Survey Results - First Question

[Dan]

Hey Folks,

The survey has been in the hands of the expert consultants who are preparing the report. They have had the data for some time, and are now a couple of weeks away from producing the initial report. For those interested, you can read about the consultants who are reviewing the data and preparing the report at their website, found here --> www.statisticssolutions.com.

The final results will include, or enable, direct statistical results parsed from the provided data - comparative statistics that evaluate differences and similarities between the results of our survey with the results of other surveys - and extrapolations (I think Dr. Lani uses the term 'predictive correlations') which take the data and makes predictions of future events.

Anyway - as something of a 'teaser' I thought it might be fun to gather a little input from you all on what you expect the results to state on several important factors.

Starting with the first, and arguably, the most important, I wonder what you believe will be the result of this question:

A006: Are you divorced from your cross-cultural spouse?

In the context of this poll, it means; 'What percentage of people who marry a partner from a foreign country, end in divorce?'

This speaks to the question of divorce rate among those of us who marry a spouse from a different country. For reference, consider the stats from this website about US divorce -- http://www.divorcerate.org/ - with links to divorce stats in the UK and elsewhere.

This poll will run for 7 days - at which time I will post the raw results from the survey we conducted.

Enjoy!

- Dan

[jm21-2]

Well, isn't that assuming divorcees are just as easily contacted and just as likely to answer the question? I can imagine if I were divorced I might not want anything to do with a survey like this, or would be harder to get in contact with because I distanced myself from others involved in the process.

[Dan]

Well, isn't that assuming divorcees are just as easily contacted and just as likely to answer the question? I can imagine if I were divorced I might not want anything to do with a survey like this, or would be harder to get in contact with because I distanced myself from others involved in the process.

There are a lot of issues that could, and probably will, be raised when we publish the results. Users/readers of the results will need to determine for themselves if they believe the outputs. In terms of the sample and whether or not there was any skewing, I suppose there is always some possibility of a skewed sample. We broadcast emails to more than 200,000 people - we promoted the survey through a Press Release to the mass media - and as you probably recall, we promoted the survey through our outlets here at PL and elsewhere. There may be some natural skewing of respondents given the source of the awareness campaign - but the experts tell me any skewing, given the massive size of our distribution, would be statistically insignificant.

FWIW

- Dan

[Dan]

For comparison purposes, US divorce rate is reported to be "close to 50%".

It should be realized that the "close to 50%" divorce rate refers to the percentage of marriages entered into during a particular year that are projected to end in divorce or separation before one spouse dies.

That is the comparative stat we are using for purposes of this divorce rate.

- Dan

[zack]

I think the results will be more skewed by the fact that men who marry abroad are more likey to rush into marriage for obvious reasons. I wish that couples who marry within a few weeks after meeting could be eliminated from the study, but that is easier said than done.

Just my 2 cents

Zack

[Dan]

I think the results will be more skewed by the fact that men who marry abroad are more likey to rush into marriage for obvious reasons. I wish that couples who marry within a few weeks after meeting could be eliminated from the study, but that is easier said than done.

Just my 2 cents

Zack

We *do* have the ability to parse the data so that any 'one-week-wonders' are excluded from the results. Good idea zack. If I get some time, I'll take a look at that as well.

- Dan

[william3rd]

either some of the survey participants forgot to take off their rose colored glasses or they were equating their own personal success stories to the world at large. . . .

[Dan]

And the results of our survey, based on more than 1,700 validated responses is:

40.76 %

While a 41 % divorce rate is still quite significant - it is ALSO significant that the rate is nearly 10 full percentage points LESS THAN the domestic divorce rate.

- Dan

Please take a look at our NEXT survey question poll -- http://www.planet-love.com/forum/index.php?topic=3900.0

[Dan]

I think the results will be more skewed by the fact that men who marry abroad are more likey to rush into marriage for obvious reasons. I wish that couples who marry within a few weeks after meeting could be eliminated from the study, but that is easier said than done.

Just my 2 cents

Zack

Zack,

You piqued my curiosity, hence, I looked at the data and came up with the following table that, I believe, addresses your concern.

Courtship Length	Divorce Rate
0 - 2 Weeks	45.00 %
2 - 4 Weeks	58.70 %
1 - 2 Months	48.39 %
2 - 4 Months	48.18 %
4 - 6 Months	39.43 %
6 - 9 Months	41.26 %
9 - 12 Months	38.89 %
1 - 2 Years	39.34 %
Other	35.84 %

From the results in the table, it looks like those marriages with a courtship less than 4 months, suffered a substantially higher rate of divorce than those with more than 4 months of courtship.

BTW - n = 1,710

What do y'all think?

- Dan

[jm21-2]

I assume the the courtship length includes the long-distance portion (e.g. communicating over e-mail/chat/webcam)? It'd be interesting to see what the divorce rate was for couples who had a lot of long-distance communication but very little time face-to-face. I suppose that's outside the data though.

[Dan]

I assume the the courtship length includes the long-distance portion (e.g. communicating over e-mail/chat/webcam)? It'd be interesting to see what the divorce rate was for couples who had a lot of long-distance communication but very little time face-to-face. I suppose that's outside the data though.

We had two questions in the survey that bear on this - as follows:

A015: How much time elapsed between your first contact (email, telephone or meeting) and your decision to marry?

A016: How much time elapsed between your first meeting and your marriage to your current/former spouse?

In the case of the table I presented, I looked ONLY at A016, so it is that period after "first meeting" to marriage - and does NOT include the long-distance component.

FWIW

- Dan

[utopiacowboy]

No matter how you look at it, that's a lot of divorces.

[Looking4Wife]

if I were divorced... (I) would be harder to get in contact with because I distanced myself from others involved in the process.

Actually many guys after marrying a Latina, suddenly become harder to contact for lots of good reasons :-)

But I guess the survey doesn't take that into account either... so hopefully its a wash :-)

[zack]

Dan,

I'm not trying to focus only on the negative aspects of your survey. I'm glad you are doing it and I commend you for it. I'm just trying to prepare you for the criticisms that will come  your way if you publish this information.

I think that foreign brides is too new an endeavor to be studied in such a way, at least not accurately. Such studies usually define a successful marriage as a marriage that lasts until "death does them part", correct? Having said this, isn't it true that among the subjects in your survey who are still married to a foreign lady, won't some of them get divorced in the future and hence increase the divorce rate higher than 40%?

The foreign bride endeavor didn't become popular until about 20 years ago. That is not enough time to do an accurate divorce rate study about this quest (in my opinion).

Zack

[jm21-2]

It's my understanding that divorce statistics rarely, if ever, research all the way until death does them part. Most actually just compare marriages in a year to divorces in that year, and don't actually track marriages at all. Others that actually track marriages generally seem to have a 10 year cut off (e.g. if you last 10 years, we'll count it as a success). As far as I know, there hasn't been a thorough study conducted on the subject, going to death does them part (and what if that is only 2-3 years due to an accident or sudden illness? How do you count re-marriages and people with multiple divorces? etc?).

And of course, there are some very unhappy folks out there who have been in a bad marriage for 15 years...I have a hard time counting them as a success. And in some cases, the old guy who spends 3 years married to a foreign girl who was way out of his league may have had a happier marriage in some ways than other guys.

[catz]

One of the goals of this survey is to get some real information to dispute (or verify) the stats that have been used by the radical feminist front in making claims to support their positions and to push laws into place like IMBRA was.

As this international relationship/marriage "thing" has been around for quite a long time it would be good to start getting some real numbers so that those who make claims about it cannot do it in a vacuum of information.

FWIW

[Dan]

Dan,

I'm not trying to focus only on the negative aspects of your survey. I'm glad you are doing it and I commend you for it. I'm just trying to prepare you for the criticisms that will come  your way if you publish this information.

I think that foreign brides is too new an endeavor to be studied in such a way, at least not accurately. Such studies usually define a successful marriage as a marriage that lasts until "death does them part", correct? Having said this, isn't it true that among the subjects in your survey who are still married to a foreign lady, won't some of them get divorced in the future and hence increase the divorce rate higher than 40%?

The foreign bride endeavor didn't become popular until about 20 years ago. That is not enough time to do an accurate divorce rate study about this quest (in my opinion).

Zack

Zack,

There are a gazillion ways to look at divorce stats. Here are a couple of links that serve to prove my point:

www.divorcereform.org/rates.html

www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p70-80.pdf

If, after looking through all those numbers, your head is not yet spinning (mine does), then the simplest way to look at what we are reporting is - these are the REAL numbers from a fairly random sampling of people in cross-cultural relationships. In terms of marital longevity, we had some people who divorced after only a few months, and we had at least one person who divorced after 17 years of marriage - and everything in between.

You see - one part of your 'hypothesis' is that "foreign brides is too new an endeavor" - but I think the reality is that we can find significant evidence of this same phenomenon for decades (maybe centuries). Foreign wars, especially, create a great deal of activity in terms of cross-cultural marriage.

Anyway, the 'safest' and most accurate way to look at it is - the survey we conducted reported a divorce rate higher than 40% - plain and simple. How that compares to other stats is something our consultant is addressing. In terms of practical application, it should be a 'heads-up' to anyone interested in this pursuit to be aware of the facts that a significant proportion of these marriages fail.

Make sense.

- Dan

[zack]

Fair enough guys. Remember that I am on your side and I'm only trying to help.

I agree that this survey is a very good start and is a hell of a lot better than having no numbers at all regarding this subject. Personally, I think that the divorce rate among foreign bride marriages IS less than domestic rates. I hope that this survey is well-received and helps to support our beliefs.

Thanks for your efforts and good luck.

Zack

[Dan]

Fair enough guys. Remember that I am on your side and I'm only trying to help.

I agree that this survey is a very good start and is a hell of a lot better than having no numbers at all regarding this subject. Personally, I think that the divorce rate among foreign bride marriages IS less than domestic rates. I hope that this survey is well-received and helps to support our beliefs.

Thanks for your efforts and good luck.

Zack

Zack,

No worries. Your comments are quite helpful and are appreciated.

As for the divorce rate, from our survey I think we are on safe ground with stating that cross-cultural divorce rates are no more, and may be somewhat less than, domestic divorce rates for the US population at large.

In terms of the survey supporting our beliefs, well - it may, and it may not. If you look at the third question, about contributing factors to divorce, when we publish the results of the survey, it may NOT be consistent with general belief as evidenced in the poll.

I think it is better that we know the REAL truth, and deal with it - rather than the wild speculations that have been so often promulgated in the past.

In any case, your questions and challenges are sincerely appreciated. We did the very best we could to develop a serious and credible survey of cross-cultural marriage and divorce. It is certainly not perfect, but I challenge anyone to produce better (i.e. more credible) data and stats than what we have now. And BTW, I expect our greatest challenges to the survey are still ahead of us. We have not yet released the report, nor published the findings. I am simply pushing a few of the results out ahead of the formal report. When that report is released, my guess is it will draw a fair amount of attention - and criticism. Challenges now are just warming us up for the road ahead.

- Dan

[Ray]

The foreign bride endeavor didn't become popular until about 20 years ago. That is not enough time to do an accurate divorce rate study about this quest (in my opinion).

Zack

Actually, the foreign bride thing has been around much longer than 20 years and was quite popular, particularly among military members.

I married my first wife (foreign bride) over 36 years ago...

Ray

[joemc58]

Hey Ray,
             Some time back I was watching a show on TFC. And they introduce a Kano married a Pinay
              60 years ago. During WW 2 . 

[Jeff S]

I know dozens of Japanese "war brides" too, many from the occupation of Japan for 7 years after WWII. In fact, I'd suspect that only recently the most common Asian American mixed couples has changed from Japanese and American to Filipina and American. Walking through the bigger Japanese grocery stores here in LA on the weekend, probably 1/3 of the couples are mixed race - from 18 to 80 years old. This is nothing new.

- Jeff

[chameleon]

Frankly, if I had to guess, I'd bet that too great an age difference is the biggest problem and that it has nothing to do with cross-culture marriages. Men come on here and delude themselves about what they can get. Ya, in country, you'll do really well, but to expect everything to remain the same once she's brought back to your country is folly if you're not somewhere within the same ballpark of physical attractiveness or other areas of compatibility.


I'm 31, which is young for this site, and even I don't date 23 year olds anymore. Forget about whether age differences are accepted in their culture or not. The maturity just isn't there and they change so much from that age into their late 20s when they kinda normalize.


Those #s are still scary, but like the domestic divorce rate, a lot can be done to mitigate the risks. 1) not marrying until over 25 2) making over 75k/yr 3) being educated

[braziliangirl]

Frankly, if I had to guess, I'd bet that too great an age difference is the biggest problem and that it has nothing to do with cross-culture marriages.

What would be a too great age difference? 10 years? 15 years?

What is usually accepted there in the US?

[chameleon]

What would be a too great age difference? 10 years? 15 years?

What is usually accepted there in the US?

My post is probably too simplistic.


First and foremost, regular divorce stats show that by marrying over the age of 25, chance of divorce drops substantially, so i think there's a minimum age when it's a good idea to marry, for a number of reasons, emotional maturity being one of them. The life experience you have being slightly older is also important. Part of that is the knowledge that finding someone you're really compatible and good with is very hard, and shouldn't be casually thrown away over a minor difference or flaw.


I don't think there's an absolute age range that works or doesn't work, but as I said, I'm 31, and I don't think I'd date a 21 year old, generally speaking. Most just aren't going to be mature enough and will change so much over the following years that at 25 they might be totally different people and all of a sudden incompatible. People don't change as quickly the older they get. I've read that 27 is the age by which a personality is really set, by and large. I don't know if that's true but when I think about myself and the people I know, it seems true.


What's accepted? Well, as a 31 year old lets just say that i get comments from dating 23-24 year olds. I don't care, but i get them. I think the age difference matters a lot less once you start talking about women in their upper 20s or older.