GROUND-BREAKING STUDY! Survey of Cross-Cultural Marriage and Divorce, RELEASED

[Dan]

Email not displaying correctly? View it in your browser. International Relations and GoodWife Press Release July 15, 2008 MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT! International Relations and GoodWife.com announce the most important new initiative since IMBRA. To put to rest many of the nagging and unanswered questions raised by various feminist organizations, and others with ignorant or malicious agendas, the first comprehensive Mail Order Bride Survey is now available to address issues of Cross-Cultural Marriage and Divorce. The online URL where the survey may be found is here -- http://www.goodwife.com/survey/index.php?sid=24353&lang=en Construction of the Survey While the survey requires only 15 minutes to complete the questions, the survey design required several months of meticulous attention and re-design. It involved professional researchers from three universities - Depaul, Georgia State University, and Notre Dame, as well as review by several notable immigration attorneys and others active in the field of international dating and marriage. Do not be fooled by the economy of questions. With only 20 questions, we will be able to address issues such as: Divorce rate of cross-cultural marriages. Top 'N' causes of divorce in cross-cultural marriages Age difference contribution to divorce rate Education level influence on divorce rate Income level influence on divorce rate Influence of children of a former marriage on divorce rate Influence of youth on divorce rate (if younger when married, it increases divorce rate - maybe) Mean, Median, Mode of length of cross-cultural marriages that fail Influence of short courtship on divorce Influence of IMB on divorce rate Many other answers The 'End Game' The target number of valid responses is 5,000. It is expected that we will need to disqualify some percentage of responses, hence, we are seeking a population of at least 6,500 responses to achieve a target of 5,000 valid responses. Once we have received the necessary number of valid responses, we will engage a third-party to certify the overall survey results as valid. Upon completion of the validated results, a final report will be released. If you have any questions, please visit us at RussianWomenDiscussion.com or Planet-Love.com where I will be posting this announcement and fielding questions from our members. Copyright (C) 2008 International Relations All rights reserved.

[jm21-2]

6500 seems an awfully high number...are there other sites involved besides PL and RWD?

How will researching the divorce rate in these marriages allay the fears of feminists? Their focus, as far as IMBRA and law-making are concerned, seems entirely on the risks of DV and murder when an abusive guy goes abroad and marries a girl.

It would be really interesting to see some of the statistics drawn from the survey, and would be great for guys seeking wives abroad, but I don't see how it would affect the feminists in any way. You show them that arranged marriages have a very high success rate compared to "love" marriages, and it won't make a feminist any less disgusted with the idea of an arranged marriage. The same goes for this...they'll hear "marriage broker" or "marriage agency," go "eww," and that will be that.

[Dan]

6500 seems an awfully high number...are there other sites involved besides PL and RWD?

How will researching the divorce rate in these marriages allay the fears of feminists? Their focus, as far as IMBRA and law-making are concerned, seems entirely on the risks of DV and murder when an abusive guy goes abroad and marries a girl.

It would be really interesting to see some of the statistics drawn from the survey, and would be great for guys seeking wives abroad, but I don't see how it would affect the feminists in any way. You show them that arranged marriages have a very high success rate compared to "love" marriages, and it won't make a feminist any less disgusted with the idea of an arranged marriage. The same goes for this...they'll hear "marriage broker" or "marriage agency," go "eww," and that will be that.

Yes, 6500 *is* a large number - and one that would be considered credible by just about any source.

There is a wide-scale effort underway to stimulate participation. More than 750 agencies have already been contacted and asked to disseminate the URL to the survey. There are announcements here, at RussianWomenDiscussion, and at GoodWife. Several of the major Men's groups have been contacted and asked to disseminate the survey. There will be a Press Release issued to the media in a few hours.

We shall see if it generates the requisite attention and participation to create a valid result. If it does not - then we deserve to continue to be flung about on the flood of misinformation and political agendas.

As for the feminists - I am not necessarily looking to sway their opinions. I learned some time ago that zealots are not swayed with facts. At the same time, I urge them to disseminate the survey to all their constituents as well. I honestly and sincerely do not wish, and will not allow, the results of the survey to be manipulated in a way that would promote an agenda. I have my expectations as to the outcomes, but I could easily be surprised if the hyperbole we hear in the press is the least bit accurate.

BTW - the survey *does* touch on DV, and asks for violence to be rated among the issues that may have led to divorce. While not comprehensive treatment of the issue, it opens the door to follow-up surveys, and the final questions asks if respondents would be willing to participate on follow-ups to address questions that will naturally result from the conduct of this initial survey.

Make sense?

- Dan

[Dan]

A hardcopy version of the survey is attached to this post. It may be downloaded and completed manually, then faxed in to record results.

- Dan

[jm21-2]

OK. It seemed from the original post/ad's wording, to me at least, that the survey would be used to directly refute the claims of feminist organizations and referenced IMBRA (both of which have much to do with concerns of DV, murder, taking advantage of simple-minded desperate foreign girls, etc.) so I was a bit surprised when the information mentioned in the post/ad that the survey would provide were related to divorce more than anything. Anyways, It sounds like a great survey, especially if couples gave follow-ups.

[Ray]

A few questions:

1. When we register for the survey, is the survey itself anonymous or is there a link between the registration ID and the survey submitted? I won’t be providing my telephone number on the survey.

2. Must there be a telephone number in order to validate the survey?

3. What’s to keep someone from submitting dozens or even hundreds of bogus surveys?

4. If there has been a 2nd cross-cultural marriage, can you submit 2 surveys with the same registration ID?

5. For the purposes of the survey, is an annulment synonymous with divorce?

6. Are there any plans to send a copy of the final results to the registration e-mail address?

[Dan]

A few questions:

1. When we register for the survey, is the survey itself anonymous or is there a link between the registration ID and the survey submitted? I won’t be providing my telephone number on the survey.

2. Must there be a telephone number in order to validate the survey?

3. What’s to keep someone from submitting dozens or even hundreds of bogus surveys?

4. If there has been a 2nd cross-cultural marriage, can you submit 2 surveys with the same registration ID?

5. For the purposes of the survey, is an annulment synonymous with divorce?

6. Are there any plans to send a copy of the final results to the registration e-mail address?

>>A few questions:<<

Answers follow.

>>1. When we register for the survey, is the survey itself anonymous or is there a link between the registration ID and the survey submitted? I won’t be providing my telephone number on the survey.<<

There is a 'token' passed to identify the respondent. The token is anonymous, and there is no way - even in the deep innards of the database - for me, or anyone, to match the token with a person. The token, however, is how the system identifies multiple submissions.

If anyone is especially concerned about anonymity, they can always complete the survey manually and fax it in.

>>2. Must there be a telephone number in order to validate the survey?<<

No, the telephone number is requested for an instance in which that one survey might otherwise be invalidated. In other words, if all the validity checks on a given survey pass OK, then there is no need to call anyone. If one of the validity checks raises a flag, then there are two options - invalidate the survey and discard it - or, possibly (depends on which check is violated), call the respondent for clarification. The hope is to validate as many surveys as possible.

>>3. What’s to keep someone from submitting dozens or even hundreds of bogus surveys?<<

Firstly, there is the 'token' I mentioned in item 1. Next, there are a series of checks - some performed by the software, and some performed during the validation phase of the survey - all designed to ferret out any bogus surveys. Bottom line is to have a 'clean' result - and if there are questions about validity of a survey, it will be discarded.

>>4. If there has been a 2nd cross-cultural marriage, can you submit 2 surveys with the same registration ID?<<

The survey asks about the marriage leading to immigration. If *both* cross-cultural marriages led to immigration, then it would be up to the respondent to select one.

>>5. For the purposes of the survey, is an annulment synonymous with divorce?<<

In general terms, yes - although I suppose different jurisdictions may have different definitions that could lead to some confusion.

>>6. Are there any plans to send a copy of the final results to the registration e-mail address?<<

Not specifically. Plans for publication of results include posting them here, at RWD, and at GoodWife. We also plan to issue a Press Release once the stats are available. We will consider notifying everyone via email when the survey results are available and at least informing them of where they might find the results.

BTW - we are also considering posting periodic results as surveys are completed. I want to be absolutely certain there is no identifying information in the database before doing so - and am pretty confident that will not be a problem. I also want to check with the 'experts' to see if release of interim results might be seen as having an effect on final results, in which case I would not release them until the survey is completed.

Any more questions - fire away.

- Dan

[Dan]

A quick status report.

Slightly more than 24 hours after I posted the survey notice here at RWD and PL - and a bit less than 24 hours after an email announcement was sent - we have at the moment 121 survey responses.

There is a press release scheduled in a few hours that is likely to not have an immediate effect, but will build momentum over a few weeks.

We are underway.

Thanks to those already completing the survey - and to anyone not yet taking it - PLEASE spend the 15 minutes (or less) required to add your survey to the database.

Finally, an appeal - PLEASE send the survey URL (webpage) to anyone and everyone you know. If you have groups that gather in your area, please make sure THEY all know about this - call them, write them, do whatever. Please take a few minutes to urge your friends/colleagues/partners/associates - anyone that fits the demographic we seek to complete the survey.

- Dan

[Dan]

Quick Update Stats on the MOB Survey:

As of 19July2008, 12:16 PM EDT, we have 163 responses to the MOB Survey. Of those, 121 are fully-completed, and 42 are partially-completed.

13% of respondents are female - 87% are male.

Some interesting results from the current stats, but with such a small sample, they are not yet reliable.

PLEASE - tell all your friends. Call them. Write them. Let them know about this survey and its importance. I have been surprised in talking with friends here locally that SHOULD already know about it - and they do not! Make sure everyone you know is aware of the survey, and encourage them to complete it ASAP.

Thanks!

- Dan

[Dave H]

 I also want to check with the 'experts' to see if release of interim results might be seen as having an effect on final results, in which case I would not release them until the survey is completed.

- Dan

Hi Dan,


First let me disqualify myself as an "expert." But, IMHO releasing the interim results before the survey is completed could have a direct effect on the final results, thus invalidating the survey! As anxious as we all are to view the results, favorable or adverse, I believe the results should not be released until the survey is completed, the results tabulated and certified. It appears that you are thinking that yourself.

I will notify some orher cross cultural couples I know about the survey. Thank You for your efforts! Good Luck!

Dave

[Dan]

Hey Everyone!

Quick Update on the Survey for Cross-Cultural Marriage and Divorce.

We now have nearly 700 respondents to the survey. The proportion of men to women is still running at about 10% women and 90% men.

If anyone would like to receive notification of the survey results when they are completed, please subscribe here -- http://goodwife.com/phplist/?p=subscribe&id=1. Of course, I will keep everyone posted about the survey status here at PL, and at RWD.

If you have not completed the survey, please do so now - and importantly (I will sound like a 'broken record') - please spread the word!

- Dan

[Dan]

One more quick update as we crossed a milestone!

We now have more than 1,000 registered respondents! Since the survey allows a respondent to partially complete the survey and then later return to complete it, there is some difference between the number of completed responses (now more than 800) and the number of people who have registered.

It is worth noting that we have also receiving some faxed surveys. Those seem to be coming in from respondent's who have a slightly unusual circumstance - such as more than one cross-cultural marriage to report.

As I wrote earlier - please spread the word. Let all your friends in the Cross-Cultural marriage communities know about this important survey.

- Dan

[Dan]

One more thing. A request.

Can those of you who have 'connections' with agency owners or forum owners or other relevant contacts - PLEASE CONTACT THEM and urge them to HELP us in gathering data. We need them to send email notices to all their past, and current, customers - telling them of the Survey and where to find the online survey, or the printable survey.

We need ALL the support and participation we can get.

- Dan

[Dan]

As you all know, the first ever formal study into issues of Cross-Cultural Marriage and Divorce was commissioned by P-L's parent organization in mid-July of this year. Since then we have been busy collecting data, validating responses, and analyzing results.

Attached is our presentation of findings with reference to the Statistics Solutions, Inc. report and endorsement.

Some of these results have been released here at P-L previously, and it has proven interesting to see how our pre-conceived notions of the answers line up with the factual data collected in our survey. (ref. Divorce Rate, Age Difference, and Causes of Divorce)

As in any study, there are aspects that might have been improved, or that are simply not best-served by the particular methodology and approach we chose to employ. While there are some who will question validity of the results, my challenge to them is really quite simple. Until and unless another organization (or individual) produces a more credible product, the results found herein are the most credible ever produced. We welcome any and all future efforts to refine, expand, or even refute - the results we publish here. Our goal from the outset has been to get at the truth through facts, and if there is a subsequent study that improves upon what we have accomplished here - we welcome that effort.

Enjoy!

- Dan

[michaelb]

All the women's home countries, except United States and Canada, are FSU countries. That strikes me as strange. I know, you faithfully reported what responses you were given and you offered it out to the Latin board, but I guess none of us responded?

[Dan]

All the women's home countries, except United States and Canada, are FSU countries. That strikes me as strange. I know, you faithfully reported what responses you were given and you offered it out to the Latin board, but I guess none of us responded?

There was a representative sample of male respondents with wives from Asia and Latin America. There were very few female respondents outside the Former Soviet Union countries.

The survey asked for a couple of questions. It asked (paraphrasing) - what is YOUR home country? and it asked - what is the home country of your spouse?

In the case of men answering the question about the home country of their spouse, we have a very broad sampling of responses and it included quite a number with spouses from Asia and Latin America.

In the case where we look ONLY at the responses provided by female registrants - and that is what was reported - there were very few other than FSU countries.

- Dan

[michaelb]

So you actually have 4 sets of numbers:
I'm a man, and my home country is _____ (apparently one you published)
I'm a man, and my spouse's home country is _____
I'm a woman, and my home country is ______ (the one was curious about)
I'm a woman, and my spouse's home country is ______

The way it is published look like only two:
All involved men's home countries _______
All involved women's home countries _______

Please publish all, and label them accordingly.
Thanks

[jonno]

I dont get this. I see the 3 survey questions-Divorce Rate, Age Difference, and Causes of Divorce-but where are the factual data and findings i am hoping tell the results of these questions that are supposed to be attached?

[Dan]

I dont get this. I see the 3 survey questions-Divorce Rate, Age Difference, and Causes of Divorce-but where are the factual data and findings i am hoping tell the results of these questions that are supposed to be attached?

Did you download the PDF attached to the original message?

- Dan

[Dan]

So you actually have 4 sets of numbers:
I'm a man, and my home country is _____ (apparently one you published)
I'm a man, and my spouse's home country is _____
I'm a woman, and my home country is ______ (the one was curious about)
I'm a woman, and my spouse's home country is ______

The way it is published look like only two:
All involved men's home countries _______
All involved women's home countries _______

Please publish all, and label them accordingly.
Thanks

Michael,

>>So you actually have 4 sets of numbers<<

No, we actually have a LOT more data (sets of numbers), than what you will find contained in the report or the presentation. In fact, the consultant issued this statement:

The data collected by International Relations provides opportunities for numerous additional statistical studies. Statistics Solutions, Inc. has provided analyses on only a few of the myriad studies that might be performed with the survey data. Statistics Solutions, Inc. finds the methodology employed by International Relations to have met professional standards and providing valid results. Further use of the survey data for providing additional insight into cross-cultural marriage and divorce is encouraged.

In this specific instance, the presentation contains the numbers of respondents to the survey separated by gender.

While there is a great deal of additional data resulting from the survey, we have no plans to further access the data to produce additional results at this time. We will make the data available to professional researchers and academia following review of their request that must contain a detailed description of their intended use of the data.

I hope this helps.

- Dan

[Steve_in_FL]

Hey Dan, I think you are to be commended for the HUGE effort you have made - congratulations on a job well done!

Is there any chance that we could download the raw data in order to perform multi-variate correlation analyses?  I would be happy to share my results, and would sign any reasonable non-disclosure agreement you desired.

Thanks,

Steve

[Osa]

Good info

[jwarren]

interesting...