to give an accurate view, their purpose is to make the government look as good as possible.  GDP, unemployment, are just utter bs.  I’ve read at length how these numbers are arrived at and they don’t accurately measure what they are supposed to.  If our unemployment was actually only 9.1 that would be good, but our actual workforce (number of people working) is SHRINKING.  The govt. makes the assumption that the people in the 16-64 age bracket that are suddenly not working are ‘retired’ or ‘homemakers’ or ‘students’, when in fact these people are just frustrated and picking their ass.  Here is an article from earlier this year that illustrates the point.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/07/us-usa-economy-jobs-snapanalysis-idUSTRE7062XC20110107 


The number that matters is the national debt, 14.4trillion and counting.  Now explain to me how we don’t get buried by interest payments in the future.  The only viable way out is to print money and devalue our dollar.  We are NEVER paying that growing debt properly.  We don’t export enough goods and due to our ridiculous overdone lifestyle we import all sorts of stuff that winds up in landfills 6 months later, but soon we will be forced to change all of this. 


Now the govt. has injected several trillion dollars of fake money in the last couple years and we are still in the crapper.  Sure businesses have money on the sidelines and everything appears not to bad with several trillion of monopoly money the fed threw out there.   Since we are pretty much out of smack and the injections are going to have to stop, I’m curious how the hell bad this withdrawal is going to wind up being.   I am certain this is not a double dip because there has never been a recovery in real terms, this has been one continuous swirl of the crapper and now we are heading for the sewer pipes.   


Fathertime!